Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09PRAGUE677
2009-11-19 13:02:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Prague
Cable title:  

20 YEARS AFTER THE VELVET REVOLUTION: POLITICS NOT

Tags:  PGOV PREL EZ 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO2637
RR RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHNP RUEHROV RUEHSL RUEHSR
DE RUEHPG #0677/01 3231302
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 191302Z NOV 09
FM AMEMBASSY PRAGUE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 1930
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 PRAGUE 000677 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/12/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL EZ
SUBJECT: 20 YEARS AFTER THE VELVET REVOLUTION: POLITICS NOT
SO PLUSH

Classified By: CDA Mary Thompson-Jones for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 PRAGUE 000677

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/12/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL EZ
SUBJECT: 20 YEARS AFTER THE VELVET REVOLUTION: POLITICS NOT
SO PLUSH

Classified By: CDA Mary Thompson-Jones for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: On the evening of November 17, 1989, an
officially sanctioned student commemoration on the fiftieth
anniversary of Jan Opletal's burial (he was killed by the
Nazis during a student demonstration in 1939),sparked a
violent confrontation with the Czechoslovak state security
service. From this confrontation, a non-violent revolution
over the next six weeks led to Vaclav Havel being sworn in as
President of Czechoslovakia on December 29. Since then, the
Czech Republic has been transformed into a stable (if
sometimes raucous) democracy and a vibrant market economy.
However, the transformation is incomplete: Czech politics
are frequently petty, driven by personal feuds, opportunism
and populism; the economy is challenged by corruption. Most
Czech are satisfied with the quality of life but cynical
about domestic politics. Restoring faith will require rising
above petty politics, and tackling corruption and lack of
transparency. End Summary.

--------------
Background: The Velvet Revolution
--------------


2. (SBU) On November 17, 1989, tens of thousands of
students took to the streets in an officially-sanctioned
student march commemorating the death of Jan Opletal.
Opletal was a student killed by the Nazis during a student
uprising on October 28, 1939. There was a second, larger
student demonstration on November 17, the day Opletal was
buried, that resulted in the Nazis executing nine, shipping
1,200 off to concentration camps and closing all Czech
colleges and universities. In commemoration of Opletal's
death and the uprising, the International Students' Council
in London declared November 17 International Students' Day.


3. (SBU) On November 18, 1989, Embassy Prague reported via
front channel on the previous day's "Brutal Suppression of
Czech Students," calling the student demonstration the
"largest anti-regime demonstration in 20 years." The
students marched through Central Prague calling for "freedom,
an end to communist rule and the ouster of the present
communist leadership." The Embassy commented that the
regime's brutal crackdown could "produce the sort of
divisions so far largely muted in the CPCZ (Communist Party

of Czechoslovakia) and will undercut what little popular
legitimacy the regime has had as well as its longevity." How
right we were. Over the next several weeks, hundreds of
thousands of people demonstrated against the regime in the
street, jingling keys above their heads and calling on Milos
Jakes to step down. Forty-two days later, Vaclav Havel was
sworn in as the President of the newly democratic
Czechoslovakia.


4. (SBU) In a November 21 reporting cable ("Overheard
Conversations"),an Embassy employee reported that she saw a
young student on the metro wearing a U.S./Czech flag lapel
pin (the kind we give away in baskets at July 4th parties)
and that someone offered him 50 USD for it. The offer was
refused. Such was the euphoria and hope for change. (Note:
the term "Velvet Revolution" was not initially a Czech
moniker for these events. The events were given this name by
the international press and only later was picked up by
Czechs as an appropriate descriptor. End Note.)

--------------
The Civic Forum
--------------


5. (SBU) The Civic Forum (Obcanske Forum in the Czech
language) was organized immediately after the November 17
events to bring together the disparate groups of dissidents
under a common organizational umbrella. It quickly assumed
the leading political role in the civic uprising. The Civic
Forum called for negotiations with the government of Milos
Jakes as the "beginning of a universal discussion on the
future of Czechoslovakia" and made four initial demands: that
those in power responsible for the 1968 Prague Spring,
immediately step down; that those involved in the brutal
suppression of the November 17 and subsequent marches,
immediately step down; that a committee be established to
investigate the brutal suppression and that Civic Forum be on
this committee; and that all detainees of the peaceful
demonstrations be immediately released.


6. (SBU) In June 1990, free elections were held, with
almost 97 percent of the eligible voters participating,
pitting advocates of democracy against unrepentant believers
in Communism. Four parties exceeded the minimum 5 percent
threshold to make it into the Czech National Council
(precursor to the Parliament): the Civic Forum (OF) received
49.5 percent of the vote (124 seats); the Communist Party of

PRAGUE 00000677 002 OF 004


Czechoslovakia (KSC) won 13.2 percent (33 seats); the
Movement for Self-Government Democracy/Union for
Moravia/Silesia (HSD-SMS) won 10 percent of the vote (23
seats); and the Christian Democrats (KDU) won 8.4 percent (20
seats). The Civic Forum had a strong majority (having far
exceeded the 100 votes necessary to rule the 200-seat
National Council) and ruled as the governing coalition until
1992, even though the party itself dissolved in 1991. Of
these initial four parties, only two remain: the Christian
Democrats and the Communists, having proven themselves as
stable political parties with a steady electorate.


