Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09PRAGUE321
2009-06-11 08:20:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Prague
Cable title:  

ODS WINS CZECH EP ELECTIONS DUE TO LOW VOTER

Tags:  PGOV PREL EUN EZ 
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RR RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHNP RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHPG #0321/01 1620820
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 110820Z JUN 09
FM AMEMBASSY PRAGUE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 1447
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PRAGUE 000321 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/10/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL EUN EZ
SUBJECT: ODS WINS CZECH EP ELECTIONS DUE TO LOW VOTER
TURNOUT, PERSONALITIES

REF: A. 28 MAY 2009 PRAGUE DAILY

B. 9 JUNE 2009 PRAGUE DAILY

C. PRAGUE 314

D. PRAGUE 306

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Mary Thompson-Jones, reasons 1.4 (b) a
nd (d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PRAGUE 000321

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/10/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL EUN EZ
SUBJECT: ODS WINS CZECH EP ELECTIONS DUE TO LOW VOTER
TURNOUT, PERSONALITIES

REF: A. 28 MAY 2009 PRAGUE DAILY

B. 9 JUNE 2009 PRAGUE DAILY

C. PRAGUE 314

D. PRAGUE 306

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Mary Thompson-Jones, reasons 1.4 (b) a
nd (d).


1. (C) Summary: Four of the Czech Republic's parliamentary
parties: the right-of-center Civic Democratic Party (ODS),
the left-of-center Social Democratic Party (CSSD),the
Communist Party (KSCM) and the Christian Democratic Party
(KDU-CSL) obtained seats in the June 5-6 European
Parliamentary (EP) elections. Voter turnout was just over 28
percent and mirrored the turnout rate during the country's
last and only EP elections in 2004. According to public
opinion experts and Czech political analysts, ODS'
wider-than-expected margin of victory can be attributed to
this low voter turnout and popular personalities on the ODS
ticket. The CSSD, which lost a significant lead in public
opinion polls over the past few weeks lost the momentum it
had gained in the October 2008 senate and regional elections,
but still more than doubled its support as compared to 2004.
The Green Party suffered a serious defeat, receiving only 2
percent of the vote, prompting party leader and former Deputy
PM Martin Bursik to resign. Three far right parties did
poorly, with the largest receiving just over one percent,
enough to qualify for government funds, but not enough to
obtain a seat. Given that turnout for Czech parliamentary
elections is traditionally much higher, the results of this
EP election should not necessarily be seen as an accurate
predictor for the October national elections. The
bare-knuckled campaign tactics and the fairly equal dominance
of the larger parties, however, are likely to be repeated
this fall. End Summary.

FAMILIAR FACES TURN OUT THE VOTE FOR ODS, CSSD RECEIVES
DISAPPOINTING VOTE


2. (SBU) According to pollsters and Czech political
analysts, perQalities and turnout, rather than issues, were
key to ODS,s victory. ODS, whose candidate roster included
a number of well-known and respected personalities, won the
elections by a wider margin than expected (10 percent over
CSSD),with 31.4 percent of the vote, and maintained its 9

seats in the EP (out of 22 total seats). Evzen Tosenovsky, a
very popular former Major of Ostrava and governor of the
Moravian-Silesian region, topped the candidate list with
nearly 105,000 preferential votes, nearly 39,000 more than
the runner up, another ODS candidate Jan Zahradil.


3. (SBU) There was also 6-7 percent higher voter turnout in
Prague and other larger Czech cities, where there are
traditionally more right-of-center supporters, than in the
rural parts of the country. According to post-election data,
35 percent of Prague residents went to the polls,
constituting about one-sixth of the total vote. Even so, ODS
won every region except for Olomouc.


4. (SBU) The left-of-center Social Democratic Party (CSSD)
came in second, with 22.4 percent of the vote, a significant
increase from the 9 percent of the vote it received in 2004,
but a let down given the CSSD,s landslide victory in the
Fall 2008 Senate and local elections. Nonetheless, the party
increased its seat total in the EP to end with 7 seats
overall.


