TOPOLANEK SURVIVES ODS CONGRESS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 PRAGUE 000687

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/23/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL EZ
SUBJECT: TOPOLANEK SURVIVES ODS CONGRESS

Classified By: CDA Mary Thompson-Jones for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary. Despite calls from some party leaders for
the center-right Civic Democrat Party (ODS) platform congress
to also include a vote on Mirek Topolanek's (age 53)
leadership of the party, Topolanek was able to vanquish his
detractors (for now) and retain the party chairmanship.
There were also calls to have an election congress early next
year, but this too will not happen. Although Topolanek
retained his leadership of the party, the ODS delegates
rejected his proposed party platform, called Vision 2020,
citing its hasty production and limited input from party
members. Topolanek may still be ODS's leader, but the
general consensus is that he is weak. Topolanek said that he
will step down if ODS loses the May 2010 parliamentary
elections. This is precisely what many party leaders are
expecting and maybe secretly hoping for. A photo on the
front page of a leading daily newspaper showed one of ODS's
regional party bosses with a fistful of 1,000 CZK notes
lavishing wine on the party faithful. This says much about
ODS's problem - no clear vision or platform for the voters to
believe in, and a perception that ODS politicians are acting
for personal profit. End Summary.

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An Election Versus Platform Congress
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2. (SBU) The Civic Democrats (ODS) held their party
congress on November 21 - 22 in Prague at the same location
as last year's. While the venue was the same, the mood was
not. Last year, Mirek Topolanek (age 53) defeated Pavel Bem
(284 to 162 votes) to retain the Chairmanship of the ODS
party. His victory spurred President Vaclav Klaus to leave
the ODS party.


3. (SBU) This year's congress was to be strictly about the
party's platform. However, party leaders have grown
increasingly impatient over Topolanek's leadership of the
party and the direction he is leading it. Several leaders
called for a vote of confidence on Topolanek via a secret
ballot. Petr Gandalovic, an ODS founding member and Vice
Chairman of the party, one of Topolanek's staunchest critics,
was poised to run for the party leadership. Miroslava
Nemcova (a Member of Parliament) and Pavel Bem (the Lord
Mayor of Prague) also publicly advocated a vote of confidence
and sought to vie for the party's leadership. The party
members voted on this proposal at the beginning of the
conference, and the proposal was defeated by a vote of 243
against and 189 for. However, this was not a secret ballot,
and that may well have affected the voting.


4. (C) At any point of the conference, the delegates could
have put forth a proposal to have another election congress
to elect new leaders. Topolanek has said publicly that he
would consider such a congress a vote of no-confidence in him
and that he would resign if such a congress were to be
scheduled. The ODS International Secretary told poloff that
if such a vote were to happen, it would most likely happen at
the end of the congress when many delegates loyal to
Topolanek would have already left. The congress ended and
the vote on an election congress never happened. It now
appears that Topolanek will lead the party into the
parliamentary elections in May 2010.

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The Vision Thing
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5. (SBU) Topolanek presented his proposed party platform
for the next ten years - Vision 2020. The party delegates
rejected the plan, however, because it was hastily prepared
and the authors of the plan were strictly from Topolanek's
inner circle. Delegates felt broader inclusion in the
preparation of the plan was necessary. Gandalovic was the
most openly critical of Topolanek during the congress, citing
poor preparation of the Vision 2020 document as an example of
Topolanek's poor leadership, as well as Topolanek's poor
communication with party members. The party decided to have
an "ideological" conference early next year to decide on the
platform and vision for the party.

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Voices Heard
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6. (SBU) As with any congress, speeches prevailed. What
differentiated the ODS congress was the level of
dissatisfaction with the party. Clearly Petr Gandalovic and
Miroslava Nemcova (both spoke) are dissatisfied with
leadership of the party and would have preferred a vote. But
other prominent voices also echoed this sentiment, and some
were not even members of the party. Petr Bendl, Ivan Langer

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and Petr Necas (all Vice Chairmen of the party) spoke of the
"bad atmosphere" in the party, but stressed the need to
prepare for the elections.


