Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09RABAT487
2009-06-10 15:42:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Rabat
Cable title:  

LOCAL ELECTIONS IN MOROCCO: LOCAL DECISIONS, BUT A

Tags:  PHUM PGOV PINR PROP KDEM MO 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXYZ0000
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHRB #0487/01 1611542
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 101542Z JUN 09
FM AMEMBASSY RABAT
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0249
INFO RUEHCL/AMCONSUL CASABLANCA PRIORITY 4628
C O N F I D E N T I A L RABAT 000487 

SIPDIS

STATE FOR INR/NESA, NEA/MAG AND DRL/NESCA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/10/2014
TAGS: PHUM PGOV PINR PROP KDEM MO
SUBJECT: LOCAL ELECTIONS IN MOROCCO: LOCAL DECISIONS, BUT A

REFERENDUM ON NATIONAL POLITICS (C-NE9-00557)

REF: A. STATE 026706

B. RABAT 0485

C. RABAT 0473

Classified By: CDA Robert P. Jackson for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L RABAT 000487

SIPDIS

STATE FOR INR/NESA, NEA/MAG AND DRL/NESCA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/10/2014
TAGS: PHUM PGOV PINR PROP KDEM MO
SUBJECT: LOCAL ELECTIONS IN MOROCCO: LOCAL DECISIONS, BUT A

REFERENDUM ON NATIONAL POLITICS (C-NE9-00557)

REF: A. STATE 026706

B. RABAT 0485

C. RABAT 0473

Classified By: CDA Robert P. Jackson for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (U) Summary: The campaign for June 12th local council
elections kicked off June 30, following the closure of
candidate lists the day before. Despite the limited and
limiting window for campaigning, it still took a few days to
get the campaign off the ground. There have been lively
rallies in major cities, flyers all over and door-to-door
campaigning.


2. (C) These are elections of proximity for almost 30,000
seats in more than 1,500 town and rural communal councils.
The victors will also elect among themselves, council
presidents, who function as mayors, provincial and regional
councils, and one-third of the members of the upper house of
Parliament. Corruption, opaque governance, unresponsive
political parties, and local decision-making dominated by the
Palace and its central administration have left many voters
disaffected. Turnout in recent elections has been dropping
and will be a key indicator as will the number of protest
votes.


3. (SBU) We expect the election to be transparent. Local
contests frequently will be decided on the basis of the
popularity of individual candidates, not necessarily on the
political party. One key factor, however, will be the
performance of the Palace-favored Party of Authenticity and
Modernity (PAM),which already pulled off a major feat by
registering over 16,000 candidates, the most of any party.
Its performance will be measured against the Prime Minister's
Istiqlal (Independence) party, which registered the second
most candidates and the pro-Islamic Party of Justice and
Development (PJD),third in candidates, and up to 30 other
parties. A clear result could mean a change in the ruling
coalition or affect an expected cabinet reshuffle. This
cable responds to questions posed in Ref A (C-NE9-00557).
End Summary.

--------------
Communal Elections: "All Politics Are Local"

--------------


4. (U) According to the Government of Morocco (GOM),130,223
candidates, including over 20,000 women, will compete for
27,795 seats on 1,503 local councils in elections being held
across Morocco and in Western Sahara (under Moroccan
administration) on June 12. The commune is the smallest
political entity within the Moroccan political system
(equivalent to a town or borough). Elections at this level
determine leaders responsible for local services, such as
water, electricity, sanitation, public transportation, and
economic development. Mechanically, most communal-level
politicians are drawn from party lists. Individuals vote for
political parties, not candidates, and then, depending on the
proportion of votes, the political parties draw from their
party lists to fill their apportioned communal seats.
However, a minority of seats is filled by direct election of
candidates, i.e., you know exactly for whom you are voting.
These are called uninominal districts. Communal council
members serve six-year terms.

