Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09QUITO202
2009-03-24 17:31:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Quito
how-toVZCZCXYZ0007 OO RUEHWEB DE RUEHQT #0202/01 0831731 ZNY CCCCC ZZH O 241731Z MAR 09 FM AMEMBASSY QUITO TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0189 INFO RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA 8054 RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA 4116 RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 3466 RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ MAR LIMA 3114 RUEHGL/AMCONSUL GUAYAQUIL 4208
C O N F I D E N T I A L QUITO 000202
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: TEN YEARS
TAGS: PGOV EC
SUBJECT: ELECTION CAMPAIGN KICKOFF CONTENTIOUS
REF: 08 QUITO 616
Classified By: Ambassador Heather Hodges for reason 1.4 (D)
C O N F I D E N T I A L QUITO 000202
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: TEN YEARS
TAGS: PGOV EC
SUBJECT: ELECTION CAMPAIGN KICKOFF CONTENTIOUS
REF: 08 QUITO 616
Classified By: Ambassador Heather Hodges for reason 1.4 (D)
1. (SBU) Summary: T...
id: 198604
date: 3/24/2009 17:31
refid: 09QUITO202
origin: Embassy Quito
classification: CONFIDENTIAL
destination: 08QUITO616
header:
VZCZCXYZ0007
OO RUEHWEB
DE RUEHQT #0202/01 0831731
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 241731Z MAR 09
FM AMEMBASSY QUITO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0189
INFO RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA 8054
RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA 4116
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 3466
RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ MAR LIMA 3114
RUEHGL/AMCONSUL GUAYAQUIL 4208
-------------- header ends --------------
C O N F I D E N T I A L QUITO 000202
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: TEN YEARS
TAGS: PGOV EC
SUBJECT: ELECTION CAMPAIGN KICKOFF CONTENTIOUS
REF: 08 QUITO 616
Classified By: Ambassador Heather Hodges for reason 1.4 (D)
1. (SBU) Summary: Two weeks into the 45-day campaign period
leading up to the April 26 elections, the National Electoral
Council is wrestling with controlling government propaganda.
President Correa will likely win in the first round, but he
is not assured the strong National Assembly majority and
local wins he seeks. End Summary.
THE STAKES
2. (SBU) The 45-day campaign period started March 10 and is
scheduled to end on April 23, three days before the
elections. At stake are the offices of president and vice
president, 124 National Assembly seats, 46 prefects and vice
prefects (who govern provinces),221 mayors, and 1,581 city
councilors. Five Andean Parliament members and 3,985 members
of rural parish boards will be elected June 14, together with
the presidential second round, if needed.
3. (SBU) Many opposition parties appear to believe that
mounting presidential campaigns will help their candidates
for other offices even if there is no chance of beating
Correa. Eight candidates are running for the presidency
after two were disqualified. President Correa's top
opponents are: 1) banana magnate Alvaro Noboa of the
National Action Institutional Renewal Party, who out-polled
Correa in the first round in 2006, and 2) former president
Lucio Gutierrez of the Patriotic Society Party, a retired
army colonel who took part in a coup d'etat that toppled
President Mahuad in 2000, was elected to the presidency in
2002, and ousted from office in 2005 after widespread popular
discontent. Correa also has opposition on his left, notably
Marta Roldos, heading a coalition between her Ethics and
Democracy Movement and the Democratic Pole Movement.
4. (SBU) Candidate selection was hard fought within Correa's
Proud and Sovereign Fatherland (PAIS) movement due to the
range of views (from the center to far left) and different
groups. The PAIS political bureau chose the candidates for
some key positions. For the rest, PAIS held open primaries
on January 25, but turnout was quite modest and the process
was plagued with irregularities, including ballots not
printed correctly and provinces where the ballots never
arrived. In three provinces voting was suspended. Those
irregularities translated into discontent of candidates, with
some of them publicly questioning the process. In response,
PAIS applied sanctions, ranging from disqualifying
candidacies to expelling members from PAIS. Other parties
held closed primaries or none at all.