5. (SBU) The Communists took approximately 14.2 percent of
the vote, compared to 20.3 percent in 2004, losing 2 of their
6 seats. The Christian Democrats (KDU-CSL) - part of former
PM Topolanek's coalition - held on to their 2 seats in the
EP, despite a rift in the party. This can likely be
attributed to a constant support base in the catholic
community and a change in leadership (KDU recently voted out
the controversial incumbent party leader Jiri Cunek and
elected a new Chairman, Cyril Svoboda).

SMALL PARTIES HAVE POOR EP SHOWING


6. (SBU) The smaller parties running in the EP elections won
almost 25 percent of the vote, but failed to win any seats
because none of them met the 5 percent threshold for EP
Parliamentary representation. There were three Green parties
on the ticket and the former coalition partner, Green Party
(SZ) received only 2 percent of the vote.SZ' humiliating loss
was likely caused by the party split in March 2009. After
the election Green Party Chairman and former Minister of the
Environment Martin Bursik resigned, leaving the party in
shambles with no strong leadership.


7. (SBU) It was also a disappointing weekend for President
Vaclav Klaus, whose right-wing Euroskeptic allies failed to

PRAGUE 00000321 002 OF 002


make the cut. Of the three Euroskeptic parties: Sovereignty,
the Czech branch of Libertas, and the Free Citizen's Party,
Sovereignty was the only party to come close to gaining a
seat, receiving 4.26 percent of the vote thanks to the
leadership of popular Euroskeptic former MEP Jana Bobosikova.
Klaus never officially voiced his support for any of the
parties, claiming the elections were "pointless."

EXTREMISTS GARNER JUST ONE PERCENT


8. (SBU) Although the three right-wing extremist parties
competing in the elections all did poorly, the most
well-known of the three, the Worker's Party won just over 1
percent of the vote, qualifying it for government funding.

THE CZECHS IN THE EU


9. (SBU) ODS announced its plans to leave the European
People's Party (EPP) faction in the EP and join British
conservative party leader David Cameron's more Euroskeptic
and Transatlantic faction. According to Czech political
analysts, the Czech cohort could lose some influence within
the EP by aiding in the internal split of the EPP.

THE OCTOBER NATIONAL CAMPAIGN IS IN FULL SWING


10. (C) Comment: Personalities appear to have triumphed
over issues in the EP elections, as most Czechs do not really
understand the EP and its relevance to their daily lives. In
the end, Czechs voters chose people they know and trust
(Tosenovsky being the ultimate example). Many analysts warn
that given the nature of the EP elections, this was not as
significant a defeat for the CSSD as it has sometimes been
portrayed in the press and should not be seen as an accurate
forecaster for the October parliamentary elections. Most
Czechs are not familiar with the EP,s role or influence.
Although the EP campaign focused on domestic issues, it
failed to link those issues to the EP and its sphere of
influence. Czech polling agencies did not conduct exit
polling, and it is difficult to determine to what extent CSSD
involvement in bringing down the Topolanek government and the
two week egg-throwing campaign affected voters.


11. (C) Comment (continued): Some public opinion experts
argue that this election was a referendum on ODS leader and
former Prime Minister Mirek Topolanek and CSSD leader Jiri
Paroubek, and Topolanek won. CSSD spent nearly double the
amount of money on its campaign (approximately 66 million
Kcs) that ODS spent. However, October 2009 could well be a
much different story. The economy is still in recession,
unemployment, while still low by European standards, is
growing, and people are anxious about economic conditions.
In four months, campaigns focused on economic issues and what
the government can do to help the average person may resonate
better with the average voter. CSSD leader Paroubek claims
that CSSD continues to be the most popular party in most
national polls. The campaign for the EP elections was a
precursor to the tough fight the two major parties (ODS and
CSSD) will undertake in the October 2009 parliamentary
elections. End Comment.
Thompson-Jones