Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09PRETORIA1760
2009-09-01 08:56:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Pretoria
Cable title:  

THREE YEARS UNTIL PARTY CONGRESS, BUT ANC

Tags:  KDEM ASEC SF PGOV 
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PRETORIA 001760 

C O R R E C T E D C O P Y (REASON FOR CLASSIFICATION)

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/01/2019
TAGS: KDEM ASEC SF PGOV
SUBJECT: THREE YEARS UNTIL PARTY CONGRESS, BUT ANC
SUCCESSION RACE ALREADY HEATING UP

PRETORIA 00001760 001.4 OF 002


CLASSIFIED BY: CLASSIFIED BY POLITICAL APPOINTEE OFFICER
Madeline Seidenstricker for reasons 1.4 b and d.

-------
Summary
-------

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PRETORIA 001760

C O R R E C T E D C O P Y (REASON FOR CLASSIFICATION)

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/01/2019
TAGS: KDEM ASEC SF PGOV
SUBJECT: THREE YEARS UNTIL PARTY CONGRESS, BUT ANC
SUCCESSION RACE ALREADY HEATING UP

PRETORIA 00001760 001.4 OF 002


CLASSIFIED BY: CLASSIFIED BY POLITICAL APPOINTEE OFFICER
Madeline Seidenstricker for reasons 1.4 b and d.

--------------
Summary
--------------


1. (C) Barely five months into the Jacob Zuma
administration, the race to replace him -- or retain him --
at the 2012 African National Congress (ANC) party congress is
heating up. With so much time to go, and so much work to
accomplish even before the 2011 municipal elections, it seems
premature to be discussing succession so soon. Nevertheless,
the race for the party leadership in 2012 is the subtext for
a number of political actions and statements in recent
months. Political infighting is only going to increase over
the coming months and years. End Summary.

--------------
Succession Race Already on ANC's Mind
--------------


2. (C) The 2012 succession race for the top six positions in
the ANC is already underway barely five months into the new
administration's term. Zuma was elected to the ANC
presidency in December 2007 and is scheduled to serve a five
year term as party leader; he was named national leader when
the party won the election in April. He has said he will
serve only one term, but that has been called into question
by a number of political leaders and allies who want to see
him stay on. A number of recent statements and actions show
that ANC members already are looking to 2012:

-- Congress of South African Trade Unions Secretary General
Zwelinzima Vavi in early July said publicly that Zuma would
serve two full terms as national leader and party leader.
Zuma and the ANC failed to respond to Vavi's comments. ANC
Secretary General Gwede Mantashe told reporters the ANC has
procedures in place for choosing its leader, and those
procedures would be followed in 2012.

-- Deputy Police Minister Fikile Mbalula, who is quietly
seeking the position of ANC Secretary General, last week
threw his weight behind Zuma for another term as national
leader and party leader. Mbalula said, "We share the view
that he (Zuma) should stand a second term as ANC president."
Mbalula's comments came the same week that Free State premier

Ace Magashule said that Zuma should stay on.

-- Newly appointed Housing Minister Tokyo Sexwale's decision
to spend a night in a township showed one of the country's
wealthiest businessmen wants to establish a track record of
being a "common man" ahead of the party congress. Sexwale
spent the night in Diepsloot on August 4 to begin a
"conversation with regular South Africans about the
conditions they face." Leading political commentator Jacob
Dlamini told Poloff last week that Sexwale's decision to
spend a night in Diepsloot was "all about posturing for
2012." He said, "Everyone knows that Sexwale wants to be ANC
leader more than anything in the world. Let's not kid
ourselves about why he spent the night in a township. He
wants to get in touch with the ANC's grassroots supporters
and show the country that he understands poverty as much as
anyone so he can get elected." Dlamini added, "If Zuma fails
to improve the living standards for regular South Africans,
Sexwale can still point out that he addressed the issue early
on."

