Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09RIGA308
2009-06-03 07:17:00
CONFIDENTIAL//NOFORN
Embassy Riga
Cable title:  

LATVIA'S JUNE 6 ELECTIONS HARD TO PREDICT - APATHY

Tags:  PGOV KDEM EUN LG 
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DE RUEHRA #0308/01 1540717
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 030717Z JUN 09 ZDK
FM AMEMBASSY RIGA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5872
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RIGA 000308 

NOFORN
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/03/2019
TAGS: PGOV KDEM EUN LG
SUBJECT: LATVIA'S JUNE 6 ELECTIONS HARD TO PREDICT - APATHY
HIGH

REF: RIGA 290

RIGA 00000308 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: Charge d'affaires a.i. Bruce Rogers. Reason: 1.4(d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RIGA 000308

NOFORN
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/03/2019
TAGS: PGOV KDEM EUN LG
SUBJECT: LATVIA'S JUNE 6 ELECTIONS HARD TO PREDICT - APATHY
HIGH

REF: RIGA 290

RIGA 00000308 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: Charge d'affaires a.i. Bruce Rogers. Reason: 1.4(d)


1. (C/NF) Summary: It is nearly impossible to predict the
outcome of Latvia's June 6 elections for local government and
the European Parliament. Changes in the electoral system,
new parties, and confusing polls all add to the uncertainty.
The results in the municipal elections, especially in Riga,
could force a change in the national coalition down the road.
There is also a decent chance that the next mayor of Riga
could be an ethnic Russian, which would be a first for a
candidate running with a party that is viewed as Russian
focused. European parliament elections are largely an
afterthought here, with the ethnic Russian parties likely to
do well. In both cases, personalities rather than policies
will be determinative. Many Latvians believe that their
votes cannot change anything, a worrying sign in a country so
recently restored to democracy. End summary.


2. (U) Latvians will vote June 6 for both municipal
governments and for Latvia's 8 members of the European
Parliament. The local elections will be the first conducted
under the territorial reforms implemented last year - instead
of over 500 municipal councils, there will be just under 120.
Also for the first time, parties must receive at least five
percent of the vote in a given municipality to win any seats
(the same as in parliamentary elections). Two new parties
that did not exist in the 2006 national elections - Civic
Union and Society for Different Politics - will also be
competing, making it likely that fewer parties can cross the
threshold. Polls show that Latvians are largely apathetic
about the parties, with as many as half of voters not having
made up their minds. A sinking economy, massive cuts in
spending, and abysmal approval for political institutions has
not translated into high voter activity. Turnout estimates
range from 45 and 60 percent, but we think it is likely to be
on the lower side.


3. (C/NF) The real battle in this election is for Riga, where
more than a third of voters live. In many municipalities,
the election will be won by persons of local prominence,

regardless of their party affiliation. In Riga, though, we
will see the best measure of the relative strength of the
parties. Most are running big names in the capital, but
there is a strong divergence between polls that measure which
person voters want to see as mayor of Riga and which party
they would like to see in power in the city. There is a real
possibility that the People's Party, which controls the
largest number of seats in the parliament, will fail to clear
the five percent hurdle in Riga. Although it will likely do
well in rural communities, failure to be in the Riga council
would be a huge blow to the party's prestige.


4. (C/NF) Three parties seemed assured of places in the Riga
council - Harmony Center (mayoral candidate: MP Nils
Usakovs),First Party/Latvia's Way (former transport minister
Ainars Slesers) and New Era (Latvian Basketball League
general secretary Edgars Juanups). The remaining parties
will fight to get over the threshold. The conventional
wisdom on the street is that Slesers will be the next mayor,
but we think it is too soon to tell. His controversial past
(including serious corruption allegations) and his
hard-charging, take-no-prisoners style make it politically
and personally difficult for other parties to work with him
and they will explore all other options before agreeing to
him as mayor. As much as ethnicity remains a fault line in
Latvia, we think Usakovs has a real chance at the job both
due to the ethnic make up of Riga and because the Latvian
parties may feel that he can't succeed in the current
economic crisis, so why not let him try and hopefully fail?
Other candidates will depend on which parties get in.
Juanups stands almost no chance, given that new Era holds the
job of PM already.


5. (C/NF) Usakovs or Slesers as mayor could have implications
for the national government, because it is very rare for the
mayor of Riga to be from a party not currently in the
national coalition. Slesers as mayor would be easier to
manage in this regard and former PM Godmanis, Slesers'
co-chair of the party, already said they are willing to join
the national coalition (reftel). Usakovs, as the
representative of a party that appeals primarily to ethnic
Russians, would be more complicated to manage since no
Russian party has ever been in the national coalition. In
any case, we think any potential changes in the national
coalition would likely occur after the summer break, when
parties fully assess the impact of the elections and the
economic situation in the country.


6. (U) Latvians are largely apathetic about elections for the

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European Parliament. The EU's advertising to promote
participation in this contest focuses on issues like border
security, food safety and GMO's, issues with little or no
resonance for Latvian voters. Party campaigns have either
focused on getting more money from Europe or on ethnic issues
(septel). The two Russian parties, PCTVL and Harmony Center,
have Tatjana Zdanoka and Alfreds Rubiks respectively at the
top of their lists. Both were active opponents of the
restoration of independence of Latvia (with Rubiks a vocal
supporter of the August 1991 putsch in Moscow) and both are
barred from running for national office in Latvia. Because
of their past, both are anathema to ethnic Latvians, who view
them as vying to be "Russia's representatives" in Moscow.
But the solidarity of ethnic Russian voters and the diffusion
of Latvian parties means that both will almost certainly be
elected, and their parties could control as many as 4 of
Latvia's 8 seats. Former FM Sandra Kalniete, former PM Ivars
Godmanis, and former economy minister (and AmCit) Krisjanis
Karins are all likely to win election to the EP as well.
Although Irish-based Libertas has fielded a slate headed by
former PM Guntars Krasts, they have gotten little traction
due to a lack of funds and a very late start.


7. (C/NF) Comment: It is surprising that the depths of
Latvia's economic crisis and repeated calls of
"throw-the-bums-out" from the public do not appear to have
resulted in higher interest in these elections or a surge for
the opposition. Indeed, the fact that Slesers is a leading
candidate for mayor of Riga baffles many elite who can't
understand why the public is focusing on his message of job
creation and dynamism instead of any number of corruption and
patronage allegations. The level of disconnect Latvians feel
from their political system, the lack of confidence that
anything will change, and their willingness to turn a blind
eye to corruption if it might create short term economic
benefit are all worrying signs about the level of
entrenchment of democracy 18 years after the restoration of
independence.
ROGERS