7. (SBU) The 1992 elections brought eight parties into the
parliament, the largest in the country's history. Since
then, the number of parties in parliament has dropped to
five. The Czech political system crystallized during the
1990s with two dominant parties emerging: the right-of-center
Civic Democrats (ODS) and the left-of-center Social Democrats
(CSSD). The extreme left, unreformed Communist Party (KSCM)
has stubbornly defied predictions of its demise, consistently
polling between eleven and fifteen percent, due to
disciplined party voter behavior and its role as the last
resort for center-left protest voters dissatisfied with CSSD.
However, the KSCM represents a dead block of votes in
parliament, since it is still seen as taboo to enter into a
national coalition with the Communists, although the CSSD has
done so regionally in certain locations. The Christian
Democrats have traditionally played the role of kingmaker
because, as a centrist party, they have had no problem
partnering with either ODS or CSSD. TOP 09 is the Czech
Republic's newest party and was formed this year as a
right-of-center alternative to ODS. It polls up to 15
percent support, despite having no platform nor any
articulated goals. Its popularity is due entirely to the
high public regard for its leader, Karel Schwarzenberg.
These five parties are all expected to make it into
parliament in the 2010 elections. The Green Party, which is
currently in parliament, is not expected to cross the 5
percent threshold next year needed to win seats in the
parliament.

-------------- --------------
Economic Transformation, Challenged By Corruption
-------------- --------------


8. (SBU) Over the past 20 years, the Czech Republic has
transformed itself, with the help of significant inflows of
foreign direct investment, into a vibrant export-oriented
market economy, with a strong manufacturing base, relatively
low unemployment, and a stable financial system. Per capita
GDP in 2008 reached USD 20,858, 80 percent of the EU average.
While pre-1989, Czech trade was oriented almost exclusively
to the Soviet bloc and the East, the Czech economy is now
strongly focused toward the EU and the West. Over 80 percent
of Czech exports go to fellow EU countries with over 30
percent of total exports going to Germany alone.


9. (SBU) The transformation has not been without problems.
Abuses during the privatization process and wide spread
"tunneling" of state and foreign-owned businesses in the
1990s, where management conspired to transfer profitable
parts of the company to their own private holdings, has left
much of the population very skeptical of the new generation
of businessmen and the government-business relationship. A
significant financial crisis in the late 1990s cost the state
nearly 20-30 percent of GDP to clean up and resulted in the
privatization and foreign ownership of all major banks.


10. (SBU) Nevertheless, the Czech Republic was the first
post-Communist country to receive an investment grade rating
by international rating organizations and was one of only
four OECD countries not to have had to recapitalize its banks
during the recent global financial crisis. While the Czech
economic transformation has so far been a great success
story, the economy still faces several long-term challenges.
These include corruption, especially in government
procurement, dealing with a rapidly-aging population, an
unsustainable pension and health care system, and
diversifying the economy away from an over-reliance on
manufacturing (especially the auto sector) toward a more
high-tech, services-based economy.

--------------
Czech Democracy Shows Its Youth
--------------


11. (SBU) Czech politics showed their youth in 2009. After
Topolanek's ODS-led government lost the vote of no-confidence
on March 24, Czech President Vaclav Klaus appointed the
interim government of Jan Fischer on May 8 and scheduled
early parliamentary elections for October 8 and 9. However,
in dissolving itself, parliament ignored the

PRAGUE 00000677 003 OF 004


constitutionally-mandated procedures and instead passed a
short-cut ad hoc law -- a mistake that would come back to
haunt it.


12. (SBU) A Constitutional Court decision nullified the
early elections in September. The decision was a small
victory for rule of law. Although many politicians and
President Klaus grumbled (some even arguing that the
Constitutional Court had overstepped its bounds by daring to
dabble in the Constitution),they adhered to the decision.
The dominant parties then passed a constitutional amendment
that would allow for early elections on November 7 and 8.


13. (SBU) However, a surprise reversal by Social Democrat
chair Jiri Paroubek scuttled the November elections. While
Paroubek stated that the reason for his change of heart was
uncertainty whether the political solution was
constitutional, political analysts unanimously agreed it was
sheer political self-interest that drove the decision:
Paroubek was not convinced he would win. Elections are now
set for May.

--------------
Domestic Politics: Not So Plush
--------------


14. (C) The events of 2009 showed that while the Czech
Republic has evolved into a stable democracy, the domestic
political scene is often driven by petty politics: personal
feuds, opportunism and populism. The heads of the two major
parties, ODS Chair Mirek Topolanek and CSSD Chair Jiri
Paroubek, are bitter rivals -- and neither gets along with
President Klaus. When Topolanek became ODS Chair in 2002,
for example, Klaus sent a (now famous) instant text message
calling Topolanek "fake and vacuous." Klaus left ODS in
December 2008 after Topolanek retained the ODS chairmanship,
citing ideological reasons, but it was obvious that personal
animosity with Topolanek was the main motivation. And
Klaus's staunch anti-communism did not prevent him from
cutting a deal with the KSCM in 2008 to help him get
re-elected President.