--------------
Cascading Election Process
--------------


5. (C) Communal elections have an added importance, often
lost on most voters, in that they serve as the first step in
chain of indirect elections that fill successively higher
regional seats of government all the way up to one third of
the seats in the parliament's upper house, the Chamber of
Counselors. Candidates that win seats on communal councils,
in turn, act as the voters for all of the other higher
follow-on indirect elections. The communal council members
first elect communal council presidents, a district president
(responsible for a U.S.-equivalent sub-country-size entity).
Next, communal council members elect provincial council
presidents (responsible for one of 45 roughly U.S.
county-size equivalents),followed by the selection of
regional council presidents (responsible for the equivalent
of 16 roughly U.S. state-size entities). This cascade of
indirect elections ends with the selection of Chamber of
Counselors members. All of these indirect elections will
take place successively, and largely out of the public eye,
between June and November 2009. (Comment: This indirect
election process is publicly recognized as an opaque and
frequently corrupt process, and contributes to some of the

widely held voter disaffection. End Comment.)

-------------- --------------
A Turnout Litmus Test -- Shaped by All the King's Men
-------------- --------------


6. (C) Apart from the selection of local bureaucrats, the
communal elections are viewed by many in the Moroccan public,
media, and political structure as a litmus test for the
health of Morocco's evolving democratic system. Plagued by
corruption and vote buying since their inception in 1960,
Moroccan elections have recently suffered low and declining
levels of participation. The 2007 legislative elections
witnessed an ignominious 37 percent level of participation,
accompanied by high rates of vote spoiling. The last
communal elections in 2003 registered a 54 percent voter
participation rate, down from 75 percent in the same contests
in 1997. (Note: Communal elections tend to attract higher
rates of participation than legislative elections because
they are perceived to have direct/local consequences for
voters. End Note.) We believe that any improvement over the
last communal elections in terms of voter participation,
i.e., over 54 percent, will be seen as a success; between 53
and 40 percent a disappointment; and below 40 percent as a
sign of a continuation of a downward trend in the lack of
confidence in the political establishment.


7. (SBU) Ministry of Interior (MOI) efforts to thwart
another low-voter turnout appear to reflect Government, and
perhaps Palace, concern. In January and February 2009, the
MOI scrubbed voter registration lists, adding 1.64 million
voters but removing over 3.63 million voters who had moved,
died, or were otherwise found to be unverifiable, to decrease
the denominator of the voter percentage participation
calculation to approximately 13.3 million voters. (Note:
The population of Morocco is approximately 34 million. End
Note.) Embassy Officers also noted earlier than normal
commencement of the government's "get out the vote" media
blitz in April, consisting of an MOI website, TV, and radio
spots. In a separate media campaign launched in January, MOI
officials urged political parties to prepare and voters to
elect competent communal officials in preparation for future
implementation of the government's decentralization plan
called for by King Mohammed VI.


8. (SBU) More menacingly, the MOI in mid-January shut down
six websites of the al-Adl Wal Ihsan (AWI) or the Justice and
Good Works Organization -- an unregistered Islamist political
association estimated to have over one million adherents in
Morocco -- for several months. Embassy officers heard from
numerous political contacts, and the press speculated, that
the shut down was partly motivated by AWI calls on its
websites for Moroccans not to participate in the communal
elections. The Palace may also have decided to support
designated seats for women -- for which the USG had pushed
(Refs B and C) -- in the local elections as a means to
increase interest and boost turnout.


9. (SBU) Apart from the widespread perception of corruption
in politics and a disaffection with political parties, which
are still perceived as opaque, self-absorbed, and
unresponsive to voters, public awareness that elected
officials lack real power compared to Palace and
MOI-appointed officials also drags down voter participation.
Morocco's government, at the regional level and below,
functions within a bifurcated system with two separate, but
mutually engaged, hierarchical chains-of-authority: one
elected through the cascade system, described above, and the
other appointed by the Palace and/or MOI. Officials within
the MOI structure consist of Palace-appointed Walis (heads of
regions); Governors (heads of provinces/prefectures); and
MOI-appointed Pashas-or of lesser stature Caids ) (heads of
districts); and Caids (heads of communes). While the elected
chain is responsible for civil and regulatory functions, the
royal/MOI chain is more powerful because it maintains budget
and security authority at every level of government -* &So
why vote?,8 runs the logic of many voters.

