COUNTDOWN TO ELECTIONS; PRESIDENT'S RACE FOREGONE

C O N F I D E N T I A L QUITO 000296

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: TEN YEARS
TAGS: PGOV KPLS OAS EC
SUBJECT: COUNTDOWN TO ELECTIONS; PRESIDENT'S RACE FOREGONE
CONCLUSION

Classified By: Ambassador Heather Hodges for reason 1.4 (D)


1. (SBU) Summary: With three days remaining before the April
26 elections, President Correa sits comfortably ahead of all
other candidates, with polls showing him with enough votes
for a first-round win. Recently arrived international
election observation teams have reported concern with how the
lack of regulation of government propaganda has played to the
favor of the incumbent government; however, fraud on election
day is unlikely. Overall, the presidential campaign has been
lackluster, with little real debate (face to face or
otherwise) on policy issues. Key outcomes to watch are the
size of Correa's margin, and the National Assembly and Quito
mayoral race results. End Summary.

LAST-MINUTE BLUNDER AND CAMPAIGN ADJUSTMENTS


2. (SBU) Three opposition political parties were omitted in
sample city council ballots for Ecuador's largest city of
Guayaquil on the Sunday preceding the elections. The party
lists missing were the New Option movement, the Patriotic
Society Party, and most notably, Guayaquil mayor and leading
candidate Jaime Nebot's Social Christian Party and Warrior
Material Movement alliance. The National Electoral Council
took responsibility for the error and the ballot was
reprinted in El Universo, the newspaper in which the faulty
ballot was originally published. However, the reprinted
sample ballot appeared in a small space on an inside page of
the newspaper, while a GOE advertisement praising the
government,s stewardship of the economy took up the
prominent back page of the paper.


3. (SBU) On April 16, the National Electoral Council
announced that Correa would be prohibited from transmitting
his weekly radio and TV address the Saturday before
elections, in accordance with electoral rule that no
candidate may make public appearances, or activities with
"proselytizing" characteristics between April 23 and 27.
This is on the heels of a National Electoral Council decision
in late March to fine Correa $650 for criticizing his
presidential opponents during his weekly public address and
its threat to suspend the programs completely if he made any
more references to other candidates. After a public exchange
of critical words with the Council, Correa and his Proud and
Sovereign Fatherland (PAIS) movement submitted an official
appeal to the Electoral Disputes Tribunal on April 6, and
Correa at least avoided referring to his opponents by name
during his April 11 address. The appeal, along with the
March 12 appeal of the "Hey Jude" fine, is still awaiting a
ruling from the Tribunal.

NEW VOTERS EFFECT


4. (SBU) New segments of the population, totaling almost one
million of 10.5 million voters expected overall, will be
given the opportunity to vote in the elections as mandated by
the new constitution. Youth between the ages of 16 and 18,
Ecuadorians residing outside of Ecuador, foreigners residing
legally within Ecuador, military and police, and inmates
still awaiting sentences are entitled to go to the polling
booths for the first time on April 26. Although not
obligatory, over half a million youths were registered,
followed by 185,000 external Ecuadorians, nearly 100,000
military and police officers, over 80,000 non-Ecuadorians
with at least five years of legal residence in the country,
and 2,700 inmates. The local NGO, Citizen Participation has
expressed concern with potential voting bias among youths,
whose voter education was suspected to be influenced by the
leftist teachers' union, and the military and police, whose
independence from the government has been questioned in light
of recent increases in their government benefits.

POLLS IN CORREA'S FAVOR


5. (SBU) According to all three major polls, Correa has the
necessary 40% of the total votes, plus 10% more than the
runner-up, to win the presidency in the first round. Since
release of polling data was forbidden starting 20 days before
the election, the latest published data is from late March
and early April. At that time, Correa continued to lead the
next closest presidential candidate by 32, 39 and 41 points,
according to polling firms Market, CEDATOS and Santiago
Perez, respectively, and hovered around the 50% total vote
mark by all three. It is likely that Correa will cinch the
Presidency in the first round, with former president Lucio
Gutierrez and banana tycoon Alvaro Noboa trailing far behind.


PRESIDENTIAL WIN, BUT NOT A CLEAN SWEEP


6. (SBU) Unlike the expected PAIS presidential victory,
National Assembly seats and local offices continue to be
hotly contested. According to pollster Santiago Perez's data
from April 5, PAIS is slated to win a slight majority within
the legislature (53%),but not enough to block the opposition
from taking initial actions to remove cabinet members. This
outcome would mark a significant decrease from the 61% of
assembly seats they currently hold in the temporary
legislature. PAIS's showing in the CEDATOS poll from March
22 is much lower, with only 30%, but 46% undecided.


7. (SBU) At the municipal level, running as part of Correa's
PAIS movement has not necessarily proven to be the golden
ticket for local PAIS candidates. The race for the mayor of
Quito continues to be one of the closest, with the PAIS
candidate Augusto Barrera edging out Antonio Ricaurte 38% to
29% and 31% to 27%, according to Market and CEDATOS
respectively. Current mayor of Guayaquil Jaime Nebot
continues to enjoy a comfortable lead, with nearly 70% of the
vote. In the province of El Oro where Correa has a 63%
approval rating, the PAIS mayoral candidate for the
provincial capital only has 20% support, compared to the
opposition candidate's 70%.

CONCERNS SURFACE FROM PRE-ELECTION OBSERVATION


8. (SBU) The two principal international observation missions
by the European Union and the Organization of American States
have both expressed concerns during the pre-election week
with the limited training and resources for the new and
controversial intermediate counting centers (juntas
intermedias). Another major issue raised has been the lack
of clarity in the electoral public finance legislation that
has allowed excessive usage of official government publicity.
One example occurred on the April 21 weekly public service
announcement by the GOE which was essentially a 10-minute
defense of the new criminal code that has been openly
critized by the opposition in the latter half of the
campaign. According to Citizen Participation, Correa's
official campaign has only spent $300,235 of publically
financed election money as of April 17; however, the total
amount of government publicity financed during the same
period reached over $2 million dollars. This corresponds to
almost 2300 minutes of extra air time, or over four times the
amount of the next highest air time of any presidential
candidate.


9. (SBU) USG support for this year's election totals over
half a million dollars. The OAS mission received $225,000
from the USOAS, and there will be nine U.S. Embassy and
Consulate volunteer observers. USAID is providing a total of
$269,000 of technical assistance to the GOE National
Electoral Council to implement a country-wide
voters-with-disabilities campaign and to the Electoral
Disputes Tribunal to increase their institutional capacity
through trainings and operational support. The major
domestic observation effort by USAID-supported NGO Citizen
Participation, will have 8,000 observers in all 24 provinces
to monitor election-day proceedings. Citizen Participation
will also conduct a quick count of the presidential and
assembly races that will be produced parallel to the official
GOE count.

COMMENT


10. (C) A combination of election fatigue and universal
acceptance of another four years of a Correa presidency has
made for an uninteresting election at the national level.
The lack of new ideas amongst the other presidential
hopefuls, or any sincere attempt to address issues of
concern, has left the Ecuadorian electorate with no
alternative to the status quo. The local campaign races have
proven to be more dynamic, and it is likely that any
substantial opposition to a future Correa administration will
come from local government leaders.
HODGES