UNREFORMED COMMUNISTS COURT SOCIAL DEMOCRATS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 PRAGUE 000503

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/28/2019
TAGS: PGOV EZ
SUBJECT: UNREFORMED COMMUNISTS COURT SOCIAL DEMOCRATS

REF: A. PRAGUE 313

B. PRAGUE 453

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Mary Thompson-Jones for reasons 1.4 (b
) and (d).


1. (C) Summary. Despite declining membership, the unreformed
Communist Party of Bohemia and Moravia (KSCM) has a stable
and loyal voter base that consistently garners 12 to 15
percent of the vote and makes them the Czech Republic's third
largest party. KSCM currently has 26 seats in the Chamber of
Deputies (the lower house) and current polls indicate they
will get between 24 and 29 seats in the early parliamentary
elections on October 9 - 10. The party's platform is laden
with social spending, calls for halting Czech troop
deployments overseas and calls for no American military
presence in the Czech Republic. KSCM Chairman Vojtech Filip
made public overtures to the center-left Social Democrats
(CSSD) about a possible post-election coalition, but Jiri
Paroubek, CSSD's Chairman, has stated publicly that a
coalition with the Communists (silent or otherwise) is
"impossible at this time." KSCM has never been able to
participate in a formal government coalition because it is a
political pariah, although the Social Democrats (CSSD) have
worked with KSCM in the past on certain pieces of legislation
important to left wing parties and have coalitions with KSCM
on a regional level. If CSSD and its main rival, the
center-right Civic Democrats (ODS) finish close as is
expected, then a grand coalition becomes a more viable
option, but Paroubek may have Presidential aspirations and he
has always been willing to renege on a promise. End Summary.

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Party of Pensioners
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2. (SBU) The current unreformed Communist Party (KSCM) is a
direct successor of the previous communist party (KSCM) that
ruled the Czech Republic from 1948 to 1989. The KSCM never
"reformed" after the Velvet Revolution even though Vaclav
Havel's tolerant approach to politics included accommodating
the KSCM. In some other Central European countries,
including Hungary and Poland, Communists transformed and
reemerged in a social democratic guise after 1989. This did
not happen to Czech Communists. This was partially due to
the fact that the purge of reform-minded Communist Party
members after the 1968 Prague Spring left the party without a
reformist element, and partially due to the Czech Communist
Party's deep and strong historical roots, even prior to World
War II. The party's failure to reform helped pave the way
for the emergence of today's center-left CSSD.


3. (SBU) KSCM has a very loyal and stable voter base that
consistently keeps them in parliament and makes them the
third largest party in the country. In 2002, for example,
despite a voter turnout of only 58%, KSCM had its best result
ever: 18.5 percent of the vote. Currently they have 26
seats in the 200-seat Chamber of Deputies (12.8 percent of
the vote). Polls consistently give them between 12 and 15
percent of the vote, which would translate into between 24
and 29 seats in the lower house. Their voter base, however,
is aging and declining. In a survey conducted by the
Institute of Sociology of the Czech Academy of Sciences and
the University of Virginia for a report released in January
2009, 71 percent of KSCM's supporters were aged 58 or older.


4. (SBU) The average age of a KSCM member is 69 and
approximately 70% of KSCM's members are at least 70 years
old. Roughly two-thirds of the party's members have been
members for more than 40 years. Membership has been steadily
declining since 1989. In 2004, KSCM had approximately
100,000 members. Last year, that number had decreased to
75,000. Some analysts say that it is just a matter of time
before the party base dies off. According to the analysis of
Lukas Linek of the Czech Academy of Sciences, KSCM will not
fall below the 5 percent parliamentary threshold for at least
15 more years.


5. (SBU) Yet despite the decline of official members, the
KSCM consistently polls between 12 to 15 percent, defying
predictions of its impending demise. Many analysts attribute
this to support from voters who are to the left of CSSD on
the political spectrum, and from less leftist voters who are
otherwise disillusioned with CSSD and Paroubek.

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A Party Platform with No Surprises
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6. (SBU) KSCM's party platform is no surprise, focusing on
state intervention in the economy, nationalized industries
and opposition to further privatization, and opposition to
the U.S. and NATO. Some of the prominent planks are:

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- increasing the minimum labor wage to 14,000 CZK/month
(about 750 USD);
- increasing the minimum state pension of 10,000 CZK/month
(about 550 USD);
- eliminating all health care fees;
- stopping all university fees at state universities,
achievement stipends of 5,000 CZK/month (about 275 USD);
- maternity leave for 3 years with a 14,000 CZK/month (about
750 USD) payment;
- stopping privatization of the state pension fund, as well
as health and prison services;
- halting privatization of the quasi-state electric company
(CEZ),airport, railway, post office, etc;
- stopping foreign deployments of the Czech military; and
- preventing any American military presence on Czech soil.


