ZUMA'S CABINET IS BRILLIANT POLITICALLY, BUT WILL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 PRETORIA 001129

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/27/2019
TAGS: KDEM ASEC SF PGOV
SUBJECT: ZUMA'S CABINET IS BRILLIANT POLITICALLY, BUT WILL
IT BE EFFECTIVE?

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Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR RAYMOND L. BROWN FOR REASONS 1.4 (B)
AND (D).

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Summary
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1. (C) Newly elected President Jacob Zuma's Cabinet is
settling in following the swearing in ceremony on May 11.
Most political analysts and pundits have praised Zuma's
selections -- lauding some for their managerial skills, some
for their willingness to bring new ideas to government, and
some for their political power within the ruling tripartite
alliance. Although the Cabinet choices reflect a wide range
of experiences and political alignments, it remains to be
seen whether some new ministerial teams -- notably in
education and home affairs -- will be effective in addressing
the country's biggest societal issues. End Summary.

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ANC, Zuma Makes Their Moves
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2. (C) President Zuma announced his Cabinet selections last
month following lengthy consultations with the African
National Congress (ANC). Zuma's discussions with the ANC
over Cabinet composition and size suggest that the new
President is being true to his word that he will rely on as
many players as possible when making decisions. (Note: Some
would argue that he was too true to his word, as Zuma arrived
at the press conference to announce the Cabinet thirty
minutes late. His delay was reportedly because of last
minute infighting within the ANC and the tripartite alliance
-- composed of the ANC, the South African Communist Party
(SACP) and the trade union federation COSATU) -- over Cabinet
choices. End Note.) The ANC and Zuma ensured that the
Cabinet is balanced between those generally seen as populist
and those generally described as pro-business. Moreover, the
party and Zuma made sure to accommodate some officials often
seen as close to former President Thabo Mbeki such as Charles
Nqakula and Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma. However, this cabinet is
very pro-Zuma, made up of some of his closest political
supporters and members of the alliance. The message that
Zuma reportedly sought to send is that there will be general
continuance of macro-policy structures (albeit with some
changes to the ministries' composition) with some changes to
micro-policy formulation and implementation.

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Choices Draw Praise, But Questions Remain
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3. (SBU) Reactions to Zuma's Cabinet selections have been
largely positive. Alec Russell, author of "South Africa
After Mandela," noted that investors would breathe a sigh of
relief and "say it looks like he intends to keep
macro-economic policies on the same track." He stated, "It
says, 'I'm not a scary populist who's going to send policy
sharply to the left.' It says, 'I listen to business and I'm
aware of their concerns.'" Political analyst William Gumede
noted that "he got it right on the economic cluster of
ministries." He further said, "It does say clearly that he
wants to get the economy right. That's where his priorities
are." University of Pretoria political scientist Roland
Henwood noted that the Cabinet selections were generally
outstanding. However, he related that even though Zuma's
choices were brilliant politically, there are serious
questions about how effective the ministers will be at
Qquestions about how effective the ministers will be at
delivery. He quipped, "(Basic Education Minister) Angie
Motshekga and (Correctional Services Minister) Nosiviwe
Mapisa-Nqakula are disastrous at delivering quick results.
Also, I have serious questions about whether (International
Relations Minister) Maite Nkoana-Mashabane is up to the task
of leading a professional foreign policy." There are
questions about how effective Zuma's appointments would be in
addressing social issues. Gumede noted that while the
appointments are impressive in balancing party factions, they
are less impressive in terms of improving delivery. He
stated, "People see the Home Affairs ministry as absolute
incompetence (at home) and abroad as well (sic). It's just a
lax department. Everything from passports to travel
documents, everything needs to be fixed. One would have
expected someone more inspiring (than Nkosazana
Dlamini-Zuma). We didn't get that." (Note: It is

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noteworthy that one of Minister Dlamini-Zuma's first
statements about her new ministry was to clearly admit that
it was riddled with corruption that allowed its travel,
identity and other documents to be produced illegally. End
Note.)

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Cabinet Picks Highlight Key Trends
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4. (C) While some questions remain over whether the new
Cabinet can deliver, Zuma's selections demonstrate a number
of important trends worth watching during the next five
years. Each of the trends below will have implications both
for the 2011 municipal election and the 2012 ruling party
congress:

-- The presidency will be larger, more powerful, and will
have more formal advisers in the President's office than
there were under Mbeki. This will be a key development as
businessmen, diplomats, and statesmen seek to win access to
work with the Zuma government. In addition to Collins
Chabane and Trevor Manuel, Zuma will look to former Minister
of Defense Nqakula on political matters, Mandisi Mpahlwa on
economic affairs, Lindiwe Zulu on international affairs,
Ayanda Dlodlo on affairs related to Parliament, and Bonisiwe
Makhene on legal issues. Under the Mbeki and Motlanthe
administrations, Nqakula served both as Minister of Safety
and Security and Minister of Defense. Mpahlwa served as
Minister of Trade and Industry and Deputy Minister of Finance
in previous administrations. Zulu, a member of the ANC's
National Executive Committee, served as South African
Ambassador to Brazil until December 2008. Dlodlo is also a
member of the ANC's National Executive Committee and is the
Secretary General of the Military Affairs Association; she
has close ties to Lindiwe Sisulu. Makhene is currently
deputy chief state law adviser in the Department of Justice
and Constitutional Development, but will be seconded to the
Presidency later this month. According to informal Zuma
adviser Mo Shaik, the informal advisers were selected as
concessions to "keep them quiet." The only person Shaik
considers close to Zuma is Zulu on international affairs.