CAMPAIGN RULES AND TRANSGRESSORS
5. (SBU) In an attempt to give all candidates the same chance
of being heard, the 2008 constitution's transition regime
established public financing of the 2009 campaign for
advertising in the written press, television, radio, and
street signs. Candidates are prohibited from using their own
funds for advertising or giving out campaign gifts or
donations. The new National Electoral Council, an interim
body appointed in October 2008, will disburse $35 million for
election advertising.
6. (SBU) President Correa's Saturday radio and television
addresses are continuing during the campaign. The National
Electoral Council has stated that no rules are broken as long
as Correa does not request that the audience vote for or
against a candidate or political party. The National
Electoral Council's rationale is that the broadcasts are not
financed with public funds because stations voluntarily air
them. However, Correa has not hesitated during these
addresses in making comments aimed at undermining his
opponents in the presidential race and making clear that
voting for his movement would allow the government to make
further progress with the "citizen revolution."
7. (SBU) While Correa is not the only candidate who has been
accused of violating the campaign rules, he is the one who
has the most public exposure and impact. His opponents and
many commentators criticize this advantage. Jose Toledo,
former News Vice President for the three television channels
seized by the government last year from the Isaias brothers
(Reftel),resigned on February 27 arguing that some
candidates expected priority access to television programs.
8. (SBU) In the face of mounting criticism, the National
Electoral Council approved rules on March 4 aimed at
controlling unlawful campaigning. During the campaign
period, candidates may appear in the radio, television, and
press only if it is financed with allocated public funds,
subject to fines for violations. All official government
communication is prohibited 48 hours before the elections,
thus supposedly ruling out Correa's April 25 TV/radio address.
9. (SBU) The dispute over campaign rules came to a head on
March 6 when the National Electoral Council imposed a $650
dollar fine on the Correa presidential campaign for a
government TV spot extolling the citizen revolution, to the
tune of "Hey Jude." The government said the advertisement's
purpose was to promote optimism, but with its frequent use of
the PAIS slogan and images of Correa on posters in the
background, the National Electoral Council considered it
campaigning. Correa appealed the fine, arguing that he did
not appear in the advertisement. The mastermind behind the
Correa government's constant advertising, Administration and
Communications Secretary Vinicio Alvarado, met March 12 with
the National Electoral Council to discuss official
advertising and agreed to suspend the controversial
advertisement during the campaign. He also agreed not to use
the slogans "the fatherland now belongs to everyone" and the
"citizen revolution" in other government propaganda. Despite
this agreement, the "Hey Jude" ad continued to air for two
more days.
POLLING DATA SHOWS MANY RACES COMPETITIVE
10. (SBU) Three polling firms give Correa a lead of about 40
points over his opponents. Santiago Perez, who is considered
the government's pollster, estimates that Correa will receive
53% of the vote, followed by Lucio Gutierrez with 13% and
Alvaro Noboa with 11%. Pollsters differ as to whether the
runner-up will be Gutierrez or Noboa, but in either scenario
a runoff election appears unlikely. Under Ecuador's new
constitution, a runoff is not necessary if the winner reaches
at least 40% of valid votes and comes out more than 10 points
ahead of the runner-up, or if the winner receives more than
50% of valid votes.
11. (SBU) Pollster Santiago Cuesta believes that Correa has
popular support, but that such support does not translate
into votes for other PAIS candidates. Opinion Profiles
reported 68% of those surveyed intended to support the
reelection of Guayaquil's Mayor Nebot, compared to 16% for
Correa's candidate, Maria de los Angeles Duarte. In Guayas
province, opposition candidate Jimmy Jairala was reported to
have at least a 10-point lead in the race for prefect over
Correa's sister Pierina. In Quito, the campaign for the
mayor's office is competitive. In Cuenca (Ecuador's third
largest city),the PAIS candidate is in a tight race with the
incumbent mayor. The incumbents in other large coastal
cities, such as Machala and Manta, are polling strongly
against their PAIS rivals.
