SOUTH AFRICA FEARS ZIMBABWE MAY BE SLIDING BACK

C O N F I D E N T I A L PRETORIA 002312


DEPT FOR AF/S - DIOPM, WALKES, WALCHB

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/12/2019
TAGS: KDEM PGOV PREL ZANU SF ZI
SUBJECT: SOUTH AFRICA FEARS ZIMBABWE MAY BE SLIDING BACK

Classified By: Political Counselor Walter N.S. Pflaumer.
Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (U) Summary: During a press conference on November 10,
Department of International Relations and Cooperation (DIRCO)
Director General Dr. Ayanda Ntsaluba said regional leaders
feared Zimbabwe could be sliding back from progress on the
political and humanitarian fronts since the inception of the
inclusive government, which coincides with President Jacob
Zuma's emergence as facilitator for the next round of
negotiations. Ntsaluba said the "tight" timeframes for
resolution of outstanding issues amongst Zimbabwe's governing
political parties signaled impatience of the Southern Africa
Development Community (SADC) leaders with the slow pace of
progress in implementing the Global Political Agreement
(GPA). SADC expects the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC)
to join the call for lifting of sanctions, according to
Ntsaluba. He congratulated the European Union (EU) for
re-engaging with the Government of Zimbabwe (GOZ). He also
said the SAG agreed with the Kimberley Process decision not
to suspend Zimbabwe. End summary.

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SADC IMPATIENT WITH ZIMBABWE'S LEADERS
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2. (U) Ntsaluba remarked on what he said was the general
sense that the political and humanitarian situation in
Zimbabwe was beginning to improve under the inclusive
government, but said regional leaders feared that the "petty
squabbling and politicking amongst the leadership of
Zimbabwe" would cause the country to slide back. When asked
about meeting the 30-day deadline for resolving outstanding
issues, he said they could not guarantee the deadline would
be met. He went on to say, "The fact that there were clear
timeframes that were put, and the fact that those timeframes
are as tight as they are, is just really a signal of some
degree of impatience of the regional leadership around the
fact that the political leadership of Zimbabwe must not
squander what appears to be the opportunity, perhaps their
only opportunity, to pull the country out of the abyss..."


3. (C) Freedom House Regional Director Karl Beck shared with
Poloff a readout of the SADC Troika meeting in Maputo from
Zimbabwean Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai's Legal Advisor
Jacob Mafume. Zuma's participation in the Troika meeting was
sudden and unexpected, according to Mafume's understanding.
He said Zuma assumed responsibility for personally
facilitating further implementation of the GPA. He clarified
that former President Thabo Mbeki and his aides Frank Chikane
and Mojanku Gumbi would no longer be involved. (Note: An
aide to South African Foreign Minister Maite Nkoana-Mashabane
confirmed to Ambassador Gips that Zuma is the new SADC
facilitator. End note.) According to what Mafume told Beck,
Zuma told Tsvangirai privately that he was concerned about
Zanu-PF's capacity to perpetrate violence. Mafume said the
MDC is under the impression that Zuma favors Zanu-PF, but has
lost patience with Mugabe. He said to Beck that the MDC
believes Zuma is frightened about the potential negative
effects on South Africa's World Cup if Zimbabwe "blows up."

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SAG SATISFIED WITH MDC'S RE-ENGAGEMENT
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4. (U) Ntsaluba remarked, "We are indeed very happy that the
MDC has gone back to the inclusive government. We are
encouraged by the fact that all the parties in Zimbabwe,
regardless of the differences, communicated very clearly to
the heads of the region that the inclusive government
essentially is the only game in town, and that everything
should be done to make sure that the inclusive government
becomes successful."

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CONTENTIOUS ISSUES
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5. (U) Ntsaluba noted that the delegation to Zimbabwe from
the SADC Organ of Politics, Defense and Security had
recognized that some issues were impeding successful
operation of the inclusive government. He listed the main
issues, beginning with those of the MDC: "the issue of the
governor of the Reserve Bank, attorney general, the
provincial governors and the issue of Roy Bennett, and then
the issue of what was characterized as basically the
re-emergence of, let us say, political insecurity in a sense,
and the issue of possible new land invasions. On the
government's side, there have been raising a number of
issues. The one issue was of course what they regard as the
non-commitment of the MDC team in particular to the
commitment undertaken to the full lifting of sanctions and
accusations that, therefore, the MDC team has not delivered
on its side of the mandate, of the bargain." When asked
whether SADC expected the MDC to effect the lifting of
sanctions, Ntsaluba said the MDC alone could not carry that
responsibility. He then reminded the press corps that the
lifting of sanctions was a SADC position, adding, "We would
expect all the parties to be unambiguous in communicating
that view."


6. (U) Ntsaluba mentioned Zanu-PF's claims of the existence
of a parallel government, which he said refers to support
that the MDC allegedly receives from some international
donors. He noted the fragility of the political process in
Zimbabwe and cautioned the international community to be
sensitive to the possibility of misunderstanding when
providing assistance. He congratulated the EU for its recent
high-level visit to Zimbabwe and meetings with the GOZ. He
said, "As South Africa, we have been really very happy with
the open re-engagement of the European Union and other major
donors formally with the formal structures of the government
of Zimbabwe, so that we can cross this barrier of a suspicion
that the rest of the international community wants to support
only one faction of the government, because that is not
conducive to any effective functioning of a cabinet
collective."

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PLEASED WITH KIMBERLEY PROCESS DECISION
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7. (U) Ntsaluba described the November 2-5 meeting of the
Kimberley Process (KP) as a "very heated discussion." While
some called for suspending Zimbabwe, the majority agreed with
the GOZ on a work plan to meet KP expectations. He remarked,
"And we are particularly happy with that outcome. We think
it is the correct outcome."


8. (C) South African BlomDiamonds President Ernest Blom told
Minerals/Energy Officer that he thought the KP artful
compromise to give Zimbabwe six months to "get its house in
order" versus some sort of suspension was the right path. He
noted that there was strong resistance to suspension from
Asia, Africa, and Rio Tinto (which operates a legitimate mine
in Zimbabwe). Although Marange diamonds are easily
identifiable, there is no provision in KP for a partial
suspension, he said. He admitted he had "mixed feelings"
about giving Zimbabwe more time, given the apparent human
rights violations. He noted that apparently (his emphasis)
private companies now had more control of the Marange site.
Blom said that the U.S., Canada, E.U., and NGOs comprised a
strong lobby for full suspension, but they bowed to the
consensus. Blom said he was heading to Antwerp for World
Federation of Diamond Bourses meetings (he is the president)
and he would be happy to share views afterwards.


9. (C) Comment: Although Ntsaluba is not in the inner circle
on South Africa's Zimbabwe policy, his statements to the
press provide a strong indication of SAG attitudes and views
Qpress provide a strong indication of SAG attitudes and views
regarding Zimbabwe. Of particular interest is the fact that
he referred to ZANU-PF as "the government" and as "the ruling
party," suggesting that the SAG is aware that the inclusive
government falls short of a true power-sharing arrangement.
Ntsaluba made a point of presenting both the MDC and ZANU-PF
positions, critical for developing credibility as the SADC
facilitator for this crisis. Although most observers expect
Zuma to be more sympathetic to the MDC than Mbeki was, we
still believe he will favor ZANU-PF over the MDC. That said,
Nstaluba's comments about the "impatience" of regional
leaders with all the Zimbabwean leaders tracks with what we
have heard about the views of the South African political
elite, including Zuma. End comment.


GIPS