SCENE SETTER FOR FPOTUS CARTER

UNCLAS RABAT 000409

SIPDIS
SENSITIVE

STATE FOR NEA/MAG
PLS PASS TO FORMER PPRESIDENT CARTER

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV ECON PREL PHUM MO
SUBJECT: SCENE SETTER FOR FPOTUS CARTER


1. (SBU) Summary: Former President Carter, my
staff and I warmly welcome you and the delegation of
The Elders to Morocco. The Kingdom of Morocco is a
country "on the move," in the throes, albeit
unevenly, of change and reform. Economic growth
will continue to approach six percent per year
despite the global financial crisis. A bumper crop
will offset drops in investment, tourism and
remittances, which have boomed in recent years and
have become important sources of income. Slums are
coming down, and according to official statistics,
so is unemployment. Freedom of the press is greater
than seen here ever before and than in the rest of
the region, but those who cross redlines can still
face jail. Other human rights have grown as well,
although Morocco remains very much under the control
of a monarchy and a system with roots going back
hundreds of years. Neither the Parliament nor the
33 political parties with seats in it have much
power. Most voters stayed away from the last
parliamentary election in 2007 which saw the first
international observation ever, funded by the USG.
Some 35,000 local council seats are up for grabs in
elections on June 12. Morocco recently allocated to
women some 3,000 of those seats (12 percent, up from
0.5 percent or 130 seats at present),and the USG
has funded campaign training for over 3,500 women
candidates in the last 90 days. Morocco's top
priority in foreign relations is U.S. and other
countries is broader international support for its
position on the Western Sahara territorial dispute
and for North African integration. End Summary.


2. (SBU) We understand that you will meet during
your stay here with Andre Azoulay, a close mission
contact and highly respected Counselor to King
Mohammed VI. As the most prominent Jewish Moroccan
and a moderate voice on the Middle East, he promotes
Moroccan religious tolerance through a variety of
ways, including the arts. Morocco is protective of
the tiny remnant of its once substantial Jewish
minority. The late King Hassan II helped promote
Middle East peace by welcoming then Prime Minister
Shimon Peres for an official visit in 1986, and
Morocco can have a similar, peripherally supportive
role in the future. King Mohammed VI chairs the
Organization of the Islamic Conference's (OIC's)
Jerusalem Committee and has lobbied hard against any
efforts to change the historically Islamic and Arab
characteristics of the city, including residence
demolitions.

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Economics, Trade and Assistance
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3. (SBU) The economy is relatively healthy,
although marred by disparities in wealth. Growth is
expected to be above five percent this year, despite
the global economic slowdown, thanks to anticipated
bumper harvests. Moroccan authorities are
concerned, however, about the risk of more serious
impacts on important export, tourism, and remittance
earnings if the global recession continues. Since
implementation of the U.S.-Morocco Free Trade
Agreement (FTA) on January 1, 2006, bilateral
commerce has more than doubled. U.S. firms have
increased their investment in Morocco, seeing new
markets develop as a result of the FTA.


4. (SBU) We are focusing our bilateral assistance
to Morocco on youth and women, targeting four
priorities: economic growth, counterterrorism,
democracy and governance, and supporting quality
education. U.S. assistance includes projects under
the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC),USAID,
Peace Corps, and the Middle East Partnership
Initiative (MEPI). Building on decades of USAID and
Peace Corps efforts, the MCC signed a five-year, USD
697.5 million Millennium Challenge Account Compact
with Morocco in 2007 to reduce poverty and increase
economic growth. The MCC will support five major
projects selected for their potential to increase
productivity and improve employment in high
potential sectors of Morocco's economy: Fruit Tree
Productivity, Small Scale Fisheries, Crafts,
Financial Services, and Enterprise Support.

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Internal Issues
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5. (SBU) Governance Reform: Morocco's political
parties and the bicameral parliament are weak. The
Parliament provides no effective check on the
monarchy or government. Constitutional change may
someday lead to increased democracy, but both
Parliament and parties will have to improve their
capacity and performance. Although the September
2007 parliamentary elections were the most
transparent in the country's history, record low
participation, i.e., 37 percent of registered
voters, reflects the lack of voter confidence in the
institution.


6. (U) June Local Elections: The Government of
Morocco has allocated 12 percent of the seats in
hotly contested local and municipal council
elections on June 12, up from less than 0.5 percent
now. The entry into politics of over 3,000 elected
women office holders (the 130 now in office have
historically been more effective and immune to
corruption) and many thousands more candidates can
have potentially transformational impact. The USG
has sponsored the training of over 3,500 women over
the past 90 days, via an unusual collaborative
project between the National Democratic Institute
(NDI) and International Republican Institute (IRI).
NDI is also training party poll watchers, but we are
unaware of any formal international observation or
great interest in it for this election. Some of the
most interesting contests, including in Marrakesh,
will involve a new Party, the Party of Authenticity
and Modernity (PAM),founded by a well-known friend
of the King and former Deputy Interior Minister
Fouad Ali el Himma. Among the leading parties are
Prime Minister Abbas El Fassi's Istiqlal, the
Islamist-referent Party of Justice and Development
(PJD) and the Socialist USFP, which lost votes last
time out.


7. (SBU) Human Rights and Reform: King Mohammed VI
has embarked on an ambitious and continuous program
of human rights reforms that includes the Arab
world's first truth commission, a revised family
code and growing governmental transparency,
accountability and rule of law. 2008 saw some
incidents of concern related to freedoms of
expression and press. Although Morocco is a paragon
of reform in the region, the reforms are still not
deeply rooted in law or Constitution and could be
rolled back. Continued support and encouragement
from partners like the United States and Europe are
essential. One recent development is the expansion
of cultural rights and outlets for Berbers, one of
the largest groups in Morocco and perhaps the
largest.

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External Issues
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8. (SBU) Western Sahara: Moroccan foreign policy
is dominated by defending and seeking international
recognition of its sovereignty claims over Western
Sahara. The issue is a source of tension with long-
time rival Algeria, which has historically supported
the POLISARIO Front's quest for independence by way
of a UN-sponsored referendum. The issue led Morocco
to leave the African Union. In April 2007, Morocco
proposed a new autonomy plan for Western Sahara, and
a series of UN-sponsored negotiations with the
POLISARIO have taken place in Manhasset, New York.
The Moroccan proposal would provide Sahrawis, the
indigenous people of Western Sahara, autonomy in
administering local affairs under Moroccan
sovereignty. There have been four rounds of talks
but none since the April 2008 renewal of the mandate
of the UN peacekeeping mission, MINURSO. Following
the controversial lapsing of the contract of the
former UN Secretary General's Personal Envoy, the UN
selected retired U.S. Ambassador Chris Ross to be
the new Personal Envoy. The U.S. Government has
called for the new envoy to maintain past progress.
In April, the UN renewed the mandate of the UN
peacekeeping operation until 2010.


9. (SBU) Western Sahara Continued: Sahara
experienced gross violations of human rights from
1975 until the end of the Hassan II regime and
repression increased after the short-lived Sahrawi
"intifada" of 2005. Since late 2006, Morocco has
slowly improved the human rights situation in the
territories. Arbitrary arrests have sharply
diminished and beatings and physical abuse by
security forces have all but disappeared. Even
dissenters now can travel freely. They cannot,
however, publish or speak publicly in support of
independence, or a vote on self-determination.

Jackson