Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09QUITO117
2009-02-17 16:35:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Quito
Cable title:  

ANALYSTS OFFER DIVERGENT VIEWS ON POLITICAL SCENE

Tags:  PGOV PREL ENRG EC CO IR 
pdf how-to read a cable
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TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0032
INFO RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA 7965
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C O N F I D E N T I A L QUITO 000117 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/06/2024
TAGS: PGOV PREL ENRG EC CO IR
SUBJECT: ANALYSTS OFFER DIVERGENT VIEWS ON POLITICAL SCENE

Classified By: Ambassador Heather Hodges for reason 1.4 (D)

C O N F I D E N T I A L QUITO 000117

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/06/2024
TAGS: PGOV PREL ENRG EC CO IR
SUBJECT: ANALYSTS OFFER DIVERGENT VIEWS ON POLITICAL SCENE

Classified By: Ambassador Heather Hodges for reason 1.4 (D)


1. (C) SUMMARY: The diversity of the Ecuadorian political
debate was on display during a breakfast with WHA/AND
Director Whitaker. Some analysts saw President Correa
staking out the electoral center amidst waning voter
interest, while another participant highlighted what he
considered successful PAIS primaries. The constitution was
either a product of exceptional citizen input or an Executive
power grab implemented selectively to undermine government
institutions. Correa's approach to the gas subsidy was
likewise praised and derided. Whitaker explained the
Washington perspective on Ecuador's expanded ties with Iran.
End Summary.


2. (C) Five political analysts joined a breakfast hosted by
the Ambassador February 5 for WHA/AND Director Kevin
Whitaker. They were Andean Simon Bolivar University
professor Pablo Andrade; San Franciso University of Quito
professor Carlos Espinosa; Vistazo magazine general editor
Patricia Estupinan de Burbano; state-owned Ecuador TV
journalist Xavier Lasso; and Central University professor
Rafael Quintero.

CORREA'S ASTUTE ELECTORAL POSITIONING


3. (C) Andrade highlighted President Correa's success in
defining his position as the center, situated between what
Correa called an "infantile left" (such as the indigenous
movement, which opposes any mining) and a marginalized right
made up of the old political parties. Asked why there were
so few indications of the upcoming April 26 elections on view
in Quito, he responded that many candidates had waited to
register until just before the deadline that day, typical of
Ecuador's last minute culture.


4. (C) Estupinan attributed the environment to voters'
exhaustion after a string of elections. Furthermore, the
outcome (Correa winning the presidency) was not in doubt.
Quintero countered that many voters did show interest in the
Proud and Sovereign Fatherland (PAIS) movement primary
elections. He called it unfair to criticize the primaries
which, although not perfect, had problems in only 50 of 4000
polling sites. Quintero pointed out that the PAIS primary

was the first ever in Ecuador open to all voters.

THE CONSTITUTION IN BLACK AND WHITE


5. (C) Quintero, who was a Constituent Assembly advisor,
emphasized the degree of citizen input in the process leading
to the new constitution, with thousands of groups flocking to
Montecristi and millions of individuals visiting its website.
He believed the constitution would redistribute power in
important ways, citing as an example that rural parish
("parroquia") councils would now enjoy real responsibilities
and budgets and greater rural representation.


6. (C) Andrade espoused a starkly different view, namely that
the constitution centralized power in the Executive. He
believed Correa was implementing select constitutional
provisions when he found it expedient and ignoring the
others. There was also criticism of the inclusion of the
electromagnetic spectrum (meaning radio and television
frequencies) in a section of the constitution on natural
resources, which implied a large percentage of earnings must
be paid to the state.

CORREA POLITICAL PROJECT


7. (C) Andrade called Correa the new "caudillo," comparing
his behavior to past presidents on the right. He said Correa
was using the Legislative and Oversight Commission to ram
through important legislation, such as the mining and
judicial laws. Andrade considered the result of Correa's
policies to be undermining government institutions.


8. (C) Lasso stressed that decades of corrupt governments led
Ecuadorians to seek change under Correa. Quintero described
past presidents as reversing their positions immediately
after election, while Correa broke from this mold. Quintero,
a member of the Socialist party, said Correa had made
socialism acceptable rather than something Ecuadorians
recoiled from. Lasso credited Correa for making "revolution"
acceptable as well, emphasizing that it was a people's
revolution, not a violent one.

ECONOMIC PRAGMATISM


9. (C) Andrade considered Correa often pragmatic,
particularly in the economic arena. Lasso said Correa knew
better than to try to impose a "paquetazo" (harsh measures to
balance the budget) in response to the current financial
crisis. He recounted how for many years he bought gasoline
at state-owned PetroComercial where prices were lower.
However, Correa, knowing the lower prices reflected not
greater efficiency but a higher government subsidy, decided
this had to stop.


10. (C) Lasso also credited the Correa government for its
approach to the natural gas subsidy. Rather than hurt the
poor by increasing the price of a gas cylinder from $1.60 to
$9.00, the GOE was moving to hydroelectric power and
providing electric stoves to the poor. Then if subsidies
were cut, it would be the well-off who had to rationalize
expenses. Estupinan argued that gas subsidies encouraged
excess consumption. All participants recognized that cutting
subsidies before the election would be instant political
suicide.


11. (C) Lasso criticized the private media for not reporting
on issues like these. Estupinan responded (rather weakly)
that, "people don't want to read about it."

FOREIGN POLICY PERSPECTIVES


12. (C) The Ambassador asked whether Correa's trips to Iran
and Cuba were designed to woo voters. Espinosa replied that
voters did not care about foreign policy. Andrade suggested
that Correa's "personal ideology" was more evident overseas.


13. (C) WHA/AND Director Whitaker conveyed a sense of the
Washington environment, where many issues crowded the policy
agenda, and impressions of foreign countries tended to be
single-faceted. What stuck out in many minds about Ecuador
was that its president visited Iran and endorsed its nuclear
program. Iran is a third-rail issue across the U.S.
political spectrum. Some participants argued it was unfair
that Brazil could visit and trade with Iran without
opprobrium, while small Ecuador could not. Lasso quoted
President Obama that the U.S. was willing to extend a hand if
Iran unclenched its fist. Whitaker clarified that Obama's
statement was aimed at all countries, but agreed it applied
to Iran.


14. (C) Andrade termed Correa's foreign policy as relatively
pragmatic. He considered the continued absence of diplomatic
relations with Colombia the exception, calling it senseless
but unlikely to change while Correa and Uribe were in power.
Andrade did not believe that Ecuadorians wanted to see their
government fight with the U.S. Espinosa said that the GOE
sought to revitalize ties with the U.S. and other traditional
partners.


15. (C) Espinosa decried the fact that none of Correa's three
foreign ministers was a foreign policy professional. Andrade
considered Falconi's appointment positive since he was close
to Correa, Henry Kissinger's key criterion for effectiveness
in such a position.

HODGES