A/S CARSON DISCUSSES ZIMBABWE WITH TSVANGIRAI AND

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PRETORIA 001005

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT PLEASE PASS TO A/S JOHNNIE CARSON

C O R R E C T E D C O P Y (ADDED PARA MARKINGS)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/15/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL SF
SUBJECT: A/S CARSON DISCUSSES ZIMBABWE WITH TSVANGIRAI AND
MASIYIWA

REF: PRETORIA 995

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Classified By: Political Counselor Raymond L. Brown for Reasons 1.4 (b)
and (d)

1.(C) Summary: On May 10, Assistant Secretary Carson discussed
Zimbabwe with Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai and Zimbabwean
businessman Strive Masiyiwa. Tsvangirai told Carson that the
MDC is "committed to making the transition work" and appealed
for additional USG support to ensure further progress.
Despite positive trends, Tsvangirai said the process is still
uncertain. Strive Masiyiwa was much less optimistic about
the transition's level of progress. He said the ZANU-PF
continues to obstruct and intimidate MDC and civil society
activists and alleged that the MDC Cabinet members have not
all been formally made state officials -- while some have
been cooped by government issued Mercedes Benz limousines and
other perquisites. Masiyiwa said it is unfortunate that
Tsvangirai and Tendai Biti believe that more progress was
being made than the facts justify. End Summary.

2.(C) Assistant Secretary for African Affairs Johnnie Carson
was a member of the Presidential Delegation led by USTR Ron
Kirk for the May 9, 2009 inauguration of ruling African
National Congress President Jacob Zuma as the fourth
post-apartheid president of South Africa. Carson held side
meetings with a range of interlocutors to discuss topical
issues in South Africa and the southern Africa region; i.e.,
Madagascar (reftel) and Zimbabwe. On May 10, he discussed
recent developments in Zimbabwe with Prime Minister Morgan
Tsvangirai of the opposition Movement for Democratic Change
(MDC) and also joined a working dinner with Zimbabwean
businessman Strive Masiyiwa. Carson was accompanied by
Charge d'affaires Helen La Lime and Political Counselor
Raymond L. Brown.

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TRANSITION PROGRESS ACHIEVED BUT OUTCOME STILL UNCERTAIN
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3.(C) Tsvangirai conveyed his views on the transitional
arrangement and his relationship with the ruling ZANU-PF
President Robert Mugabe. This collaboration was designed to
provide a glide path to political stability, economic
recovery and future democratic elections. He stressed that
the MDC is "committed to making the transition work." He said
there is a rising level of confidence in the process and
insisted that the government is making progress. He reported
that the harassment, killings and detention of MDC and civil
society activists have stopped. Based on this apparent
progress, Tsvangirai appealed to Carson for additional USG
support to ensure further progress. He claimed that the
government needs $100 million per month for the next ten
months in order to stabilize the situation, to pay civil
service and security personnel salaries, and to cover
essential government services expenses. In addition,
Tsvangirai said there is a need for balance of payments
support as well as "a large line of credit." Tsvangirai
critically observed that President Mugabe needs to replace or
remove Reserve Bank Governor Gideon Gono and the Attorney
General. He believes that Leonard Tsumba, the former bank
Governor would be acceptable replacement for Gono -- and
QGovernor would be acceptable replacement for Gono -- and
Mugabe is likely to agree. He added that he does not believe
that either Emerson Managawa or Nelson Chinamasa are a threat
to new progress. Despite these largely positive trends,
Tsvangirai said, "the process is still uncertain."

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TSVANGIRAI --MUGABE AND ZANU-PF ARE NOT AS BAD AS ONCE THOUGHT
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4.(C) Strive Masiyiwa, accompanied by Tsvangirai's former
election campaign manager George Sibotshiwe, expressed a much
less optimistic assessment of the transitional unity
government. Masiyiwa told Carson that the ZANU-PF continued
to obstruct and intimidate MDC and civil society activists
and though many of them were released from jail, they were
indicted for terrorism and treason and will be called to
court in the future. Masiyiwa alleged that MDC members of
the transitional Cabinet and Parliament have not all been
formally made state officials, while some have been co-opted
by government-issue Mercedes Benz limousines and other
perquisites. Masiyiwa observed wryly that the

PRETORIA 00001005 002.4 OF 002


"dollarization" of the Zimbabwean economy occurred prior to
MDC Finance Minister Tendai Biti assumed his post, reducing
the mega-inflation immediately to Mugabe's credit. Mugabe
continues to frustrate Tsvangirai's efforts to fulfill his
mandate, leaving the impression among Zimbabweans that
Tsvangirai is weak and ineffectual, Masiyiwa said. He noted
further that during Biti's recent visit to Washington, D.C.
Biti asked the USG to remove sanctions on ZANU-PF officials
and enterprises as well as provide political and financial
support to his economic restructuring plan. According to
Masiyiwa, Biti also made the case that progress was being
made in the transitional government and USG support was
critical if additional progress was to be achieved. Masiyiwa
said it was unfortunate that Tsvangirai and Tendai Biti
believed that more progress was being made than was justified
by the facts, and he dismissed their statements that
President Mugabe was not as bad as they thought he would be.
To Carson's two interlocutors, this statement was evidence of
Tsvangirai's lack of political acumen and his willingness to
take the less than proper treatment meted out to him and his
party by Mugabe's ZANU-PF. Masiyiwa was concerned that
progress to reform the Zimbabwean constitution was stalled
and that President Mugabe wanted the transitional authority
to exist for five years rather than the original MDC demand
for 18 months before new elections were held to resolve the
political impasse.
LA LIME