NOT SO CALM AFTER THE STORM - ELECTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L QUITO 000308

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: TEN YEARS
TAGS: PGOV OAS EC
SUBJECT: NOT SO CALM AFTER THE STORM - ELECTION
DIFFICULTIES APPEAR

Classified By: Ambassador Heather Hodges for reason 1.4 (D)


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Contrary to initial reports that Ecuador's
April 26 election went smoothly, cases of violence and fraud
in a few provinces are coming to light in the days following
the elections. Although these incidents are unlikely to
alter the outcome in the Presidential race, general
discontent with the National Electoral Council's inability to
provide official election results within their projected
timeframe continues to grow. Four days after the polls have
closed, only 50% of the votes have been counted for National
Assembly seats and international observation missions are
going home with no clear verdict on this election process.
End Summary.

ELECTION SUSPENDED DUE TO VIOLENCE


2. (SBU) The province of Manab, which is known for
irregularities in past elections, was once again a hot spot
for election-day trouble. In the city of Jipijapa, 15
political party observation delegates who suspected fraud by
Correa's PAIS party began to tear and burn ballots in one
polling station the evening of April 26. This triggered a
series of similar acts in nearby precincts which resulted in
reported destruction of 100 ballot boxes. Numerous cases of
ballots destroyed by political party sympathizers were
reported in other precincts in Manabi, as well as Guayas,
Esmeraldas, Zamora Chinchipe, and Loja provinces. The
National Electoral Council has resolved to have a re-vote on
May 3 for five cities in four provinces with a total of 462
voting stations; other results are being appealed by the
parties.

SUSPICIONS OF FRAUD MOSTLY UNFOUNDED


3. (C) In the city of Esmeraldas, candidates and their
supporters have been in the streets since April 27,
protesting what they charge was a fraudulent election.
Multiple parties have been chanting "Electoral Fraud" outside
of the Esmeraldas National Electoral Council branch and the
PAIS mayoral candidate is demanding a recount of 133 ballot
boxes. A police officer and a woman were reported injured.
Street protests have also been reported in the provinces of
Esmeraldas, Guayas, Santo Domingo, Los Rios, Loja and Santa
Elena.


4. (C) The most vocal critic of the elections has been
presidential runner-up and former president Lucio Gutirrez
who, according to the latest results from the National
Electoral Council, only received 28% of the votes compared to
Correa's 52%. Days following the election, Gutirrez made a
public pledge to galvanize the "Ecuadorian people in the
resistance" against Correa and "not allow them to steal the
election in the second round." His brother, Gilmar
Gutirrez, in phone conversation with Embassy officials,
stated that they have attempted to present their complaints
formally with the National Electoral Council, but they were
not accepted. He emphasized what he viewed to be the Council
taking their orders directly from the government. In spite
of the claims by Gutierrez and other candidates,
international observation teams have indicated that there
were no obvious incidents of fraud, although acknowledging
the confusion of the election could have allowed for it.

DISCONCERTING DELAY IN OFFICIAL RESULTS


5. (SBU) Four days after the polls closed, political
candidates, civil society, citizens, and external observers
are wondering: what is taking the National Electoral Council
so long to announce results? According to the National
Electoral Council, the intermediate counting centers were
supposed to have completed their tasks the night of April 28,
but official results are only partial so far. As of 8am on
April 30, only three-quarter of President/Vice-President
ballots had been counted (the first of the six ballots to be
registered) and an average of 50% for national and provincial
assembly races (although as little as 28% were counted in the
province of Esmeraldas). This is in stark contrast with the
National Electoral Council's projection to have 60% of all
votes for President counted by the evening of the elections.


6. (SBU) Speculation on why the National Electoral Council
was unable to accomplish their established deadlines include:
the complexity of the ballots which delayed the ballot count
at the polling station level; inexperienced poll workers;
insufficient number of staff to execute the election,s

multifaceted logistics; and the exceptionally high number of
invalid tally sheets reported (25-30%) compared to the
traditional 1% of past elections. This latter figure, which
was reported in El Comercio on April 30, is noteworthy since
it signifies that at least a quarter of all votes nationwide
will not be included in the official results until the
"actas" are reviewed by the 24 provincial counting centers.

THE JURY IS STILL OUT


7. (SBU) In its initial report released on Monday, the OAS
mission acknowledged the complexity of the April 26 elections
and the limited time period the newly established National
Electoral Council had to execute the elections. The report
also highlighted the general "peaceful and respectful
environment" of election day. However, Benamor made it clear
in a presentation on Tuesday that it was too early to make a
complete assessment of these elections. Based on qualitative
and quick count surveys completed by 90 OAS observers in 23
provinces, the vote count process was the most disorganized
aspect. Almost none of the polling station teams counted the
ballots according to regulation, and many reported incidents
of miscounting. The EU observation mission cited as a
negative element the "dominant presence" of Rafael Correa
prior to and during election day on the various media
outlets, including those of the government.

COMMENT


8. (C) It is clear that the phase of appeals and claims
against the National Electoral Council is just beginning.
Amidst surmounting complaints, the newly established National
Electoral Council appears to have fallen short of
expectations. The various election troubles, and assertion
of fraud, are not unusual for Ecuador. While an
embarrassment for Correa's government, we do not expect the
shortcomings of the election process to keep Correa off the
course of his political agenda.
HODGES