PAM STEAMS AHEAD WHILE PJD SHUT OUT OF UPPER HOUSE

C O N F I D E N T I A L RABAT 000858

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR NEA/MAG AND INR/B

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/19/2019
TAGS: PGOV PINR PHUM KDEM KISL MO
SUBJECT: PAM STEAMS AHEAD WHILE PJD SHUT OUT OF UPPER HOUSE

REF: RABAT 0607

Classified By: Ambassador Samuel L. Kaplan for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: The year-old Party of Authenticity and
Modernity (PAM) continues to engineer significant -- and, to
some, unsettling -- electoral victories following its
impressive showing in June's communal elections. In the
latest of many indirect elections that by law follow the
communal contests, the PAM triumphed in the upper house of
parliament, picking up 22 seats and securing the chamber's
presidency. These victories represent less the PAM's appeal
to voters, and more its ability to horse trade, build
coalitions, and otherwise legally manipulate Morocco's
byzantine indirect electoral process. In addition, the PAM
also flawlessly executed another step in its long-term
strategy of marginalizing the Islamist Party of Justice and
Development (PJD),which gained no new seats and saw its
overall upper house contingent remain at two. The PJD, which
acknowledges the disadvantages it faces in indirect contests,
appears to have taken its losses in stride and still claims
that it will win control of the lower house of Parliament in
2012, -- i.e., during Morocco's next direct election. END
SUMMARY.

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PAM CONTINUES TO ROLL
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2. (U) On October 2, Morocco held indirect elections for 90
of 270 seats in the Chamber of Councilors (CoC),the upper
house of Parliament. As expected, the Party of Authenticity
and Modernity (PAM) proved, for all intents and purposes, the
victor. The PAM picked up 22 of the contested 90 seats,
giving it 20 percent of the chamber's seats. (NOTE: The
upper house's 270 members serve 9-year terms with 1/3 (90) of
the Chamber's members elected every 3 years. Prior to the
October 2 election, 32 of the 180 councilors who were not up
for election this year had converted to the PAM after it was
created last year. END NOTE.) The Istiqlal (Independence)
Party finished second, winning 17 seats, with the Popular
Movement (MP) winning 11, the Socialist Union of Popular
Forces (USFP) taking 10, the Rally of National Independents
(RNI) 9, and labor unions 9. (Other parties won the
remaining seats.)


3. (C) In another triumph for the PAM, following upper house
elections, the new CoC held internal elections for Chairman
of the Chamber in which PAM candidate Mohammed Shiekh
Biadilah (See bio note) defeated incumbent RNI candidate El
Maati Bendakour. This PAM victory surprised Moroccan
political pundits because the RNI still clings to a numerical
majority coalition in the upper house. However, it attests
to PAM operatives' skillful -- and fully legal --
manipulation of the Byzantine rules that govern Morocco's
extensive cycle of indirect elections, which preceded the CoC
elections by two weeks -- in order to secure votes in the CoC
for Biadilah. (COMMENT: These coalitions are indeed
temporary. PAM's newly-elected Deputy Chairman of the Rabat
Regional Council told PolCouns his party gave the
Chairmanship -- he said he would have won -- to Istiqlal as
part of a deal to help secure votes for Biadilah in the CoC.
However, he gleefully added, "The chairman is incompetent,
and his mistakes will only make the PAM look good." END
COMMENT.)

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PJD SHUT OUT
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4. (SBU) If PAM was the big winner, the Islamist PJD was the
big loser -- exactly as PAM had sought. It won no new seats
during the Oct. 2 contests, and saw its overall contingent in
the CoC remain at 2 seats, which it won only through its
association with certain labor unions, rather than through
its party apparatus. Since its re-incarnation from a
"pro-democracy NGO" to a political party a year ago, the PAM
has camoflauged many of its agendas, but one has always been
openly stated: to shut the PJD out of government on all
levels. In June, PAM used backroom negotiations with other
parties and pressure tactics to weaken the PJD's showing
(reftel) in the communal elections, which are crucial because
the winners in those elections not only go on to become city
counselors but also the "super-electors" in the numerous
indirect elections that follow. The PAM has since continued
its strategy of marginalizing the PJD through the same horse
trading and deal-making that brought it success in the CoC
contests.


5. (SBU) To a certain extent, the PJD has played right into
the PAM's hands by openly refusing to engage in backroom
party politics, which it believes would taint its image as
the only Moroccan party truly committed to transparency and
to eliminating corruption. For example, in downplaying his
party's losses, Kenitra mayor and PJD parliamentarian
Abdelaziz Rabbah stated that the PJD will never accept
involvement in "untransparent" negotiations at which the PAM
has proven so adept. Numerous PJD representatives have
refrained from reacting negatively to the defeats they have
suffered since June, arguing that their true strength lies in
direct elections and that they will prove this with an
impressive showing in the 2012 elections for the lower house
of Parliament, i.e., Morocco's next direct contests.

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A PATTERN HAS EMERGED
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6. (U) In the September contests for seats in the 16
Regional Councils, the PAM won 212 of the 1,220 seats (17.3
percent),followed by Istiqlal (154 seats) (12.6 percent),
the RNI (123 seats) (10 percent),the USFP (89 seats) (7.3
percent),the Constitutional Union (65 seats) (5.3 percent),
the MP (62 seats) (5.1 percent),and the PJD (28 seats) (2.3
percent). Other parties won less than 20 seats or less than
1.6 percent each. The provincial elections in August had
seen a similar pattern, with Istiqlal coming just ahead of
the PAM with 14.35 percent of the seats. The PAM won 13.89
percent, the RNI 10.7 percent, the USFP 8.8, the MP 6.6, and
the UC 5 percent. Interestingly, 25.2 percent of the victors
in these latter contests were independents.

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COMMENT
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7. (C) These results track very closely with the results of
the municipal elections. The PJD's relatively sanguine
response both to the PAM's aggressive emergence and to its
poor showing in recent indirect elections is in large part
genuine. The Chamber of Councilors does not have the same
degree of impact on legislation as the lower house; it does
not reflect the true influence or popularity of individual
political parties in Moroccan society; and its elections
involve the inter-party politicking to which the PJD is
genuinely opposed. The PJD is indeed focused on positioning
itself for a good showing in the more significant lower house
elections in 2012, and there is no doubt that its appeal in
direct elections -- especially in the urban areas -- is
something the PAM and its fellow travelers (temporary or
long-term) will have a harder time manipulating.
Nevertheless, if current trends are any indication, all
political parties -- not just the PJD -- face an enormous
challenge in the form of fast-rising, very hard hitting PAM.
The positive results for the PAM in the CoC testify to an
ability to horse trade and manipulate Morocco's enormously
complicated electoral rules to its advantage ("to cheat by
the rules," as one member of another party put it) that no
other party can hope to match. These skills, coupled with
the increasingly unambiguous reality that PAM is the Palace
favorite (septel),raises the possibility of PAM eventually
emerging as a single political giant with no true rival. END
COMMENT.

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BIO NOTE
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8. (U) Biadilah is now the fourth highest-ranking official
from the King in Morocco. He is the first Saharawi to have
risen to such a high level in Moroccan politics. He began
his political career as a deputy in the lower house in 1977,
later becoming Minister of Health from 2002-2007. In
February 2009, he became the Secretary General of the PAM.
END BIO NOTE.


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Kaplan