Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09RABAT634
2009-07-22 12:11:00
SECRET
Embassy Rabat
Cable title:  

MAURITANIAN INDEPENDENT COMMENTS ON MAURITANIA

Tags:  PHUM PGOV KDEM MR MO 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXYZ0000
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHRB #0634/01 2031211
ZNY SSSSS ZZH
O 221211Z JUL 09
FM AMEMBASSY RABAT
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0483
INFO RUEHNK/AMEMBASSY NOUAKCHOTT IMMEDIATE 3835
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS IMMEDIATE 5174
RUCNMGH/MAGHREB COLLECTIVE
S E C R E T RABAT 000634 

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/W AND NEA/MAG

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/22/2019
TAGS: PHUM PGOV KDEM MR MO
SUBJECT: MAURITANIAN INDEPENDENT COMMENTS ON MAURITANIA
ELECTION

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires, a.i., Robert P. Jackson for reasons 1
.4 (b) and (d).

S E C R E T RABAT 000634

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/W AND NEA/MAG

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/22/2019
TAGS: PHUM PGOV KDEM MR MO
SUBJECT: MAURITANIAN INDEPENDENT COMMENTS ON MAURITANIA
ELECTION

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires, a.i., Robert P. Jackson for reasons 1
.4 (b) and (d).


1. (S) Summary: Ahmed Said Ould Bah, a Mauritanian expert
who serves as Chief of Staff of Islamic Organization for
Education, Science, and Culture (ISESCO),told us on July 20
he believed the Mauritanian opposition was genuinely
surprised by Mohammed Ould Abdel Aziz's victory in the recent
presidential election in Mauritania, but that the election
results were accurate. Ould Bah, a well connected
Mauritanian national, suggested that fears for security and
stability motivated France to play a significant role in
Aziz's victory, just as Paris, like Rabat, had pre-cleared
last year's Aziz-led coup. He applauded the United States'
principled stand against the coup in Mauritania and its lack
of interference in the recent elections. According to Ould
Bah, Aziz is being viewed as transitional figure to steward
Mauritania from military to civilian rule. End Summary.

--------------
Election Results
--------------


2. (S) In side comments with PolCouns and D/PolCouns, during
a meeting focused on launching USG cooperation with ISESCO on
July 20, Islamic Organization for Education, Science and
Culture (ISESCO) Chief of Staff Ahmed Said Ould Bah shared
his views about the recent presidential election in
Mauritania. Ould Bah, a well-connected Mauritanian national,
said that despite protests by opposition parties, Mohammed
Ould Abdel Aziz,s apparent victory in the election, in which
he captured 52 percent of the vote, would likely be accepted
by the population, despite protests from anti-Aziz factions.
He said that approximately two thirds of registered voters
turned out to vote.


3. (S) Ould Bah said that anti-Aziz elements were surprised
by the election results. He said that anti-Aziz factions
generally underestimated the degree of support Aziz was able
to garner among the poor and the young: two crucial groups
in the election. Aziz was also seen as a candidate of
change, and opposition attempts to paint him as corrupt
backfired. Ould Bah said that the lack of any polling in
Mauritania made it difficult to gauge trends and manage

expectations in campaigns. He considered the complete
absence of professional, objective and scientific polling
entities in the country to be a significant shortcoming of
the democratic infrastructure in Mauritania. Ould Bah added
that General Vall, a candidate considered to have a generally
positive and counter-corruption image, was shocked to have
received only three percent of the vote and likely regretted
running in the first place.

--------------
France Pulling Strings
--------------


4. (S) Ould Bah claimed that France played a significant
role in influencing the election result from behind the
scenes. He said that France, which had favored Aziz's
candidacy, had opposed Ould Daddah and took active measures
to enhance Aziz's electoral chances. The French were
motivated by concerns about security and stability,
particularly the al Qa'eda in the Lands of the Islamic
Maghreb (AQIM) threat. Ould Bah mentioned that France and
Morocco had known about the coup, which had brought Aziz to
power in 2008, and they had both given Aziz a "green light"
for him to execute it. In addition to assisting with the
Dakar negotiations, which facilitated the elections, France
was able to extract several concessions from Aziz at Dakar,
which while ceding posts in the transition, ultimately helped
facilitate his election, according to Ould Bah. These
included Aziz,s resignation as interim head of state, Aziz's
willingness to allow top slots in the Ministries of Interior,
Defense, and Communications to be filled with opposition
figures, and his willingness to accept a delay of the
elections. All these concessions increased his reputation
for flexibility and pragmatism, and won him votes.


5. (S) Behind the scenes, the French made significant
promises of lucrative French commercial business contracts to
Moussaid Behair, a Mauritanian businessman and key financial
backer of Aziz's campaign. These assurances of huge business
deals and promises to Behair that "he would get everything
back," induced Behair to give more generously to Aziz's
campaign than he otherwise would have. Because Aziz's
campaign discourse included counter-corruption rhetoric,
Aziz's connection to these machinations was naturally hidden

from the public eye. Ould Bah added, "Aziz traveled to
France prior to the elections and negotiated with all the
right people."

-------------- --------------
America's Principled Anti-Coup Stance Appreciated
-------------- --------------


6. (S) Ould Bah said that the United States' principled
decision to stand against the coup in Mauritania was
appreciated by parties opposed to Aziz. He added that U.S.,
unwillingness to grant concessions to Aziz, insistence on
democracy, and non-interference with the election results was
also appreciated. Ould Bah said that many Mauritanians see
Aziz as a transitional leader, leading the country from
military to civilian rule.


7. (S) Comment: Ould Bah, with a PhD from France and MPhil
from London's School of Oriental and African Studies, is an
articulate interlocutor who is very favorably disposed to the
U.S.. However, we know nothing about his ties in Mauritania
and potential prejudices therefrom. He had no expectation of
the subject being raised, and his perspective appeared
balanced. Nonetheless, we can only transmit his comments.
Ould Bah's assessment reinforces our previous calculations
that Morocco at least knew about the Aziz-led coup in
advance. We believe that the Government of Morocco (GOM),
like that of France, is pleased with the election results in
Mauritania. The GOM will likely soon appeal to the U.S. to
resume normal relations with Mauritania, citing the soundness
of the elections and framing Aziz as a transition figure to a
better democracy for Mauritania in the future. The Moroccans
likely hope that such normalization would itself help promote
a renewal of our engagement with the Arab Maghreb Union. End
Comment.


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Visit Embassy Rabat's Classified Website;
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*****************************************

Jackson