POLITICAL PARTY RILES UP SIMMERING ETHNIC TENSION

C O N F I D E N T I A L RIGA 000122

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/03/2019
TAGS: PHUM PGOV ASEC PREL RS LG
SUBJECT: POLITICAL PARTY RILES UP SIMMERING ETHNIC TENSION

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Bruce Rogers for reasons 1.4 (b) and (
d)


1. (C) Summary: As the Latvian economy unravels, political
parties are drawing on long-simmering ethnic tensions to
rally votes prior to local elections in June. The most brazen
example is a recent internet video intended to scare voters
away from a party aligned with ethnic Russian interests. The
upcoming March 16th commemoration of the Latvian Legionnaires
who fought for the Nazis in World War II could be a
flashpoint for further conflict. The GOL continues to
downplay the issue, while expressing concern that Moscow is
attempting to exploit tensions to embarrass Latvia or fomment
discontent among Latvia's ethnic-Russian residents. End
Summary.


2. (C) As the economy continues to decline and political
parties try to spread blame or play on Latvians'
free-floating anger and resentment, ethnic tensions have
become more pronounced. Examples include attempts to quickly
pin blame on ethnic-Russian hooligans for riots in Riga in
January, and the GOL's single-minded focus on the description
of the stateless Russian-speaking population in the USG Human
Rights Report. Animosity between Latvians and ethnic
Russians has often been used to rally votes in the past, and
it appears that it is once again emerging in the run-up to
local elections in June.


3. (C) In a new and widely-discussed video clip, right-wing
party For Fatherland and Freedom (TB/LNNK) strongly implies
that left-leaning and largely ethnic-Russian Harmony Center
(SC) hopes to cede Latvia to Russian control. This is a
serious escalation of a previously substantive back-and-forth
series between the parties. The new video includes graphics
of a map of Latvia overtaken by red flags flowing in from the
Russian border, and ends with the tagline "What is Harmony
Center aiming for?" with a shot of Latvia's freedom monument
seen through the crosshairs of a gun sight. Business and
government leaders' reactions have been largely negative, and
in private meetings with us, even the TB/LNNK Mayor of Riga
has backed away from the clip. However, the mainly rural,
working-class target audience has been receptive to the
anti-Russian message before.


4. (C) The next flashpoint for heightened tensions will be
March 16, when some Latvians commemorate the service of the
Nazi-conscript Latvian Legion in fighting against Soviet
occupation. The GOL is quick to point out that the
Legionnaires' Day parades are strictly private events.
Nonetheless, they have sparked confrontations with anti-Nazi
protesters in past years. This year, with economic misery
running high, police threatening a brief strike on the day of
the event, and foreign anti-Nazi activists promising to come
to town to escalate the confrontation, the risk of
disturbances is higher. While many groups on both sides have
applied for parade or demonstration permits, the City of Riga
has not approved any permits yet.


5. (C) To his credit, Russian Ambassador Veshnyakov has
publicly maintained his calls for ethnic Russians to avoid
confrontations on March 16th, though the Russian Embassy
still highlights the event as an example of Latvian
intolerance. The Latvians, for their part, are concerned
about Russian diplomatic efforts in other capitals to paint
Latvia as an oppressor of its ethnic Russian population, and
about possible Russian government efforts to stir discontent
among ethnic Russians in Latvia.


6. (C) Comment: Many, and perhaps most, Latvians regard the
TB/LNNK advertisement as a desperate attempt at attention
from the smallest member of the government coalition. But
there is clearly a significant audience that is receptive to
the antagonistic message. It is not a surprise that
nationalist parties have attempted to score easy points
during a period of political uncertainty by playing on
deep-seated resentments. Unfortunately, given the level of
economic suffering, they may find a particularly receptive
audience that might not need much encouragement to lash out
at perceived enemies. Post's efforts to encourage a more
integrated and tolerant Latvia will probably be fighting
against a strong current in coming months.
ROGERS