Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09PRETORIA182
2009-01-30 11:37:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Pretoria
Cable title:  

UDM WELL-ORGANIZED, BUT LACKS SUPPORT NEEDED TO

Tags:  KJUS PGOV SF 
pdf how-to read a cable
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ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 301137Z JAN 09 ZDS
FM AMEMBASSY PRETORIA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 7191
INFO RUEHZO/AFRICAN UNION COLLECTIVE
RUEHTN/AMCONSUL CAPE TOWN 6516
RUEHDU/AMCONSUL DURBAN 0642
RUEHJO/AMCONSUL JOHANNESBURG 8863
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
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RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PRETORIA 000182 

SENSITIVE

SIPDIS

C O R R E C T E D C O P Y (PARA 1 & 5 MARKINGS)

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: KJUS PGOV SF
SUBJECT: UDM WELL-ORGANIZED, BUT LACKS SUPPORT NEEDED TO
MAKE IMPACT IN ELECTION

PRETORIA 00000182 001.6 OF 002


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Summary
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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PRETORIA 000182

SENSITIVE

SIPDIS

C O R R E C T E D C O P Y (PARA 1 & 5 MARKINGS)

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: KJUS PGOV SF
SUBJECT: UDM WELL-ORGANIZED, BUT LACKS SUPPORT NEEDED TO
MAKE IMPACT IN ELECTION

PRETORIA 00000182 001.6 OF 002


--------------
Summary
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1. (SBU) The United Democratic Movement (UDM) ran a
well-organized, nationally televised manifesto launch in
Johannesburg on January 24 that on the face of it suggests
Bantu Holomisa's party is ready to make inroads in the
upcoming election. The party drew roughly 5,000 supporters,
almost all from the party's base in Eastern Cape, to the
South African National Convention Centre on the weekend.
Holomisa's promise that the party would focus on economic
development, combating crime, improving education, fighting
corruption, saving the environment, improving health care,
and pushing electoral reform was televised across the country
on the South Africa Broadcasting Corporation (SABC). The
emergence of the Congress of the People (COPE) and the lack
of viable party candidates aside from Holomisa makes it
unlikely the UDM will improve its fortunes drastically
despite its successful launch. End Summary.

--------------
UDM Launches Manifesto
--------------


2. (U) The UDM held its policy manifesto launch at the South
African National Convention Centre in southwestern
Johannesburg on January 24. The launch, well attended by
both party supporters and journalists, was broadcast live on
SABC. (Note: The SABC's decision to broadcast the UDM's
policy manifesto launch rather than the COPE manifesto launch
in Eastern Cape drew condemnation from Mosiuoa Lekota's party
even though the corporation stated its obligation to cover
parties with at least one percent representation in
Parliament. Lekota boycotted a debate among political
parties on January 25 because of the broadcasting service's
decision. End Note.) UDM party leaders and media
representatives gauged the crowd to be roughly 5,000. The
atmosphere was that of a family reunion, with nearly everyone
in the crowd wearing party t-shirts adorned with Holomisa's
photo. (Note: Poloffs noted that most of the vehicles in the
convention center's parking lot showed Eastern Cape plates.
End Note.) Despite a relaxed atmosphere from the crowd,
there was very little dancing and the only music came when
the party played its official election anthem on speakers.


3. (U) The UDM's launch was well-organized and efficient.

Party volunteers ushered journalists and diplomats from the
main auditorium to the VIP section for smaller discussions
and refreshments. The volunteers made sure every guest had a
copy of the UDM manifesto and other party pamphlets. Party
leaders sat quietly on the main podium throughout all the
speeches and the remarks started and ended on schedule,
largely because of the time allotted to the party by the
SABC. Most of the leaders were relatively unknown to the
journalists and diplomats at the event. University of South
Africa political scientist Dirk Kotze commented that the UDM
launch was the most organized event he has attended this
election cycle. He said, "The speeches gave a clear
indication of where this party wants to go." (Note: Kotze
also said the UDM is everything that COPE hopes to avoid -- a
party formed as a protest against the ANC by a leader with
support in the Eastern Cape. End Note.)

--------------
UDM Pushes Extensive Manifesto
--------------


4. (U) The UDM pledged to focus on economic development,
Q4. (U) The UDM pledged to focus on economic development,
combating crime, improving education, fighting corruption,
saving the environment, improving health care, and pushing
electoral reform. (Note: For more information see the UDM's
website at www.udm.org.za. End Note.) Holomisa went through
each of the campaign issues during his speech, which was
later used along with music as the party's official election
anthem. However, he spoke in generalities when he addressed
the issues, offering few concrete examples of how the UDM can
improve some of the country's most pressing challenges. For
instance, on corruption, Holomisa noted that the UDM has a
"zero-tolerance approach to corruption and nepotism; South
Africans must be able to trust their leaders in government."
On the environment, he noted, "An environmental crisis is
looming in South Africa." The only issue on which Holomisa
did present an alternative was on electoral reform. He said,
"For many years the UDM has advocated for a more accountable

PRETORIA 00000182 002.4 OF 002


electoral system -- a directly elected President and a mix of
constituency-based and proportional representation in
Parliament and provincial legislatures." (Note: The issue
of electoral reform has taken off among political parties
still upset over the forced recall of former President Thabo
Mbeki. End Note.) Poloffs spoke with several UDM members
about their reasons for supporting the UDM. One member said,
"I support the party because I support Holomisa. We need
change in this country and he can do it." Another noted, "I
think we have strong issues, but an even stronger leader."


--------------
Comment
--------------


5. (SBU) The UDM's policy manifesto launch was
well-organized and efficient, but those characterizations
probably will not do much to improve the party's chances in
the election. Holomisa's party will be challenged by COPE
because both are laying claim, along with the African
National Congress (ANC),to broad support in the Eastern
Cape. There were signs of significant support for the UDM
from the Eastern Cape, but there was little indication that
the party is drawing enough support nationally to overtake
the ANC or COPE. The party also is challenged by the fact
that it is still very much Holomisa's party, without many
recognizable candidates beyond him. The party for now seems
to remain popular with those who identify with Holomisa and
believe he can deliver change.
BALL