ANC YOUTH LEAGUE DOWNPLAYS CHALLENGES

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 PRETORIA 000176

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/27/2019
TAGS: KJUS PGOV KDEM SF
SUBJECT: ANC YOUTH LEAGUE DOWNPLAYS CHALLENGES

REF: 08 PRETORIA 2255

PRETORIA 00000176 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR RAYMOND L. BROWN. REASONS 1.4 (B) AN
D (D).

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Summary
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1. (S) African National Congress Youth League (ANCYL)
leaders discussed their defense of President Kgalema
Motlanthe against allegations of infidelity, the party's list
process, and the prospects for the Congress of the People
(COPE) in a lengthy discussion with Poloffs on January 26.
ANCYL spokesman Floyd Shivambu and ANCYL National Executive
Committee member Magdalene Moonsamy asserted that they are
publicly defending Motlanthe as strongly as they defended ANC
President Jacob Zuma over the years. (Note: A number of
daily newspapers reported over the weekend that Motlanthe is
having marital troubles and is involved in at least two
extra-marital affairs. Many suspect the stories were leaked
by Zuma's supporters to call into question Motlanthe's
character ahead of the list finalization. End Note.) They
noted that delays in finalizing the ANC's party lists are
because the party is taking pains to maintain a balance of
views at the national and provincial levels. They dismissed
COPE's chances to weaken the ANC's hold on power while noting
that any opposition's attempt to usurp a liberation party is
always "messy." End Summary.

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"We Are Defending Motlanthe"
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2. (S) ANCYL spokesman Floyd Shivambu and ANCYL National
Executive Committee member Magdalene Moonsamy met with
Poloffs on January 26 at the Parktonian in Johannesburg.
Shivambu and Moonsamy, relaxed and sharply dressed, opened
the meeting by discussing the ANCYL's defense of Motlanthe.
The ANCYL has at times been critical of Motlanthe, and Poloff
pointed out that the ANCYL has not been nearly as strong in
defending Motlanthe as it has been in defending Zuma over the
years. Shivambu smiled, laughed, and then replied, "We are
defending Motlanthe. I am getting tired of writing that, 'We
stand behind Motlanthe as the President.'" (Note: The ANCYL
did in fact release a statement this week saying that
Motlanthe should remain the party's number two behind Zuma.
End Note.) He denied that the ANCYL or that Zuma supporters
in the ANC's National Executive Committee were responsible
for leaking the stories suggesting that Motlanthe is having
marital troubles and is engaged in extra-marital affairs with
at least women. He blamed the stories on an "over eager
media." Shivambu said that Motlanthe has always been a
"caretaker leader" and that he would stand down as national
leader after the election.

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"The List Process is Complicated"
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3. (S) Shivambu and Moonsamy attributed the ANC's slowness
in finalizing its party lists to making sure the process is
as collaborative as possible. The ANC last week held
discussions in Johannesburg to determine who would represent
the party in various legislatures around the country.
Moonsamy, who is number one on the ANCYL's National Executive
Committee, said that the party is working hard to make sure
viable leaders are in the best, "most strategic" positions
possible for the election. She said, "It is hard work to
build party lists that include SACP (South African Communist
Party),COSATU (Congress of South African Trade Unions),the
Youth League, and the Women's League. We must make sure
QYouth League, and the Women's League. We must make sure
everyone is happy and well-placed to advance our agenda."
Shivambu and Moonsamy admitted that the ANCYL will not get as
many positions on the lists as it would like, but did not
seem upset at having a smaller number. They said the final
lists should be made public this week and that "final
checking is going on now." Shivambu denied that the ANC is
delaying the process because it is worried about defections
by members unhappy about where they are on a list. Both
leaders conceded that the biggest difficulty facing the ANCYL
and the ANC is working with SACP. Shivambu noted, "It is not
easy, but it happens."

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"COPE Doesn't Matter"

PRETORIA 00000176 002.2 OF 002


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4. (S) Shivambu claimed that COPE was poorly conceived and
would not be a threat to the ANC. He noted that, "the
splinter's biggest problem is that it is a middle class
party." He said that COPE's party manifesto "says nothing
new" and vowed that the ANC would carry on after the
election. He judged that COPE's biggest weakness is its
inability to draw voters from urban townships. Shivambu
related that the ANC would consolidate its gains across the
country and focus on delivery, and warned that any attempt by
an opposition to usurp a liberation party is always "messy"
and has failed to work. (Note: Shivambu did not make the
remark in a threatening or a menacing way, but the
implication was that the ANC could make it hard for COPE to
govern where the opposition won seats. End Note.) Neither
leader made predictions about how well the ANC would do at
the polls or say whether the ANC would hold onto its
two-thirds majority in Parliament.

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Comment
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5. (S) Shivambu and Moonsamy downplayed three of the biggest
challenges facing the ANC at the moment. First, the two
downplayed the tension between the Motlanthe and Zuma camps.
Even though they said that the ANCYL is defending Motlanthe
as well as it has defended Zuma, there are many political
analysts and pundits who suspect the league is responsible
for casting the President in a negative light with the
public. Second, the leaders downplayed the delay in the
national list process. The process is admittedly
complicated, but there are reports from within the ANC and
the NEC that there is tension and mistrust over who is going
to end up on the party's lists and who is not. Nearly
everyone following the process, which ahead of past elections
would have been completed by now, thinks it has been delayed
out of fear of a mass exodus to COPE of those not included in
the list. Last, the two leaders downplayed the likelihood of
COPE success. Nevertheless, the ANC is concerned that COPE
could undermine the ruling party's support in some places.
Saying that COPE does not matter counters many of the ANC's
recent actions. Many political analysts and pundits suspect
the ANC organized a counter rally in Port Elizabeth last
weekend to detract attention from the new party's manifesto
launch, which took place nearby.
BALL