U/S TAUSCHER'S NOVEMBER 16 VISIT TO PRAGUE: CZECHS

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 04 PRAGUE 000692

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/02/2019
TAGS: MARR MCAP MASS PREL PGOV EZ RS
SUBJECT: U/S TAUSCHER'S NOVEMBER 16 VISIT TO PRAGUE: CZECHS
SEEK MORE INFORMATION ON SEW BEFORE DECISION

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Mary Thompson-Jones, reasons 1.4(b) an
d (d).


1. (C) Summary: During Arms Control and International
Security Under Secretary Ellen Tauscher's November 16
meetings in Prague, Czech officials signaled they wanted more
technical information on shared early warning (SEW) before
making a decision on whether to go ahead. U/S Tauscher said
the U.S could send experts as early as January. Tauscher
emphasized that although the U.S. has changed its missile
defense (MD) architecture, it had not changed its
relationship with the Czech Republic (CR) and wanted the CR
to be in on the ground floor of the new MD phased adaptive
approach (PAA). Czech officials expressed concern about
whether NATO allies would cooperate in the PAA, particularly
regarding burden-sharing. They also emphasized the
importance of moving ahead with joint research and
development, and with developing the civilian side of
bilateral relations. End Summary.

FM Kohout: Ready to Engage
--------------


2. (C) FM Jan Kohout said he understood U/S Tauscher's visit
as a continuation of her September 17 visit laying out the
new PAA architecture and of Vice President Biden's October 23
visit. Tauscher praised the constructive Czech response to
PAA and explained that the U.S. wanted the Czechs in "on the
ground floor."


3. (C) Kohout asked for details on the SEW system. U/S
Tauscher and DAS Frank Rose outlined the basic features of
SEW. The U/S offered to send SEW experts as soon as January
to explain the system in more detail. The U/S told Kohout
"we have changed out architecture but not our relationship;"
the FM said the CR was "ready to engage."


4. (C) U/S Tauscher briefed Kohout on the status of START
follow-on negotiations, CFE and U.S.-Russia relations.
Returning to U.S.-Czech relations, Kohout emphasized the
importance of civilian strategic cooperation in addition to
cooperation on defense. Kohout said the CR hoped for
concrete proposals in this area.

CSSD Chair: Forward Leaning, Perhaps
--------------


5. (C) CSSD Chairman Jiri Paroubek, long accustomed to
hearing from visiting administration officials on MD, was
surprisingly forward-leaning in his conversation with U/S
Tauscher. He acknowledged that "now it appears there is a
concrete threat which changes the situation," and "it seems
like this is a big difference with the new project. It is
based on a real, existing threat, rather than on a virtual
one." He welcomed the idea of a NATO-ized system, saying
that was an important factor for CSSD.


6. (C) However, in a Czech Press Agency interview published
just after his meeting, Paroubek said his party would call
for a debate among experts as well as a public debate on any
future Czech participation in the project. (Comment: This
tendency to dodge difficult issues by deferring to public
opinion polls is precisely why Paroubek withdrew his support
for the previous MD proposal -- public opposition ran 65-70%
against. End Comment.)

DFM Pojar: Sense of Urgency
--------------


7. (S) Tauscher met with Deputy Foreign Minister Tomas Pojar
before the two joined a larger MFA meeting. Pojar, who will
depart his position to become the Czech Ambassador to Israel
in late January, was seized with a sense of urgency. He
complained about the lack of progress on intelligence
sharing, offering two concrete examples.


8. (C) Pojar seemed impassioned about moving forward on PAA.
He pressed for another round of talks soon, saying "we
simply have to get moving." He cited the importance of
showing the public and politicians that the new PAA would be
based on mutual benefits, highlighting research and
development. U/S Tauscher agreed to provide him a schedule
for technical team engagements and way forward on missile
defense research and development cooperation. Pojar pushed
very hard on the issue of a Czech liaison officer permanently
assigned to the Missile Defense Agency (MDA). He insisted
the BMDA agreement already provides for two liaison officers,
one at MDA headquarters and one in Colorado Springs. He said
a Czech presence would offer a combination of political

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symbolism and practical effects. Ambassador Kolar noted he
has a meeting with General O'Reilly on this issue on December

8.