7. (C) President Vaclav Klaus, who founded ODS in 1991 and
left the party in December 2008 because of his dislike of
Topolanek, sent a letter (read, ironically enough, by
Topolanek) stating that ODS should be seeking members who are
public service oriented and not using politics to fulfill
"their private interests." Klaus also noted that ODS could
lose voters to extremist parties if they do not offer
practical solutions to current problems, as these voters
would be susceptible to the "easy, radical and undemocratic
solutions" offered by extremist parties.


8. (C) Karel Schwarzenberg, the TOP 09 party leader, also
addressed the congress and talked about previous cooperation
among the centrist parties (Christian Democrats and the
Greens). Schwarzenberg said that "this combination is
possible and beneficial in the future as well." But
Schwarzenberg went on to warn ODS to "stop internal
quarreling" and "acting for personal profit." Even though
ODS's internal problems favor his party TOP 09, Schwarzenberg
explained that a "strong democratic right-of-center party is
needed for the country's democratic development."

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Topolanek: Win or Resign
--------------


9. (C) Topolanek told delegate members that changing
leadership ahead of the May 2010 parliamentary elections
would be "a road to hell" (the same words he used to describe
President Obama's economic policies -- just before the
President visited Prague in April). Topolanek argued this
would "pave the way" to power for Jiri Paroubek and the
Social Democrats (CSSD) as well as the rival right-wing party
TOP 09. Party delegates, perhaps begrudgingly, accepted this
assessment and agreed that it was too risky to change
leadership before the parliamentary elections next year.
Topolanek also said that if ODS does not win the
parliamentary elections in May 2010, he will resign the party
chairmanship. It is certain that the party members will hold
him to his pledge.


10. (C) But who would succeed Topolanek? While Gandalovic,
Nemcova and Bem all would like to head the party, few believe
that any of them have the star power necessary to lead. The
party seems to lack anyone who could step in and fill
Topolanek's void. Bendl, Langer and Necas could also step up
as Chairman, but they too lack the "stuff" that made
Topolanek, when at his best, a popular and effective leader.

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ODS Needs New Image, Clear Message
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11. (C) Comment: One thing always said about Mirek
Topolanek is that he loves a fight. He is in a big one now.
Before this congress, Topolanek said that he would consider
approval of his Vision 2020 program a vote of confidence.
Even after his "Vision" was not approved and he was
bludgeoned with heavy criticism, he later said he considered
the congress a "confirmation of his mandate." This was an
optimistic assessment, but probably the best Topolanek could
hope for after a string of setbacks: the collapse of his
government in March; his rash resignation from the Chamber of
Deputies following the scuttling of November's early
elections; and this past summer's scandals involving him and
business leaders and lobbyists. Topolanek is tough, scrappy
and charismatic, but now he is weak, vulnerable and erratic.
He will undoubtedly lead the party to the parliamentary
elections in May 2010, but the polls consistently put ODS
second behind CSSD and most analysts believe that CSSD will
come out slightly ahead. Insiders at the congress said that
party members are happy to let Topolanek lose in May, and are
probably secretly wanting it, as this will ensure his rapid
departure.


12. (C) However, it still does not solve the party's
fundamental problems: lack of clear vision and strong
leaders. If ODS wants to win in May, it will need about 35
percent of the vote. To accomplish this, it will need to
attract more centrist voters. Without a better message --
more of "what the government can do for you", as opposed to
"cut taxes and be afraid of Russia" -- ODS will not attract
the voters it needs in order to win in May. Moreover, there
seems to be no viable candidate, and ODS is widely perceived
as promoting corrupt, self-enriching politicians. The cover
story of a leading daily newspaper included a photo of an ODS
party "godfather" with a fistful of 1,000 CZK notes
(equivalent to USD 50s) lavishing expensive wine on and
shoring up support from party loyalists only serve to cement

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an image that ODS can not afford to have. End Comment.
Thompson-Jones