TOP 09: THE CZECH REPUBLIC'S NEWEST POLITICAL PARTY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 PRAGUE 000453

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/09/2019
TAGS: PGOV EZ
SUBJECT: TOP 09: THE CZECH REPUBLIC'S NEWEST POLITICAL PARTY

REF: A. PRAGUE 313

B. PRAGUE DAILY JULY 30

Classified By: CDA Mary Thompson-Jones, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: Former Czech Finance Minister Miroslav
Kalousek split from the Christian Democratic Party (KDU-CSL)
shortly after the fall of PM Topolanek's government in March,
ostensibly because of its shift to the left. After the
European Parliament elections in early June, Kalousek
launched a new political party called TOP 09. TOP 09 is
right-of-center, fiscally conservative and pro-European.
Former Minister of Foreign Affairs Karel Schwarzenberg is the
party's chairman and together with Kalousek provides the star
power, which Kalousek hopes will help the party pass the five
percent barrier needed to win seats in the October
parliamentary elections. The initial response to TOP 09 was
positive but the novelty of the party may be waning as it
struggles to differentiate itself from ODS, its main rival
(and natural coalition partner) on the right, and answer
questions about its long-term viability. TOP 09 is expected
to attract disaffected ODS voters and could also attract some
support from KDU-CSL, the Greens and even the Social
Democrats (CSSD). Its likely performance in the October 9-10
elections is still a major question mark. It has the
potential to significantly impact the elections or could be
the next in a long series of failed Czech political parties.
End Summary.

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Kalousek Leaves KDU-CSL
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2. (C) Shortly after PM Mirek Topolanek's government lost a
vote of confidence on March 24, then-Finance Minster Miroslav
Kalousek announced that he would soon leave the Christian
Democratic Party (KDU-CSL) because the party's platform had
shifted to the left of center, and hinted he would start a
new party. Specifically, Kalousek cited KDU-CSL's position
on issues such as taxation and social benefits as the reason
for his departure. (Comment: In a private conversation,
KDU-CSL's International Secretary said that this was just a
ruse. He noted that many of the policies to which Kalousek
objects were actually developed under his reign as party
Chairman. He felt the split was mostly due to the strong
animosity between Kalousek and new KDU-CSL chair Cyril
Svoboda. TOP 09's International Secretary confirmed this as
well. End Comment.)


3. (SBU) Kalousek had been a member of KDU-CSL for 25 years
and was its chairman from 2003 to 2006. KDU-CSL had its
party congress at the end of May 2009 and elected Cyril
Svoboda as its new chairman (Ref A). Svoboda had been the
KDU-CSL chairman from 2001 to 2003 and is viewed by many as
supporting a possible coalition with CSSD. Kalousek attended
the party congress but did not speak. On June 11, he held a
press conference and TOP 09 was launched.

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A Stalking Horse for ODS?
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4. (SBU) TOP 09 calls itself a center-right, pro-business,
pro-free market, and pro-Europe party that supports a strong
trans-Atlantic relationship. TOP 09 has vowed to fight
corruption, and supports limited government, fair taxation,
fiscal responsibility and a stronger emphasis on
"Judeo-Christian values." However, TOP 09 has yet to address
specific issues or lay out concrete proposals for achieving
these broad objectives. Judeo-Christian values aside, much
of what TOP 09 endorses is not significantly different than
ODS. Kalousek was widely viewed as ex-ODS PM Topolanek's
favorite minister and Topolanek even lobbied for Kalousek to
serve in the current technocratic government, a move that was
vetoed by CSSD. Initially many observers suggested that
Kalousek was forming TOP 09 as a stepping stone to merge part
of KDU-CSL with ODS. Those that know him, however, dismissed
this suggesting that Kalousek was not interested in joining
ODS as he would rather be a big fish in a small pond than
play third fiddle in a larger party. Nevertheless, TOP 09,
as ODS's most natural coalition partner, could very well play
the role of a stalking horse for ODS by preventing those
center-right voters disillusioned with ODS from voting for
more leftist parties or throwing away their votes on marginal
parties unlikely to clear the 5 percent threshold. In any
case, ODS officials are telling us that while they would
welcome TOP 09 as a coalition partner after the elections,
until the elections, they are treating TOP 09 as a serious
rival.

