Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09RABAT497
2009-06-12 12:37:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Rabat
Cable title:  

PRE-ELECTION MANEUVERS OF PAM AND PM HIGHLIGHT THE

Tags:  PGOV PINR KDEM MO 
pdf how-to read a cable
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PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHRB #0497/01 1631237
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 121237Z JUN 09
FM AMEMBASSY RABAT
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0261
INFO RUCNMGH/MAGHREB COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHMFISS/HQ USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L RABAT 000497 

SIPDIS

STATE FOR NEA/MAG AND DRL/NESCA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/11/2029
TAGS: PGOV PINR KDEM MO
SUBJECT: PRE-ELECTION MANEUVERS OF PAM AND PM HIGHLIGHT THE
RIVALRIES AND CONVOLUTIONS OF MOROCCAN POLITICS

Classified By: CDA Robert P. Jackson for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L RABAT 000497

SIPDIS

STATE FOR NEA/MAG AND DRL/NESCA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/11/2029
TAGS: PGOV PINR KDEM MO
SUBJECT: PRE-ELECTION MANEUVERS OF PAM AND PM HIGHLIGHT THE
RIVALRIES AND CONVOLUTIONS OF MOROCCAN POLITICS

Classified By: CDA Robert P. Jackson for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (SBU) Summary: The kickoff of the campaign for local
elections in Morocco on May 29 was enlivened when the Party
of Authenticity and Modernity (PAM) announced that it was
withdrawing support from Prime Minister (PM) Abbas El Fassi's
government, threatening a parliamentary crisis. The PAM,
which was founded by King Mohammed VI confidant Fouad Ali El
Himma, has kept the El Fassi government in power since the
2007 elections, although it did not join the government.
Within hours, the King made a phone call of support to El
Fassi, which the PM publicized, calming concerns of a
possible government fall. While weakening the government,
the withdrawal has had no immediate practical effect, with
the sole PAM minister (a technocrat) remaining in government
until the PAM suspended him on June 11. Most observers agree
El Himma was trying to position the PAM as an outsider,
running against the government in the elections. Observers
are uncertain about whether these new disputes reflect
escalating competition or are part of an elaborate charade,
pre-cleared with the King.


2. (SBU) Embassy conversations and field visits suggest that
participation in the election will likely be low. Most
projections suggest the government will largely be left
intact, with gains made by PAM, in its first major election,
and modest gains by the Party of Justice and Development
(PJD) in the cities. Although criticized for being out of
touch with voters, the PAM has registered the largest number
of candidates and is poised to finish among the top four
parties in Morocco. Should it pull off a substantial
victory, it could mean the expected post election cabinet
reshuffle might include new parties in the ruling national
coalition. End Summary.

-------------- --
PAM Successfully Defends its Candidate Poaching
-------------- --


3. (SBU) PAM's ostensible reason for withdrawing its support
for the government was to protest Ministry of Interior (MOI)
efforts, with Prime Minister Abbas El-Fassi's support, to
disallow the candidacies of PAM members under article 5 of

the political party law. This law prevents parliamentarians
who change their party affiliation during an elected term
from running in local elections. Rather than debate
policies, PAM electoral efforts, and those of all other
parties, appear focused on recruiting the wealthiest and most
well connected candidates, even if this means poaching them
from other parties. Although newly born in 2008, the PAM has
registered the largest number of candidates (over 16,000) for
the local elections.


4. (SBU) The PAM accused the government of deliberately
targeting its candidates. (Note: We have heard that the
highest number of party jumpers to PAM were Istiqlal
candidates. End Note.) Some Embassy contacts also suggested
that MOI's attempted use of article 5 may also have been a
reprisal against the PAM, which had recently criticized the
MOI and other parts of the government as part of a campaign
strategy to position the PAM as a political "outsider."
Socialist Forces Party (USFP) candidate Maghnaoui told POL
LES that "many voters do not differentiate between local and
legislative elections; so the PAM is using the entire
(article 5) episode as a means to distance itself from the
government and demonstrate to voters that it is providing an
alternative." Nonetheless, the courts subsequently
invalidated the rejection of PAM member candidacies, so it
does not appear that anyone was prevented from running.

--------------
Government Stabilized with King's Support ...
--------------


5. (SBU) Official press reported on May 30 that King
Mohammed VI called the PM the very next day to reiterate
trust in him and the government "to pursue and intensify
their efforts aimed at carrying out the reforms and
large-scale projects, and serving the higher interests of the
nation and citizens." The King's renewed trust will
temporarily comfort the government and allow it to work in
good conditions during the election period.


6. (SBU) Even though the government lacks a majority, the
PAM's withdrawal of support for the government does not mean
that El Fassi's cabinet will fall. For this to happen, the
PAM would need to assemble enough parliamentarians to
actively vote it down. RNI Secretary of State for Craft
Industry Anis Birou explained that Parliament is at an even

split with 160 members of parliament (MPs) in the government
coalition and 160 in the non-allied opposition and 3
independents. According to an Istiqlal party (PI) political
bureau member, after the elections, PM El Fassi will start
talks in the next few weeks with other political parties to
form a new majority.

