ICELAND: POLITICAL PARTY PRIMARIES MOSTLY REGENERATE THE

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SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL IC
SUBJECT: ICELAND: POLITICAL PARTY PRIMARIES MOSTLY REGENERATE THE
USUAL SUSPECTS

Ref: Reykjavik 053


1. (U) Summary: Iceland's largest round of party primary elections
ahead of the April 25 Althingi elections were held this past
weekend. Public calls for renewal of candidate lists did not produce
the intended results and many incumbent MPs won reelection on their
party lists. Voter turnout at the primaries was far below average,
and could explain the lack of new faces. The primaries confirmed the
arrival of a new generation of leaders on the scene as many in the
old guard have announced their retirement from politics lately. PM
Sigurdardottir won a large victory in the SDA primary in Reykjavik,
which was thought to be enough push for her to declare her candidacy
for the SDA chair, but she has not made any announcements yet. Hopes
that new political movements would spring up appear to be unfounded
as the four largest parties rule the political landscape, but
forecasts for the April 25 vote are unclear as there are still many
undecided voters. End Summary.


2. (U) During the weekend of March 13-15, Iceland's four largest
political parties held most of their primary elections to determine
the lineup of their candidates in the upcoming parliamentary
elections. The parties also released the results of mail-in vote
primaries that took place last week. The results mostly confirmed
the position of incumbent MPs but cleared the road for rising
leaders in the two major parties. In the Southwest Constituency, MP
Arni Pall Arnason (and former Deputy Chairman of the parliamentary
Foreign Affairs Committee),won the first seat on the Social
Democratic Alliance (SDA) ballot. His name has been tossed around as
a potential future party leader. Prime Minister Johanna
Sigurdardottir took the Reykjavik SDA primary by storm, followed by
incumbent MPs and three non-MPs in the top seats. Sigurdardottir was
widely expected to declare her candidacy this week for SDA Chair
after this dominant showing. A new party leadership will be elected
at the SDA national congress to be held on March 26-29.


3. (SBU) Sigurdardottir's imitation of Hamlet has taken on new
significance now that several days have passed since the Reykjavik
primary without an announcement from the PM. An SDA MP posited
before the weekend that Sigurdardottir "just isn't that interested"
in being party chair and would have preferred to retire at the end
of the current Althingi term. A close associate of outgoing party
chair Gisladottir said that Gisladottir's departure had been a major
blow to the PM, not just to the party, and that Sigurdardottir had
little enthusiasm for the challenge without having her close friend
Gisladottir nearby. SDA stalwarts have since pressured
Sigurdardottir very publicly to change her mind; one hundred and
fifty of Sigurdardottir's most fervent supporters are planning a
highly publicized event where they will present her with their
signatures stating their support. This seems to have been somewhat
successful as Sigurdardottir now claims to be thinking about the
possibility of running.


4. (U) A new generation of Independence Party (IP) leaders, MP
Bjarni Benediktsson and MP Illugi Gunnarsson, won the first seats in
the Southwest Constituency and the Reykjavik Constituency,
respectively. Benediktsson is the only candidate for the chair of
the IP after his competition, former MinHealth Gudlaugur Thor
Thordarson, confirmed his intention not to run for chair over the
weekend. Benediktsson has long been rumored to have his eyes on the
chairmanship of the party. He is from a staunch IP family, including
a relative of the same name who was Prime Minister and Minister of
Justice in the 1960s, as well as former Minister of Justice Bjorn
Bjarnason, who will retire from politics this April. Another young
IP politician and possible future leader, MP Ragnheidur Elin
Arnadottir, had a dominant showing in the South Constituency and
leads the IP list there.


5. (SBU) Voter participation in the primaries was much lower than
in 2007, and there was only a 40-50 percent turnout in each district
on average. In some cases this means that the election is not
binding and that boards of constituent councils may change the final
lineup. Protests here through the fall and winter have been
noteworthy in calling for new candidates to declare their candidacy
for the upcoming parliamentary elections. However, even though
there were many more candidates this time compared with 2007, the
results of the primaries proved disappointing to those calling for
changes since many incumbent MPs seem set to continue in office.
Only a few newcomers from this weekend's primaries are likely to
secure a seat in the parliament. Perhaps the most notable of these
is Tryggvi Thor Herbertsson -- an economist and former economic
advisor to PM Geir Haarde -- who won the second seat in the IP's
primary in the Northeast Constituency.


6. (U) The polling agencies are already churning out the
pre-election opinion polls, with the most recent released on March
13 showing the three largest parties all running very close.
According to the Gallup poll, the IP has 28.8 percent support and
the SDA 28.3 percent, well within the poll's margin of error. The
Left-Green Movement has 25.7 percent support. The Progressive Party

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has 12.6 percent, and the Liberal Party 1.6 percent (well below the
five percent threshold needed to earn a seat in the Althingi). The
poll also held bad news for two new political movements, the Union
of Independent Candidates and the Citizens' Movement, whose combined
support was just over two percent. However, the number of undecided
voters remains high at 20 percent. A slightly larger group said
they supported the government now than did in the last Gallup poll,
which was conducted at the end of last month: 58.3 percent now, up
from 57.1 percent in the last poll.


7. (SBU) Comment: Some of Iceland's foremost political commentators
said that the results of this past weekend's primaries signified an
important generational shift, where many new up and coming leaders
have finally been elected into the top ranks of their parties.
However, these commentators seem to be overlooking the fact that
voter turnout was very low compared to recent years. Moderate
advertising brought on by the short campaign and hard financial
times can perhaps explain this, but another convincing reason could
be general voter lethargy and lack of confidence in Icelandic
politics. Recent poll results appear to support this argument since
the number of undecided voters is still quite high, and the leading
parties are all running very close. The primaries also confirmed
that the Independence Party is likely to maintain its trans-Atlantic
outlook -- both Benediktsson and IP Vice Chair Thorgerdur Katrin
Gunnarsdottir, who is largely unopposed in her reelection bid, favor
strong ties with the U.S. To the likely disappointment of some in
the IP, however, they are also both strong proponents of Icelandic
membership in the EU. As for the Prime Minister's SDA, the
weekend's results only increased the pressure on Sigurdardottir to
step forward as the new party chair. Her reluctance to do so is
palpable, but we believe the utter lack of any alternative
leadership within the party will win her over in the end. End
Comment.

VAN VOORST