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TOP 09-Personalities and Program
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PRAGUE 00000453 002 OF 003




5. (C) At the press conference introducing and announcing
TOP 09, Kalousek had Karel Schwarzenberg at his side. The
press tagged them as the "brains" and the "face" of the
party. Kalousek is renowned for his political savvy and
deal-making abilities. However, he carries some baggage from
corruption cases he was involved in when he headed the budget
and acquisitions department at the Ministry of Defense from
1993 to 1998. Schwarzenberg is not a day-to-day manager, but
he is a widely respected and trusted figure and gives the
party moral credibility. In a recent poll, Schwarzenberg was
the second most popular politician in the Czech Republic. He
is a direct descendant of Czech nobility and his family was
forced into exile in 1948. He returned in 1989 and took up
residence in a castle he obtained in restitution. Although
he describes himself as both a forester and innkeeper,
"Prince Karel" (as he is sometimes called) also has a
financial interest in the highly-respected news weekly
Respekt and is co-owner of Becherovka, the national liquor.
Despite his impeccable reputation, his 1997 acquisition of
Becherovka, together with coal tycoon Zdenek Bakala, raised
eyebrows at the time, as his was far from the highest bid.
Although he is very popular, the parties with which he has
been associated in the past have not always done well. He
was most recently the Minister of Foreign Affairs in PM
Topolanek's government, having been nominated by the
currently struggling Greens (although he was never formally a
member of that party). Schwarzenberg won his current Senate
seat with the now defunct Freedom Union party.
Schwarzenberg, age 71, suffered health problems that required
open heart surgery in February 2008. His recuperation
sidelined him for over two months. TOP 09's International
Secretary said that Kalousek and Schwarzenberg know and trust
each other well. Schwarzenberg is in charge of directing the
campaign and Kalousek is responsible for developing the
party's platform.


6. (C) In his speech to the 2008 KDU-CSL Congress, Kalousek
asked rhetorically "whether we are Western European style
Christian Democrats or church-going socialists." In forming
TOP 09, Kalousek said that KDU-CSL had become the latter.
Although Kalousek ostensibly established the party as a
response to KDU-CSL's shift to the left, pinning down what
TOP 09 really stands for is difficult. In the Czech
language, the acronym TOP stands for tradition,
responsibility and prosperity. In the political realm it
claims to be a conservative party that will take its
"European and Trans-Atlantic relationships seriously."
Kalousek has said it will not be a populist party and that it
will only make realistic promises that are fiscally feasible.
Many scoffed when Kalousek said his party would fight
corruption (remembering how he was embroiled in corruption
scandals) and seek to inject integrity into the government.
According to TOP 09's International Secretary, Schwarzenberg
will be in charge of all foreign affairs. Schwarzenberg is
pro-U.S. and pro-Missile Defense and TOP 09's foreign
policies are expected to reflect Schwarzenberg's beliefs.


7. (C) To date, dozens of other KDU-CSL party members and
eight MPs have left KDU-CSL for TOP 09. Aside from Kalousek
and Schwarzenberg, the other Minister from Topolanek's
government to join is Vlasta Parkanova, the Minister of
Defense under Topolanek's government. Other TOP 09 members
include Pavol Luksa, a regional politician and mayor of a
wealthy Northern Moravian town. Luksa is also a successful
businessman and could be one of the financial backers of the
party. Another businessman who has links to TOP 09 is
Richard Hava, Chairman of Omnipol, a weapons trading company.
Hava and Kalousek are close friends but Kalousek denied he
would receive any financial backing from Hava.


8. (SBU) TOP 09 currently has its main office in Prague and
has a branch office in every region. TOP 09 was officially
registered as a party on June 26, 2009, and Kalousek noted at
the time that 600 people had applied for membership. As of
the end of July, the party's membership had jumped to 1300.

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TOP Faces Uphill Climb
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9. (C) Immediately after announcing TOP 09, a Factum Invenio
poll run for the newspaper Pravo showed that 43.8 percent of
respondents said that TOP 09 will be successful with voters.
However, some weeks later, on June 26, CVVM (a leading
polling agency) released the results of a poll showing that
TOP 09 would only get 2 percent of the vote if parliamentary
elections were held that day. A Factum poll released on July
30 showed that TOP 09 would have received 5 percent of the
vote if the elections had been held in July (RefB). While
this would get them across the minimum threshold to enter
Parliament, it is not the kind of traction the party had
hoped for, though it may be enough to get them into the

PRAGUE 00000453 003 OF 003


nationally televised debates which will increase their
exposure. In a meeting with emboffs, former Minister of
Agriculture and current ODS candidate Petr Gandalovic
observed that many new parties are formed, but most do not
get off the ground. He predicted that TOP 09 may do well in
certain local and regional elections, but added that
political parties are also social structures and not just
personalities. He noted, however, that while they are a
competitor for ODS, they are also seen as a potential
coalition partner.