15. (C) Paroubek is also a polarizing figure. His devout
populism and arrogant rhetoric caused his detractors,
literally, to hurl eggs at him during EU parliament campaign
rallies in May 2009. And Paroubek epitomizes opportunism at
its worst. As PM in 2005-2006, he supported establishment of
a U.S. missile defense radar site in the Czech Republic, only
to switch when he moved into opposition and saw an
opportunity for gain based on public opposition to the site.
In late 2008, Paroubek held up parliamentary approval of
overseas troop deployments, including to Afghanistan, in
order to gain concessions on a hot-button domestic health
care issue.

--------------
The Troublemakers of the EU
--------------


16. (C) Five years after joining the EU, the Czech Republic
assumed the six-month rotating Presidency on January 1, 2009.
At the beginning of their Presidency, the Czechs got high
marks for their handling of the Russia-Ukraine gas crisis.
Then, three months into the Presidency, the government
collapsed after losing a no-confidence vote engineered by the
opposition CSSD and, many people believe, by President Klaus.
Again, the reason was petty political gain. The
opportunistic CSSD opposition worried that the governing
coalition was benefiting from increased public stature due to
its able handling of the EU presidency; President Klaus
sought to bring down the government of his own erstwhile
party due to his personal vendetta against then-PM Topolanek.


17. (SBU) Aside from the collective national embarrassment,
serious questions arose about the Czech Republic's ability to
effectively finish the EU Presidency. The interim government
of Prime Minister Fischer stepped in and did an admirable
job. However, then President Vaclav Klaus refused to sign
the Lisbon Treaty and stood as the last obstacle to its
implementation. While both issues worked themselves out,
they again demonstrated the relative immaturity of Czech
democracy and the premium put on personal benefit over
national interest. They also tarnished the Czech Republic's
image in the EU.

--------------
Communism's Legacy
--------------


18. (C) In addition to political pettiness, corruption and
lack of transparency have also undermined faith in the
political system. (Note: Transparency International ranks

PRAGUE 00000677 004 OF 004


the Czech Republic as 52nd out of 180 countries for the
perceived level of corruption - worse than last year's 45th.
The U.S. ranks 19th. End Note). Polls consistently show that
Czechs are dissatisfied with the state of politics. One from
September (even before the scuttled elections fiasco) showed
that only 1.8 percent of Czechs believe their politicians.
There is widespread belief that politicians work for
lobbyists and that large business concerns control the
political process. Images from July 2009 of former PM
Topolanek in a Tuscan villa and then on a yacht with the
Martin Roman, Head of CEZ (the quasi state energy concern and
richest firm in the country),and other businessmen and
lobbyists only feed Czech political cynicism.


19. (C) Vaclav Havel and others blame this on the legacy of
forty years of Communism, when control of state institutions
was the path to material well-being. They often cite the
communist-era aphorism that "whoever does not steal from the
state steals from his family." Respected pollster Jan Hartl
recently pointed out to poloffs that despite popular disgust
with corruption and other systemic defects, Czech voters fail
to punish parties at the polls because, he believes, Czechs
take it for granted that this is the natural state of affairs.


20. (SBU) As the euphoria over democracy inspired by the
Velvet Revolution has worn off, participation in democracy
has hit a plateau. In the 1990 parliamentary elections,
there was 96.8% participation by eligible voters. By 2002,
this had fallen to 58%. This increased slightly during the
2006 parliamentary elections - bumping up to 64% - and Czech
participation in the electoral process is now at levels seen
in older western democracies.

--------------
Content with Life, Disappointed with Politics
--------------


21. (SBU) Comment: Pew Research conducted a poll in eight
East and Central European counties asking if people felt life
was better or worse now than under Communism. Of the eight
countries, only two said life was better - the Czechs and the
Poles. Not quite half (45%) of Czechs said life was better,
while 39% said it was worse. This was in stark contrast to
their kindred Slovakia, where only 29% life was better and
48% said life was worse. While Czechs appear content with
democracy, quality of life and availability of consumer goods
since the Velvet Revolution, politics appears to be one place
with much room for improvement.


22. (C) In a speech given to the European Parliament, Vaclav
Havel noted that, "A democratic culture cannot be created or
renewed overnight." A generation has passed since the Czechs
took back democracy from authoritarian rule, but democracy
and free markets have not yet yielded the more moral Czech
public Havel has repeatedly called for. There are reasons
for hope: in addition to being disgusted with petty politics
and corruption, Czechs admire politicians they perceive as
idealistic and honest, such as ex-FM Karel Schwarzenberg.
The Czech public must now learn that the path to political
ideals lies not in changing human nature, but in changing
concrete rules and practices to again bring out their better
angels, which twenty years ago peacefully overthrew tyranny.
End Comment.
Thompson-Jones