-- Not only will there be more formal presidential advisers,
there also will be more ministers. The ANC expanded the
Cabinet from 28 to 34 ministries. This will be an important
trend to watch because it could create a bureaucracy larger
than anything that South Africa has seen since 1994. Some
political commentators, including Roland Henwood, claim that
Zuma has "Africanized the Cabinet." The argument goes that
Zuma increased the size of the Cabinet to accommodate his
allies, but in doing so has created what could be a
potentially unwieldy policy process similar to what has
happened in other African countries.

-- The ANC wants to retain Limpopo Province's loyalty. This
will be a key goal as the ruling party seeks to ward off
opponents in the 2011 election and as the ANC prepares for
its next party congress. Several of the senior players in
Zuma's government hail from Limpopo, which is a strategically
important province that helped sway ANC members to Zuma at
the December 2007 ruling party congress. Limpopo also
promises to be a key battleground province during the 2011
municipal elections. The Congress of the People has
consistently said Limpopo is a province it can win and can
Qconsistently said Limpopo is a province it can win and can
build the local structures necessary to govern at the
municipal level. Cabinet players with connections to Limpopo
include Chabane, Aaron Motsoaledi, Maite Nkoana-Mashabane,
Richard Baloyi, Joe Phaahla, and Rejoice Mabhudafhasi.

-- Zuma, under the auspices of the ANC, wants some KwaZulu
Natal allies kept close. This will be a key trend because
there already are questions over some of Zuma's business
deals in the past, many of which have dogged the President
since the conviction of his former business associate Schabir
Shaik. Zuma's Cabinet includes several leaders that he
forged connections to during his time as a premier in KwaZulu
Natal. The ministerial team includes Ebrahim Patel, Musa
Nhlanhla Nene, Malusi Gigaba, Jeff Radebe, Nathi Mthethwa,
Roy Padayachie, Siyabonga Cwele, Sbusiso Ndebele, and
Noluthando Mayende-Sibiya.

-- The ANC is unafraid, at least for now, of competing
centers of power. This is perhaps the most important trend,

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but the one that may change the most over time. The party
will have ministers with strong personalities in the Cabinet,
such as Minister of Planning in the Presidency Manuel and
Minister of Home Affairs Dlamini-Zuma, along with strong
leaders from Luthuli House such as ANC Secretary General
Gwede Mantashe and ANC Treasurer Matthews Phosa. Although
the ANC seems satisfied with this arrangement, such a dynamic
is likely to be key in setting the stage for succession
battles ahead of the ANC's 2012 ruling party congress. If
power in Luthuli House outweighs power in government (as many
political analysts predict),Mantashe, Phosa, or Baleka Mbete
may hold the inside track over whether Zuma stays on as party
leader or whether a new leader emerges ahead of the next
election. Both the Congress of South African Trade Unions
(COSATU) and the South African Communist Party (SACP) also
seem unafraid of competing centers of power, but perhaps less
satisfied with the arrangement than the ANC. Some of the
most visible leaders from the tripartite alliance (Jeremy
Cronin, Blade Nzimande, and Rob Davies) will be serving in
the Cabinet, but COSATU Secretary General Zwelenzima Vavi has
opted to remain outside the government. Similarly, SACP
plans to hold leadership discussions about whether having
Nzimande in the government will remain viable for the
communist party over the longer term.

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Opportunities for Engagement
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5. (C) The new team offers the United States new
opportunities for continuing and future engagement. New
Health Minister Aaron Motsoaledi wants to continue work
started by Barbara Hogan to address the country's ongoing
battle against HIV/AIDS, according to most political analysts
and leading South African commentators. The new ministry of
Basic Education wants to improve the quality of South African
primary education, and Zuma has said that he wants that body
to establish a "Head Start" program similar to the one in
place in the United States. Even though Motshekga is viewed
as a weak choice for heading the ministry, deputy Enver Surty
and Gauteng Minister in the Executive Committee Barbara
Creecy are capable bureaucrats and have experience working
with international partners to make progress on core policy
goals. Also, the new Ministry of Police intends to address
crime and, specifically, crime prevention ahead of the 2010
World Cup. Beyond these areas, there may be avenues for
greater cooperation in public enterprises, transportation,
and higher education.

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Comment
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6. (C) Zuma and the ANC delivered a Cabinet that addresses
the political balance of power between the party and the
government. Political analysts say that Zuma's team has some
solid managers who can bring new ideas to government while at
the same time keep the tripartite alliance as close as it has
been in years. Despite this optimism, however, there are
serious questions about whether the new team can deliver
better than the old one. In some areas, like Public
Enterprises under Barbara Hogan and Water and Environmental
Affairs under Patience Sonjica, there is reason for hope. In
other areas, however, like Basic Education, Correctional
Services, and Home Affairs, critics already are worried that
QServices, and Home Affairs, critics already are worried that
little will change. Perhaps the single greatest determinant
for how well the Zuma government functions -- and what
happens in 2011, 2012, and beyond -- will be whether the
Cabinet and the ANC can work together without one impeding or
superseding the other.
LA LIME