7. (SBU) When CSSD released its election platform, its main
rival, the center-right ODS, immediately stamped it with a
sickle and hammer, claiming strong similarities between the
KSCM's and CSSD's platforms. Both parties have, indeed,
called for increased minimum wages and monthly pensions. The
CSSD has called for the elimination of some health fees but
not all. And while the CSSD still support foreign troop
deployments, they too are opposed to American troops on Czech
soil.

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KSCM's Attempted Rapprochement with CSSD
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8. (C) KSCM Chairman Vojtech Filip has taken a somewhat
pragmatic approach to cooperation with CSSD. The two parties
have worked on legislation in the past (for example, a bill
on sick benefits, a law reforming social benefits) and will
probably continue to have ad hoc cooperation in order to push
through some of CSSD's legislative proposals. Genuine
rapprochement will continue to elude KSCM because the
conservatives within KSCM want to preserve the anti-reformist
status quo within the party. According to Vladimir Handl of
the Institute for International Relations, a Czech think
tank, rapprochement with CSSD and the entrenched attitude of
the hard-liners are "divisive issues" within KSCM.


9. (SBU) Evidence of Filip's pragmatic approach can be seen
in his recent overtures to CSSD. On July 28, Filip offered
to apologize again for the Communist Party's past, if this
would open the door to a coalition with CSSD. He said that
KSCM is willing to repeat its December 20, 1989 apology in
which it referenced the 1968 Prague Spring uprising and the
injustices to the Charter 77 signatories. The party was also
willing to acknowledge the inviolability of ownership rights
as well as membership in the European Union. Filip was aloof
about whether the party would acknowledge the inviolability
of the Czech Republic's membership in NATO, but no one
realistically believes he would. All these were
preconditions laid out by CSSD leader Paroubek for formal
collaboration with the Communists at the national level.


10. (C) Even though Paroubek hinted previously that a
"silent" coalition with KSCM could be possible, he later
stated publicly that a coalition with the Communists is
"impossible at this time." At the time of Filip's offer,
CSSD Vice Chairman Zdenek Skromach insisted that the Bohumin
Resolution not be rescinded. (Comment: The Bohumin
Resolution, signed at the CSSD Party Congress in Bohumin,
North Moravia in 1995, banned cooperation with the Communists
at the national level. End Comment) Coalition with the
Communists is still considered unacceptable by many in CSSD
because of the KSCM's continuation of cold-war anti-Western
rhetoric, its class-struggle ideology, the party's past
history and role -- and its name. Political analyst
Vladimira Dvorakova believes that KSCM's overture provided an
opportunity to CSSD for "Mitterandization" of the Communist
party, referring to French President Mitterand's tactical
move in 1981 to integrate the Communists of France into the
socialist government, eventually eliminating the radical left
competitor.

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Comment - The Road to the Castle Could be Red
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11. (C) The November 20th anniversary of the Velvet
Revolution will rekindle memories and emotions that the
Communist Party will want to avoid. (Note: KSCM Chairman
Filip criticized Czech public television for airing the 1950
show trial and subsequent trip to the gallows of Milada
Horakova a few days before the European Parliament elections.
The Horakova trial was one of the most notorious of the
communist-era Czechoslovakia, and Filip complained because he
said it would influence voters right before the EP elections.
End Note) Despite their apology, many Czechs warily view

PRAGUE 00000503 003 OF 003


KSCM as only half reformed at best; many other Czechs
completely reject the party. While the KSCM's success in the
October 2008 regional elections allowed them to serve in a
formal coalition with CSSD in two regions, a national
coalition in parliament is a different story. More than
likely, KSCM's cooperation with CSSD on the national level
will remain issue-oriented, ad hoc and definitely low key.
Polls indicate that the election will result in a close
finish between the two large parties - CSSD and the ODS -
with two other small parties (the Christian Democrats and the
new TOP 09 party) also making it into parliament. This
result would increase the chance for a grand coalition
between CSSD and ODS. Paroubek has publicly disavowed a
coalition with the KSCM for fear of voter backlash. However,
as Jan Hamacek of CSSD told Emboff, Paroubek's ultimate goal
is the Presidency, and even center-right President Klaus
cozied up to the KSCM to gain their support for his
Presidential bid and move to Prague Castle. Such a move
would be much less of a stretch for the CSSD's opportunistic
Jiri Paroubek. End Comment.

Thompson-Jones