COMMENT
12. (C) Correa's bid for reelection, in spite of a struggling
economy, will likely be successful in the first round. His
government programs to benefit the poor, appeals to
nationalism, and disproportionate access to the mass media
make him a very tough competitor. The opposition, which has
not been able to regroup after the last four lost elections,
does not offer a compelling alternative on the national
level. We credit the National Electoral Council for taking a
stab at leveling the playing field. National Assembly seats
and local offices are what is really at play.
HODGES
=======================CABLE ENDS============================
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: TEN YEARS
TAGS: PGOV EC
SUBJECT: ELECTION CAMPAIGN KICKOFF CONTENTIOUS
REF: 08 QUITO 616
Classified By: Ambassador Heather Hodges for reason 1.4 (D)
1. (SBU) Summary: T...
id: 198604
date: 3/24/2009 17:31
refid: 09QUITO202
origin: Embassy Quito
classification: CONFIDENTIAL
destination: 08QUITO616
header:
VZCZCXYZ0007
OO RUEHWEB
DE RUEHQT #0202/01 0831731
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 241731Z MAR 09
FM AMEMBASSY QUITO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0189
INFO RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA 8054
RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA 4116
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 3466
RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ MAR LIMA 3114
RUEHGL/AMCONSUL GUAYAQUIL 4208
-------------- header ends --------------
C O N F I D E N T I A L QUITO 000202
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: TEN YEARS
TAGS: PGOV EC
SUBJECT: ELECTION CAMPAIGN KICKOFF CONTENTIOUS
REF: 08 QUITO 616
Classified By: Ambassador Heather Hodges for reason 1.4 (D)
1. (SBU) Summary: Two weeks into the 45-day campaign period
leading up to the April 26 elections, the National Electoral
Council is wrestling with controlling government propaganda.
President Correa will likely win in the first round, but he
is not assured the strong National Assembly majority and
local wins he seeks. End Summary.
THE STAKES
2. (SBU) The 45-day campaign period started March 10 and is
scheduled to end on April 23, three days before the
elections. At stake are the offices of president and vice
president, 124 National Assembly seats, 46 prefects and vice
prefects (who govern provinces),221 mayors, and 1,581 city
councilors. Five Andean Parliament members and 3,985 members
of rural parish boards will be elected June 14, together with
the presidential second round, if needed.
3. (SBU) Many opposition parties appear to believe that
mounting presidential campaigns will help their candidates
for other offices even if there is no chance of beating
Correa. Eight candidates are running for the presidency
after two were disqualified. President Correa's top
opponents are: 1) banana magnate Alvaro Noboa of the
National Action Institutional Renewal Party, who out-polled
Correa in the first round in 2006, and 2) former president
Lucio Gutierrez of the Patriotic Society Party, a retired
army colonel who took part in a coup d'etat that toppled
President Mahuad in 2000, was elected to the presidency in
2002, and ousted from office in 2005 after widespread popular
discontent. Correa also has opposition on his left, notably
Marta Roldos, heading a coalition between her Ethics and
Democracy Movement and the Democratic Pole Movement.
4. (SBU) Candidate selection was hard fought within Correa's
Proud and Sovereign Fatherland (PAIS) movement due to the
range of views (from the center to far left) and different
groups. The PAIS political bureau chose the candidates for
some key positions. For the rest, PAIS held open primaries
on January 25, but turnout was quite modest and the process
was plagued with irregularities, including ballots not
printed correctly and provinces where the ballots never
arrived. In three provinces voting was suspended. Those
irregularities translated into discontent of candidates, with
some of them publicly questioning the process. In response,
PAIS applied sanctions, ranging from disqualifying
candidacies to expelling members from PAIS. Other parties
held closed primaries or none at all.
CAMPAIGN RULES AND TRANSGRESSORS
5. (SBU) In an attempt to give all candidates the same chance
of being heard, the 2008 constitution's transition regime
established public financing of the 2009 campaign for
advertising in the written press, television, radio, and
street signs. Candidates are prohibited from using their own
funds for advertising or giving out campaign gifts or
donations. The new National Electoral Council, an interim
body appointed in October 2008, will disburse $35 million for
election advertising.