-- Julius Malema's comments to the Mail and Guardian about
Q-- Julius Malema's comments to the Mail and Guardian about
race relations were a direct "warning shot" to ANC Treasurer
Matthews Phosa about his plans to win the party leadership.
Malema told reporters "the issue of race must be confronted."
He criticized the Zuma government for appointing minorities
to economic positions in the administration and blacks to
security positions. He noted, "When people enter a debate,
they should resist labeling others as African chauvinists or
racists ... It means you are a fake ... There is a small
group of elites in the alliance who present themselves as
working class leaders, while there is very little to show
that in everything they do. They spend most of their time
drinking red wine." Dlamini told Poloff that Malema's
remarks were aimed at Phosa, who is known to harbor
leadership ambitions. He related, "Phosa helped drive a
number of the economic appointments from his position as ANC
Treasurer. He also is known to be extremely close to the
Afrikaans community in the country -- some would say overly
accommodating. Moreover, my ANC sources tell me Phosa likes

PRETORIA 00001760 002.4 OF 002


CLASSIFIED BY: ACTING POLITICAL COUNSELOR OFFICER
Madeline Seidenstricker for Reasons 1.4 b and d

nothing better than sipping red wine when he can." (Note:
Phosa is a published Afrikaans poet and spoke out publicly
about the need for South Africa to keep Afrikaners from
emigrating. End Note.)

-- The imminent arrest of Sandi Majali for bribes paid in a
KwaZulu Natal education contract is a way to undercut Deputy
President Kgalema Motlanthe's party leadership hopes. Majali
was exposed earlier this decade for his questionable oil
deals in Iraq and for funneling oil money to the ANC.
Dlamini noted that Majali's arrest, which most likely would
be followed by a lengthy court trial, would effectively
"finish" Motlanthe as next in line for the presidency. He
said, "This 'Oilgate' scandal is what would destroy
Motlanthe. The ANC could make it go away, but it wants to
compromise the Deputy President sooner rather than later."
(Note: Majali traveled repeatedly to Iraq between 2000 and
2002 accompanied by ANC heavyweights such as Motlanthe to
negotiate oil contracts to benefit the ANC. The contracts
were under the UN's 'Oil-for-Food' program, allowing Iraq to
receive proceeds for humanitarian purposes only. Two weeks
ago, the Sunday Times published a leaked story -- many
suspect members of the ANC leaked the story -- about the
legal investigation into the connections between Majali and
the ANC. End Note.) Dlamini said, "Watch this space. The
possible arrest of Majali is going to hurt Motlanthe and
others in the movement. That is why the story was leaked."


3. (C) Dlamini said the ANC's Youth League seems to be the
early winner in the drive to dictate the succession debate.
He noted, "There really are no other winners. Zuma will have
the power of incumbency, but look what good that did (former
President Thabo) Mbeki." He noted, "What Zuma has in his
favor is that there really is no one else who can unify the
party and the alliance right now. He is it." According to
Dlamini, the early loser in the succession debate appears to
be the ANC Women's League. He said, "They are completely
absent from the discussion. What is most interesting to me
is that the odds of there being a woman leader in the next 10
years seem to be as remote as ever. They really have no one
who can unify them." Overall, he judged it to be too early
to say how statements and actions by ANC members will affect
the succession race.


4. (C) What is clear, however, is that this discussion is
not just a media, or public, creation. ANC National
Chairperson Baleka Mbete last week spoke at a public lecture
about the ANC's first 100 days in office. She said, "A lot
is happening with regards to 2012. However, I want to
emphasize that what is going on is about policy -- not about
personality. Polokwane (the site of the 2007 ANC congress)
was also about policy, not personality." (Note: Her remarks
drew laughter from the audience because most political
analysts agree the two years leading up the 2007 party
congress were all about personality. End Note.) The fact
that even she felt compelled to address the issue of
succession underscores that the issue is real -- and not
going away. She added, "We have to get rid of corrupt
Qgoing away. She added, "We have to get rid of corrupt
officials at the local level if we want to strengthen the
ANC." Many read her remarks to say that the purge of
officials with perceived loyalties to Mbeki or the previous
administration will be selectively replaced.

--------------
Comment
--------------


5. (C) The fact that the succession race for 2012 is already
heating up shows that the ANC is as interested in internal
positioning as it is in running the country. As many
commentators noted in the run-up the 2007 party congress,
politics within the ANC colored every political decision (and
non-decision) and often superseded effective governance.
Talk of succession could distract efforts by the ANC to
implement its domestic agenda unless senior leaders in the
party quickly, and forcefully, stamp out the posturing of
party officials. It would be a politically risky move for
any of the senior leaders to make, but it may be a necessary
one for the good of the country. End Comment.
GIPS