9. (C) Finally, Pojar urged action on issues still pending
after the November 6 High Level Defense Group (HLDG). He
pushed for a faster decision process on an outstanding Czech
request to sell its L-159 plane to the Afghan National Air
Force. He complained the U.S. approach was too rigid and the
decision process too lengthy. He also noted that the Czechs
are ready to throw in the towel on the C-130s. He said the
MOD had told him that it cannot afford the 111 million USD
price tag. This, he said, highlighted the importance of
moving in areas where we can make real progress.

MFA/MoD Meeting: Iran, PAA
--------------


10. (S) After meeting with DFM Pojar, the U/S and her
delegation met with a larger group of MFA and MoD officials,
chaired on the Czech side by Pojar. The Czechs received a
briefing from the U.S. delegation on the status of Iranian
missile development and proliferation activities. The Czechs
asked several question about Iran,s BM-25 missile and DFM
Pojar stated his desire to see Russia admit that the BM-25
was the Russian SS-N-6. DFM Pojar noted that Russia had a
different perception of the threat. U/S Tauscher noted that
the U.S. was working with Russia on a Joint Threat Assessment
that had been announced during the July Summit meetings
between Presidents Obama and Medvedev.


11. (C) Deputy Assistant Secretary for Verification,
Compliance and Implementation Frank Rose briefed on the PAA.
DFM Pojar asked pointedly about whether the Missile Defense
Agency (MDA) budget would be sufficient to support the
planned SM-3 missile development and deployment. Pojar and
MFA Security Policy Department Director Ivan Pocuch also
questioned whether the U.S. could obtain full NATO consensus
to support the PAA and expressed skepticism about prospects
for burden-sharing via NATO common funding.


12. (C) DAS Rose and NSC Defense Strategy, Forces and
Resources Director Kristie Canegallo detailed how MDA funding
would indeed support SM-3 development. EUR/PRA Deputy
Director Kathleen Morenski briefed the Czechs on next steps
on the PAA at NATO. U/S Tauscher said that although there
would be challenges, the U.S. has made a decision to move
ahead with PAA because of its Article 5 commitments and the
need to protect U.S. troops and assets. She noted that other
allies had capabilities that would fit within PAA. DAS Rose
said that the upgrade of NATO's ALTBMD command and control
backbone was achievable and would provide a logical avenue
through which allies could participate in PAA through common
funding. DFM Pojar stated his belief that the U.S. approach
on funding was correct as allies would be reluctant to fund a
territorial defense. He described defense spending by some
NATO allies as "shameful."


13. (C) On bilateral relations, DFM Pojar said research and
development cooperation was "crucial" but claimed that "not
much is moving" in this area. Pojar emphasized the CR is
"not seeking a payoff," but rather, deeper cooperation with
the U.S. He also stated that the Czech Republic would
continue to be supportive of missile defense at NATO.

Russia, CFE, NATO MAP
--------------


14. (C) At a lunch he hosted for a smaller group, DFM Pojar
discussed Russia, calling it "relevant to many issues."
Pojar said he favored clear and firm dialogue with Russia,
without illusions. Pojar said he believed Putin, not
Medvedev, is the real power in Russia. Pojar cited increased
Russian espionage in the CR and other Central and Eastern
European countries. He doubted Russia would again this
winter cut off gas through Ukraine, although he said a short
cutoff might actually be helpful in concentrating EU minds on
energy security. U/S Tauscher told Pojar that the "reset" in
U.S.-Russia relations had yielded cooperation in several
areas, but not across the board.