6. (SBU) President Correa's Saturday radio and television
addresses are continuing during the campaign. The National
Electoral Council has stated that no rules are broken as long
as Correa does not request that the audience vote for or
against a candidate or political party. The National
Electoral Council's rationale is that the broadcasts are not
financed with public funds because stations voluntarily air
them. However, Correa has not hesitated during these
addresses in making comments aimed at undermining his
opponents in the presidential race and making clear that
voting for his movement would allow the government to make
further progress with the "citizen revolution."
7. (SBU) While Correa is not the only candidate who has been
accused of violating the campaign rules, he is the one who
has the most public exposure and impact. His opponents and
many commentators criticize this advantage. Jose Toledo,
former News Vice President for the three television channels
seized by the government last year from the Isaias brothers
(Reftel),resigned on February 27 arguing that some
candidates expected priority access to television programs.
8. (SBU) In the face of mounting criticism, the National
Electoral Council approved rules on March 4 aimed at
controlling unlawful campaigning. During the campaign
period, candidates may appear in the radio, television, and
press only if it is financed with allocated public funds,
subject to fines for violations. All official government
communication is prohibited 48 hours before the elections,
thus supposedly ruling out Correa's April 25 TV/radio address.
9. (SBU) The dispute over campaign rules came to a head on
March 6 when the National Electoral Council imposed a $650
dollar fine on the Correa presidential campaign for a
government TV spot extolling the citizen revolution, to the
tune of "Hey Jude." The government said the advertisement's
purpose was to promote optimism, but with its frequent use of
the PAIS slogan and images of Correa on posters in the
background, the National Electoral Council considered it
campaigning. Correa appealed the fine, arguing that he did
not appear in the advertisement. The mastermind behind the
Correa government's constant advertising, Administration and
Communications Secretary Vinicio Alvarado, met March 12 with
the National Electoral Council to discuss official
advertising and agreed to suspend the controversial
advertisement during the campaign. He also agreed not to use
the slogans "the fatherland now belongs to everyone" and the
"citizen revolution" in other government propaganda. Despite
this agreement, the "Hey Jude" ad continued to air for two
more days.
POLLING DATA SHOWS MANY RACES COMPETITIVE
10. (SBU) Three polling firms give Correa a lead of about 40
points over his opponents. Santiago Perez, who is considered
the government's pollster, estimates that Correa will receive
53% of the vote, followed by Lucio Gutierrez with 13% and
Alvaro Noboa with 11%. Pollsters differ as to whether the
runner-up will be Gutierrez or Noboa, but in either scenario
a runoff election appears unlikely. Under Ecuador's new
constitution, a runoff is not necessary if the winner reaches
at least 40% of valid votes and comes out more than 10 points
ahead of the runner-up, or if the winner receives more than
50% of valid votes.
11. (SBU) Pollster Santiago Cuesta believes that Correa has
popular support, but that such support does not translate
into votes for other PAIS candidates. Opinion Profiles
reported 68% of those surveyed intended to support the
reelection of Guayaquil's Mayor Nebot, compared to 16% for
Correa's candidate, Maria de los Angeles Duarte. In Guayas
province, opposition candidate Jimmy Jairala was reported to
have at least a 10-point lead in the race for prefect over
Correa's sister Pierina. In Quito, the campaign for the
mayor's office is competitive. In Cuenca (Ecuador's third
largest city),the PAIS candidate is in a tight race with the
incumbent mayor. The incumbents in other large coastal
cities, such as Machala and Manta, are polling strongly
against their PAIS rivals.
COMMENT
12. (C) Correa's bid for reelection, in spite of a struggling
economy, will likely be successful in the first round. His
government programs to benefit the poor, appeals to
nationalism, and disproportionate access to the mass media
make him a very tough competitor. The opposition, which has
not been able to regroup after the last four lost elections,
does not offer a compelling alternative on the national
level. We credit the National Electoral Council for taking a
stab at leveling the playing field. National Assembly seats
and local offices are what is really at play.
HODGES
=======================CABLE ENDS============================