10. (C) In a sign the party is attempting to broaden its
appeal, TOP 09 and the political movement Mayors and
Independents signed a long-term (through 2012) cooperation
agreement on July 9. Mayors and Independents received 2.28
percent of the vote in the June 2009 European Parliament
elections, its first election as a political movement. TOP
09 and Mayors and Independents will run a joint election
campaign and will have the same electoral program. Some
members of the Mayors and Independents movement will be on
the TOP 09 list of candidates, but the Mayors and
Independents will have priority at the local and regional
level. If they win seats in the October elections, TOP 09
and the Mayors and Independents will form a joint
parliamentary faction titled "Top 09 and Mayors." Priorities
of the two entities include transparency in government,
fighting corruption, stability of the public budget, and
municipal autonomy. Schwarzenberg will be at the top of the
Prague region's candidate list, while Petr Gazdik, chairman
of the Mayors and Independents, will lead the South Moravia
region. In addition, another new but small party, Obcane.cz,
is losing five of its 25 members to TOP 09 - its student
group is leaving to join TOP 09.


11. (C) Financing will be a crucial issue for TOP 09's
electoral success. Kalousek and Schwarzenberg have vowed not
to take loans and said that all financing will come from
donations. This has raised some eyebrows, given the extent
of Kalousek's ties to certain business people. Kalousek said
the party will publish the list of all donations. Many
speculate that he will bury the names of certain donors, with
whom TOP 09 will not want to be publicly associated. On July
25, TOP 09 announced that it had thus far received 15 million
CZK (roughly 850,000 USD),about half of what it says it
needs to run a successful campaign in the fall. One
contributor, Dusan Novotny, a businessman who earned his
wealth through a chain of pharmacies, contributed 11 of the
15 million CZK. A Slovenian banker, Stefan Loncnar,
contributed 1 million CZK. None of these donors has caused
controversy.

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TOP 09 - An Electoral Wildcard
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12. (C) Comment: The Czech Republic has seen numerous
political parties come and quickly go since the Velvet
Revolution 20 years ago. Czech politics are heavily driven
by personalities, and TOP 09 is relying on the star power of
its "face," former FM Schwarzenberg and its "brains," former
Finance Minister Kalousek, to put it over the top. With
significant name recognition and a good start toward strong
financial baking, it may well make a significant impact on
the margins of the October 9-10 parliamentary elections.
What this impact will be, however, is still a big unknown and
TOP 09 is the elections' major wildcard. Many political
pundits seem to agree that TOP 09 will most likely draw its
support at the expense of ODS. TOP 09, as ODS's most natural
coalition partner, however, could also help ODS if it keeps
votes from disaffected ODS voters in the center-right fold.
TOP 09 could also significantly hurt KDU-CSL, which at 8
percent in the polls does not have a lot of room to spare.
Nevertheless, KDU-CSL's voter base, though dwindling, appears
loyal to new head Svoboda and the recent Factum poll suggests
that its base is staying firm. A planned visit by the Pope
two weeks before the elections could also rally KDU-CSL's
catholic voter base. Many of the prominent KDU-CSL's members
that have left for TOP 09 joined KDU-CSL only after the ODA
party went defunct; thus as relative newcomers, the number
of committed long-term KDU-CSL supporter they may be able to
bring with them is limited. TOP 09, with Schwarzenberg,
could also take some votes from the more conservative members
of the Greens, concerned that their party is unlikely to make
the five percent cut. If TOP 09 cannot cross the 5 percent
threshold, that leaves ODS alone on the right, with the
Communists and Social Democrats on the left and KDU-CSL in
the center. Leading analyst Vladimira Dvorakova told us that
ODS's biggest nightmare is that TOP 09 takes away a good
chunk of its vote only to not make it into parliament. End
Comment.
Thompson-Jones