15. (C) Pojar asked about U.S thinking on CFE. U/S Tauscher
said that most allies did not want to stop data sharing this
year, and the U.S. was still considering how to move forward
and seeking allies' ideas. Pojar predicted no change in
Russian behavior on CFE, but was not certain that halting
data exchange in 2010 was the right solution. Security
Policy Department Director Pocuch said he saw less harm in
continuing to share data compared to "life without CFE." DAS

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Rose said the U.S. was currently reviewing the future of CFE,
and exploring a number of potential options such as adapting
the adapted treaty and increasing confidence building
measures; however, he noted that an adapted treaty would face
Congressional opposition as long as Russia failed to comply
with the existing treaty.


16. (C) Pojar asked about offering NATO MAP to Montenegro;
U/S Tauscher said the U.S. is still reviewing the matter.
Pojar said he favored offering MAP to Montenegro, even though
it would upset Georgia, because it would demonstrate NATO
expansion is not over. U/S Tauscher asked what could be
offered to Ukraine and Georgia. On Ukraine, Pojar suggested
that NATO should wait until after upcoming elections. On
Georgia, he suggested working through existing channels of
cooperation on steps that a MAP would require. Pojar said
the CR would continue to sell Georgia military supplies, but
needed guarantees equipment would not be "stupidly misused"
and particularly noted concerns about the Polish Grom
MANPADS.

PAA and NATO Allies
--------------


17. (C) Czech Ambassador to the U.S. Petr Kolar asked about
other NATO allies' participation in PAA. U/S Tauscher said
there was wide interest, and that the U.S. was talking to the
CR and Poland in the greatest depth due to their willingness
to participate in the previous MD architecture. U/S Tauscher
said that the U.S. would also be talking in depth to
southern-tier European countries, since the U.S. planned PAA
deployments in that region.


18. (C) Pocuch again expressed concern about political
reluctance in NATO to move ahead with PAA. Pojar expressed
concerns about Turkey's political situation as well,
wondering what kind of ally it would be in a decade. U/S
Tauscher said the U.S. will move ahead with PAA to fulfill
Article 5 and to meet the threat. DAS Rose said that NATO
cooperation was achievable; Germany and France had sent
positive signals. Pojar agreed that France "still has
self-preservation instincts."

SEW and Czech Domestic Politics
--------------


19. (C) Charge asked Pojar about the timing of Czech
acceptance of SEW in relation to the Czech domestic politics.
Pojar pointed out that Czech SEW participation would not
require parliamentary approval, but the Czechs needed more
information before deciding on proceeding. On timing, Pojar
said it would be better if the SEW decision did not come
right before parliamentary elections (Note: Currently
scheduled for May 2010. End note).


20. (C) On SEW, Tauscher suggested to Pojar the U.S. could
send experts in January or February, with a possible Czech
decision in March; Pojar called this "possible." Ambassador
Kolar worried SEW could be used politically, pointing out
that Social Democrat Party (CSSD) chair Paroubek (who opposed
Czech participation in the prior MD architecture) had called
for a "public debate" about the Czech role in PAA. Pojar
re-emphasized the importance of getting technical details on
SEW; Kolar suggested Paroubek should also be briefed "to give
him a chance to say yes." Assuming Paroubek's support, Kolar
saw no problem in going forward with SEW under the present
interim government.

Former PM Topolanek Supportive
--------------


21. (C) In his meeting with U/S Tauscher, former PM
Topolanek said he supported the MD radar site in the CR
proposed by the previous U.S. administration in order to
secure a U.S. presence in Central Europe. However, he was
pleased to hear the U.S. had adapted MD to an "immediate
danger" and was working through NATO. He expressed support
for locating "whatever" was needed for PAA in the CR.


22. (C) Topolanek, who had just arrived from an energy
security forum in Budapest, said that Russian foreign policy
no longer revolved around "bombs and tanks, but around gas,
oil and rubles." He expressed concern about Russian
influence in the Czech energy sector and asked for U.S. help.


23. (C) Topolanek also discussed the upcoming party congress
of his Civic Democrat Party (ODS),expressing concern that it
could result in his losing his position as ODS chair.


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24. (U) U/S Tauscher has cleared this message.
Thompson-Jones