--------------
Transparency
--------------


10. (U) The Consultative Council on Human Rights (CCDH) has
been put in charge of electoral observation, building on its
success in the observation of the 2007 parliamentary
elections. It invited domestic observers and has certified
approximately 300 observers from 70 civil society
organizations, in addition to 20 CCDH-fielded observers.
Each observer is expected to cover about five polling
stations in regions across the country. (Note: This will be

only a small sample. They will use 38,248 voting stations
for this election, and approximately 2,800 observed the 2007
legislative election. End Note.) Local elections tend to
attract less observation support than legislative elections,
according to CCDH.


11. (SBU) The USG, through the National Democratic
Institute, in cooperation with the GOM, has trained numerous
poll watchers from political parties for this election, and
they will be the first line and most effective form of
monitoring and control. The Embassy plans to field 14 roving
observer teams on June 12 to gauge atmospherics and watch for
any signs of voting irregularities. (Comment: With pressure
to increase voter participation, and a history of vote
buying, we hope that transparency gains made in the September
2007 legislative elections can be at least be maintained.
End Comment.)


12. (SBU) According to Moroccan law, the 32-odd registered
political parties in Morocco can only campaign for two weeks
prior to the election. The GOM provides official funds to
each registered party for campaigning during this period.
The GOM provides 150 million dirhams (approximately USD 18.3
million) for each party and, for the first time in this
election, an additional 10 million dirhams (approximately USD
1.2 million) per party to fund women's campaigns.

--------------
Party Politics: PAM Emerging
--------------


13. (SBU) While the introduction of more women into politics
is a new and welcome event, most of our political contacts
believe that it will not significantly alter the political
landscape in terms of party politics. Our contacts in the
International Republican Institute and National Democratic
Institute are telling us that Islamist-inspired Party of
Justice and Development (PJD) and the newly emergent Party of
Modernity and Authenticity (PAM) will likely reap more of a
"female bounce" than other parties, but this factor will not
tip the scales significantly as all parties will pick up
female representation.


14. (SBU) The biggest potential change in Morocco's
political field could come potentially from the PAM. The PAM
was founded by Fouad Ali El Himma, an intimate of the King,
and after just over a year, leads the biggest political bloc
in Parliament. More than a month before the start of the
campaign, PAM leaders criss-crossed the country on
"informational tours," while other parties largely stayed
home, deterred by strict laws against early campaigning. At
the local level, PAM is outpacing its rivals with the speed
in which its party caravans traverse the country and in its
apparent ability to recruit the most wealthy, influential, or
connected independent candidates (or those from other
parties). While all parties appear to be engaged in this
strategic "head hunting" exercise, largely supplanting the
need for parties to articulate discernible platforms, PAM
seems to be doing it the best. It managed the extraordinary
feat of registering 16,793 candidates, the largest of any
party, followed by Prime Minister El Fassi's Istiqlal party
with some 15,681 candidates and the Islamic-referent PJD,
with 8,870 candidates. The PJD has said it would run in only
40 percent of districts, due to its limited presence in rural
areas. Approximately 56 percent of candidates have at least
high school diplomas, which represents an improvement over
previous elections. Areas of key contests include the
Western Sahara, where the PAM is challenging the formidable
Istiqlal party political machine led by the Er Rachid Family,
and Fes, where the battle is between Istiqlal, with its
populist mayor Hamid Chabat, and the PJD.


15. (SBU) Comment: The upcoming communal elections in
Morocco will send a strong signal nationally and
internationally on whether Moroccans, in general, still
attach importance to political life after the previous low
turnouts registered in the 2002 and 2007 legislative and the
2003 communal elections. Low turnout will reflect a
widespread absence of trust and confidence in the elected
structure and political parties, but not necessarily the
monarchy. It will also reflect badly on the Prime Minister.
However, high turnout will be judged by which party does
well, and could benefit the newly formed PAM and give a boost
to de facto head El Himma for shaking up "politics as usual"
in Morocco. End Comment.


*****************************************
Visit Embassy Rabat's Classified Website;
http://www.intelink.sgov.gov/wiki/Portal:Moro cco

*****************************************

Jackson