--------------
... but Weakened
--------------


7. (SBU) Although El-Fassi's government appears to have
avoided its first real crisis since its creation in 2007, the
PAM's move has certainly weakened the ruling coalition. On
June 1, President of the Chamber of Deputies President
Mustapha Mansouri, the leader of the more powerful lower
house of parliament, who is also Chairman of governing
coalition party Rally of National Independents (RNI),
announced that RNI was ending the parliamentary alliance with
the PAM that began in September 2008 after the PAM chose to
withdraw support from the government. Their joint
parliamentary group had been the Chamber's largest. The RNI
had already refused a PAM request to oppose article 5.
President of the Upper Chamber of Parliament and RNI member
Maati Benkaddour said that RNIs choice to create a
parliamentary alliance with the PAM had been purely tactical
in order to stop a possible hemorrhage of their weakest
members to the PAM for personal gains as so many other
parties, members have done.


8. (SBU) Speculation about a possible future coalition
shakeup has also been fueled by indications that USFP may
withdraw from the national government coalition if it does
not do well in these elections. During this campaign, the
USFP has been pushing a provocative call for constitutional
reform, out of step with other government parties, and is
acting like a party already in opposition. Several of our
parliamentarian contacts believe that the USFP, which took a
beating in the 2007 legislative elections, may be looking to
rebuild itself in opposition if it makes a poor showing.
However, these potential shifts will not necessarily dislodge
Istiqlal and may only oblige the PM to secure new alliances
in order to re-craft a new governing coalition and remain in
power.

--------------
Disinterest in Elections across the Board
--------------


9. (SBU) According to multiple embassy contacts, voters in
general seemed uninterested in the elections, where a
candidate's personal popularity is more important than any
political platform. PolOff found voters in the North and the
Rif particularly disinterested. In Tetouan, PolOff heard
politicians do not listen to voters and will likely show
their frustration through a low voter turnout (between 15 and
20 percent). Candidates running on the PAM and PJD tickets
were a bit more optimistic suggesting a higher participation
rate (between 30-40 percent). In Tangier and elsewhere in
the north, various other observers projected a voter
participation rate anywhere between 30 and 50 percent. We
believe that the voter participation for this election will
be below the last communal election turnout of 54 percent )-
making it difficult to avoid the conclusion that Moroccan
voters are increasingly questioning the efficacy of elected
officials in Morocco in general.

--------------
Forecasts from NDI and IRI
--------------


10. (C) In a June 9 meeting, National Democratic Institute
(NDI) Country Director Jeff England told PolOff that his
staff believed that the PAM and the Berber-reverent Popular
Movement Party (MP) will be the big winners on Friday.
England predicted that PJD and Istiqlal will perform
&average,8 with the USFP and the tiny Socialism and
Progress Party (PPS) making the poorest showings. England
believes that the election participation rate will be between
37 and 50 percent, with a stronger showing in southern
Morocco than in the northern regions.


11. (C) International Republican Institute (IRI) Country
Director Jamie Tronnes opined on June 9 to PolOff that
although the PAM has registered the most candidates
throughout Morocco, they are focusing most of their efforts
in the south and do not appear to have much ground support.
On the other hand, Tronnes said that PJD is running a
disciplined campaign in targeted regions, indicating more

experience and knowledge about campaign management. She
predicted that the RNI would be a big winner in the North,
especially in Taounate. Although PPS seems to have a large
focus on youth, Tronnes suggested that neither it nor the
tiny Constitutional Union party (UC) would be serious players
in this election. Tronnes added that she felt the
participation rate would be over 40 percent.

--------------
Important Race in Western Sahara
--------------


12. (C) A key race to watch is in the Western Sahara, where
the election is administered as in Morocco. When the MOI
appointed a new Wali in Laayone who had a long affiliation
with El Himma, many wondered whether this presaged some kind
of challenge to Kalihenna Ould Er Rachid, the controversial
head of the Advisory Council for Sahrawi Affairs (CORCAS).
Speculation intensified when El Himma arranged for a Sahrawi,
Mohammed Sheikh Biadillah, to become formal leader and
Secretary General of the PAM. However, the Er Rachid
political machine is deeply entrenched because of its
longtime control of a good part of the GOM resources and
privileges in the territory. The PAM acquired a long list of
candidates and is campaigning hard, but as of halfway through
the campaign, local observers in and out of the
administration expect the Er Rachid to hold on, keeping safe
the dozen or so parliamentary seats that put the PM's
Istiqlal part in position to lead the Moroccan government.


13. (SBU) Another interesting contest will take place in
Fes, where Istiqlal strongman Mayor Hamid Chabat faces a
long-standing challenge from the PJD and a rising pressure
from the PAM. Rallies and even recent clashes leave the
impression that competition in Fes will be intense with all
doing well compared to smaller parties, but unclear as to
which will emerge as the biggest winner.


14. (SBU) Comment: Most potential voters continue to profess
indifference and general dissatisfaction with the political
parties and their elected representatives, at any level, and
a majority will likely continue to stay home. We also expect
a continuation of the substantial protest ballot phenomenon
of the 2007 parliamentary election. Despite these defects,
many see the results of this election as a harbinger of
legislative elections in 2012. The newness of PAM and the
potential impact of increased women candidates introduce new
elements of unpredictability into the election outcome.
However, based on our read of the political field, we expect
the PAM to make substantial inroads at the local level in
this, its first major, nationwide election, finishing among
the top four parties. We also expect the PJD to finish with
modest gains, RNI with minor loses, and USFP with loses. How
much of these local results make affect a shake-up at the
national level remains to be seen but will likely depend on
the strength of PAM's gains. Istaqlal is likely to finish
well locally and remain the ruling coalition leader
nationally even if we see changes in coalition members. End
Comment.


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Jackson