CAPE VERDE TO HOST ECOWAS GUINEA BISSAU ROUND TABLE; INVITES

C O N F I D E N T I A L PRAIA 000063


ACCRA FOR USAID
DEPARTMENT FOR AF, AF/W
DEPARTMENT PASS TO USAID CONFLICT RESOLUTION OFFICE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 4/2/2019
TAGS: PREL KPKO SNAR PU CV
SUBJECT: CAPE VERDE TO HOST ECOWAS GUINEA BISSAU ROUND TABLE; INVITES
USG PARTICIAPTION

REF: PRAIA 0051

CLASSIFIED BY: Marianne Myles, Ambassador, AMEMBASSY PRAIA,
State.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)



1. (C) Summary. Cape Verde Foreign Minister Jose Brito convoked
Ambassador on 27 March for a briefing on the results of the
meeting of the Foreign Ministers of the Community of Portuguese
Speaking Countries (CPLP) that took place in Praia on Wednesday
25 March. According to Brito, the CPLP countries that are most
interested in helping Guinea Bissau are Angola, Portugal and
Brazil. Brito wants to rally international help to investigate
the recent assassinations, stabilize the country, and assist
with timely progress towards national elections (though he
admitted it was unlikely Guinea Bissau could meet the
constitutionally mandated goal of an election within 60 days).
In pursuit of these goals, and in support of ECOWAS actions to
date, Brito and ECOWAS are calling for an international
conference on the future of security reform in Guinea Bissau, to
take place in Praia, Cape Verde, on 20 April. Secretary of
State Clinton has been invited to participate. End Summary


2. (C) As previewed in reftel, Brito individually addressed the
issues that had been outlined in the ECOWAS communique of March

19. He covered:

a) Impunity: Brito pointed out that the assassinated
Bissau-Guinean Armed Forces Chief of Staff, Tagme Na Waie, was
the third GOGB official to suffer that fate. He therefore
believes it is critical for an international commission to find
out what really happened. The process of national
reconciliation cannot start until this is put to rest, he said.
However, for the inquiry into the assassinations to be useful,
there needs to be protection or no one will speak up. GOGB
Minister of Foreign Affairs Maria Adiatu Djalo Nandingna told
Brito confidentially that she does not feel safe and cannot
speak freely. The Minister of the Army reportedly said
privately that if he says publicly what he knows, then he "will
be a dead man tomorrow," and the Attorney General has made
similar comments.

b) Elections: Guinea Bissau simply has no technical capacity
to hold elections in 60 days, Brito said. The interim president
needs the political agreement of all parties, including civil
society, to decide upon a later date. He saw the only two
options as June/July or November (the intervening months
constituting the rainy season when it would be impossible for
people to get to the polls). (Note: Since this 27 March meeting
with Brito, on 2 April, the Government of Guinea Bissau
announced that the national elections would indeed be pushed
back to 120 days from the original 60, suggesting an election
would be held in late June. End note.) Even with such a delay,
Guinea Bissau will need money to pay the costs of the election;
Brito opined that this is critical so that lack of money cannot
be cited as an excuse for not holding elections in a timely
fashion. Brito noted that there are several candidates who
might be viable; however, Guinea Bissau is now at a crossroads
and needs a president who will be a unifier, not a divider. He
further opined that Guinea Bissau's PAIGC party can determine
the elections -- if the party is united and supports a
candidate, that candidate will win. However, if the party is
divided, then it will not be clear where the power center will
go. Whatever happens, Brito said, there needs to be
impartiality on the part of the government. According to Brito,
last week the Prime Minister said publicly that the interim
president would be a good president and outside
influence/interference in the process is not acceptable.

c) Security of physical institutions: According to Brito,
following the deaths of President Vieira and Chief of Staff
Tagme Na Waie, the military is firmly in control in Guinea
Bissau and no one feels safe. There was not a coup in the
normal sense, but there was in his view a "virtual coup," since
no one is prepared to say or do anything that is contrary to the
wishes of the military. Brito reported that a lawyer was taken
to jail for talking against the new chief of staff. (Comment:
Brito could be referring to former Prime Minister and opposition
party leader Francisco Jose Fadul, who told press on April 2
that he had been assaulted and intimidated by "men in uniform."
End Comment.) President of the ECOWAS Commission, Dr. Mohamed
Ibn Chambas traveled to New York the week of March 31 where he
reportedly will look into the possibility of UN peacekeeping
troops being deployed -- even though there is no visible war
underway in Guinea Bissau.

d) Drugs: It is essential to stop the flow of drugs through
Guinea Bissau, Brito said, as drugs are such a destabilizing
factor. According to Brito, Brazil and Angola are prepared to
send troops if requested by the UN. Brito reported that Angola
is even prepared to send in troops unilaterally, even though
they recognize such a move could be problematic. Since the U.S.
is on the UN Security Council, Brito would like to see the U.S.
agree to the deployment of UN troops to Guinea Bissau.

e) Security reform in Guinea Bissau has been talked about for
several years. Guinea Bissau has asked for help at the ECOWAS
level in the past, but the situation has not changed. The
largest problem in Guinea Bissau, said Brito, is the army. The
troops do not have decent living conditions (for example, they
have neither mattresses nor kitchens in the barracks) and "they
think like freedom fighters -- they will listen to anyone who
promises them a better life." The composition of the army is
badly unbalanced, Brito said: 80% of the army is officers and
only 20% troops. Clearly the armed forces need to be
restructured. (Comment: This echoes the comments of the Cape
Verdean Director General of Defense Pedro Reis, who told DCM
recently that while the CV Armed Forces had professionalized,
reformed to meet the new threats, and submitted to civilian
control, the GB Armed Forces has done none of those things. End
comment.) Brito is also concerned over the lack of control and
hierarchy within the armed forces, noting that 95% of the GBAF
are from the same ethnic tribe, the Balanta, a tribe that he
described as horizontal with no hierarchy. Their society is
composed of several groups, he said, which is not a workable
arrangement in the army context.


3. (SBU) In an invitation dated 31 March and signed jointly by
GOCV Foreign Minister Brito and GOGB Foreign Minister Maria
Adiatu Djalo Nandingna, Brito and Nandingna convey the ECOWAS
Security and Mediation Council's 19 March decision to formally
call for a Round Table of the coordination and implementation of
a program of reform of the defense and security sectors in
Guinea Bissau. The two ministers go on to formally invite the
participation of Secretary of State Clinton at the event,
scheduled for 20 April. (A copy of the invitation and the
ECOWAS-supplied informal translation will be provided to AF/W.)


4. (SBU) In preparation for the April 20 event, ECOWAS has
prepared a concept paper, dated 30 March. In this concept
paper, they make clear their view that "it is imperative to move
quickly form planning to action. It is time to move from
developing action plans and making pledges to implementation,
before the situation deteriorates further... The roundtable is
not a conference to develop yet another strategy document. It
is also not another pledging conference...the roundtable will
have to be used to reach a consensus, develop a road map and
reach and agreement to initiate the daunting task ahead with the
appropriate institutional framework and process for follow-ups,
monitoring, and evaluation. Additionally, the roundtable must
be used to obtain the commitment by all actors to undertaking
the necessary actions." (A copy of the concept paper will be
provided to AF/W.)


MYLES