WESTERN SAHARA: THE DREAM, THE REALITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L RABAT 000859

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR NEA/MAG AND IO/UNP

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/19/2019
TAGS: PBTS PGOV ECON WI MO
SUBJECT: WESTERN SAHARA: THE DREAM, THE REALITY

REF: RABAT 0746

Classified By: Ambassador Samuel L. Kaplan for reasons 1.4(b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: In late September, an interagency embassy
team enjoyed the unique opportunity to travel to both sides
of the "berm," the 1,500-kilometer stone and sand wall that
separates Moroccan-administered Western Sahara from the
POLISARIO-controlled areas. The situation on the ground
underscored that while the GOM-supported autonomy option for
the region is not without problems, it remains the most
viable medium-term solution. Meanwhile, a small minority,s
dreams of independence for Western Sahara appear to be an
unlikely reality. END SUMMARY.


2. (SBU) An embassy team consisting of the Defense Attache,
Army Attache, and Deputy Political Counselor visited the
United Nations Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara
(MINURSO) in Laayoune September 22-25. Warmly welcomed by
MINURSO staff, who see only 12-15 visitors per year, the team
received briefings on MINURSO operations and visited Team
Sites on both sides of the berm. In addition to the Force
Commander, Team Site commanders, political advisors, and
MINURSO staff, the embassy team met with the African Union
Senior Representative to MINURSO and with UNHCR
Confidence-Building Measures (CBM) staff.

--------------
THE VIEW FROM TWO SIDES OF THE BERM
--------------


3. (SBU) Because they were traveling under UN auspices, the
embassy team had the unique opportunity to travel to MINURSO
Team Sites on the eastern side of the berm aboard a UN
helicopter as part of its regularly scheduled route. The
landscapes southeast of the berm -- in the areas ostensibly
controlled by the POLISARIO -- are forbidding and
inhospitable. The birds-eye view revealed the seemingly
endless desolation of the desert in which the only signs of
life were scrub vegetation and the occasional small herd of
goats. Opportunities for viable economic activities appear
sparse, at best. The town of Tifriti, suggested as a
potential tourist attraction and source of revenue in the
region, was barely visible from the low-flying helicopter.
When the team touched down at Team Site Bir Lahlou, there was
noticeable in the distance a small, run-down shack, but no
indication that anyone lived there. Viewed from the air, the
white walls and fences around the Team Sites accentuate the
vast brownness surrounding them.


4. (C) All this offered a sharp contrast to the
Moroccan-administered areas north and west of the berm.
Laayoune, the regional capital, has a population of as many
as 200,000 people, with government offices and commercial
districts. he city is young and has grown rapidly since the
Spanish began developing the area in the 1940s. Most of the
construction is newer, dating from the early 1990s after the
conclusion of the cease-fire and the end of armed conflict
between Moroccan and POLISARIO forces. Some of the older
residential and commercial districts resemble similar areas
in Rabat, Casablanca or other Mediterranean cities, while the
city continues to grow. The region has rich fisheries and
extensive deposits of phosphates, the exploitation of which
may provide some of the capital that drives growth. Most,
however, comes from the Moroccan Government, which has
injected significant development funding and other economic
stimulus into the region. In addition to supporting the
administrative personnel who staff the various government
offices, MINURSO reports that the GOM has an estimated
120-150,000 troops stationed in the Western Sahara along the
berm, which we were told they maintain meticulously.
(COMMENT: Other observers who have visited the berm report
that the state of repair varies enormously and is often
dependent upon the importance that the local Moroccan
commander assigns to maintenance. END COMMENT.)

--------------
MINURSO: JUST THE FACTS (NO OPINIONS)
--------------


5. (C) MINURSO and other UN personnel have a unique role in
the Western Sahara and must carefully walk a very fine -- and
very apolitical -- line. All MINURSO interlocutors were
professional and courteous, engaging in discussion that was,
at times, animated. However, they rarely offered personal
insights or reflections on the mission. On one occasion, one
officer intimated that the POLISARIO may exert "pressure" to
ensure that families from the Tindouf refugee camps in
Algeria who travel west of the berm to visit family members
under the UNHCR-sponsored CMBs actually return to the
camps,but he would not elaborate. (COMMENT: Clearly it
would not be in the POLISARIO,s interests for large numbers
of camp residents to abandon them for a better life in the
Morocco-controlled areas west of the berm. While the embassy
team did not visit the camps around Tindouf, we were told by
many interlocutors, including the UNHCR CBM Program Director,
that living conditions were exceedingly difficult. END
COMMENT.)

--------------
AFRICAN UNION VIEWS
--------------


6. (C) Other international representatives appeared more
free to speak their minds. The African Union Senior
Representative, Ambassador Yilma Tadesse, has served in
Laayoune for 12 years. He discussed at length the history of
the conflict and the various efforts to resolve it, noting
that the AU has, since the beginning, been closely involved
in attempts to broker an agreement. Tadesse reiterated the
AU's position, which is based on the "principled resolution"
that the people should decide. When it was suggested that
the withdrawal of more than 100,000 Moroccan troops from the
region in the event Western Sahara gained independence could
destabilize the region, Ambassador Tadesse disagreed, adding
that other issues, i.e., regional security and stability,
could be dealt with after the status was resolved. He
admitted, however, that they were difficult issues.

--------------
KEEPING IT REAL
--------------


7. (C) COMMENT: The brief visit was limited in scope, but
it added insight into the situation on the ground in Western
Sahara. The harsh environment in the entire area makes life
difficult, but Moroccan investment west of the berm,
especially in Laayoune and Dakhla, has created a sense of
normalcy. Citizens go about their lives as students,
shopkeepers, businessmen, bureaucrats, etc. To our
knowledge, Moroccans and others do not relocate to Laayoune
to seek better lives, and some youth there, like many places,
seek to leave. However, the city has been created by
Morocco, and enough basic infrastructure and commerce with
the rest of Morocco exist to support economic life in the
area. The reality on the other side of the berm simply does
not support the dream, held by some, of an independent,
economically viable Western Saharan state. END COMMENT.


*****************************************
Visit Embassy Rabat's Classified Website;
http://www.intelink.sgov.gov/wiki/Portal:Moro cco
*****************************************

Kaplan