Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09PRAGUE228
2009-04-27 14:26:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Prague
Cable title:  

CZECH EU PRESIDENCY VIEWS ON THE BALKANS

Tags:  CVIS EUN EZ PGOV PREL XG 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO9912
RR RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDBU RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA
RUEHLN RUEHLZ RUEHNP RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSK RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHPG #0228/01 1171426
ZNR UUUCC ZZH
R 271426Z APR 09
FM AMEMBASSY PRAGUE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 1319
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEHBW/AMEMBASSY BELGRADE 0014
RUEHPOD/AMEMBASSY PODGORICA 0009
RUEHPS/AMEMBASSY PRISTINA 0062
RUEHVJ/AMEMBASSY SARAJEVO 0056
RUEHSQ/AMEMBASSY SKOPJE 0196
RUEHTI/AMEMBASSY TIRANA 0098
RUEHVB/AMEMBASSY ZAGREB 0321
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 PRAGUE 000228 

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: CVIS EUN EZ PGOV PREL XG
SUBJECT: CZECH EU PRESIDENCY VIEWS ON THE BALKANS

REF: PRAGUE 24

PRAGUE 00000228 001.2 OF 003


UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 PRAGUE 000228

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: CVIS EUN EZ PGOV PREL XG
SUBJECT: CZECH EU PRESIDENCY VIEWS ON THE BALKANS

REF: PRAGUE 24

PRAGUE 00000228 001.2 OF 003



1. (U) SUMMARY: Czech MFA South and South East Europe
Director Tomas Szunyog reviewed the Czech EU Presidency's
progress in the Western Balkans. According to Szunyog lack
of EU consensus has been impeding progress. The Czechs
expect few significant advances during the remainder of the
Czech EU Presidency, but anticipate some small steps forward
may still be made. End Summary.

--------------
ROADBLOCKS FOR THE WESTERN BALKANS
--------------


2. (U) On April 15, emboffs met with Czech MFA South and
South East Europe Director Tomas Szunyog to discuss EU
enlargement in the Western Balkans. According to Szunyog,
there are four major challenges impeding EU efforts to
advance enlargement in the Western Balkans: 1) The Lisbon
Treaty has still not been ratified and EU member states are
reluctant to move forward on enlargement without Lisbon in
place. 2) In light of the economic and financial crisis
members are reluctant to proceed with enlargement. 3) Other
key EU priorities (i.e. Middle East, Afghanistan) have moved
the Balkans, which are stable in comparison to these hot
spots, down on the agenda. 4) European Parliament elections
are scheduled for June and action on most issues will be
suspended until after the elections. He added that progress
may also have to wait until after the German elections
scheduled for September. EUR Assistant Secretary Fried heard
a similar assessment from DFM Tomas Pojar during his visit to
Prague in January 2009 (ref A). At that time, Pojar
complained of EU inertia due to enlargement fatigue.

--------------
SMALL STEPS: PROGRESS ON MEMBERSHIP FOR MONTENEGRO AND ALBANIA
--------------


3. (SBU) The Czech Presidency still hopes for some progress
with regard to the EU membership applications of Montenegro
and Albania. Montenegro's EU membership application should
be passed to the European Commission (for the traditional
review) at the next EU ministerial-level meeting, which
happens to be the EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council in
Luxembourg on April 23rd. This is a long awaited, but
welcome development for the Czechs, as Montenegro's
application was not passed to the Commission earlier because

of objections by the Netherlands, Germany, Spain, France, and
Belgium. Albanian Prime Minister Sali Berisha is scheduled
to submit an EU membership application on behalf of Albania
on April 28th. (Note: This application comes exactly two
months prior to Albanian elections. End Note.)

--------------
VISA LIBERALIZATION FOR SOME
--------------


4. (SBU) Though Germany and the Nordic countries remain
skeptical, according to Szunyog there is a general
understanding among EU members that visa liberalization
should be granted for at least some of the Western Balkans
countries soon. The second technical report is due out in
early May on the readiness of Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia,
Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Albania for visa liberalization.
The report will most likely highlight Macedonia, Montenegro
and Serbia as the most technically prepared, in that order.
Bosnia and Albania are likely to have a less favorable
report. In Szunyog's opinion, the decision to grant visa
liberalization should be a technical one, but he fully
anticipates politics will also be a factor in the EU
deliberations. There is a concern among some EU members, for
example, about the appearance of allowing Serbia to get in,
but not Albania. Though the EU does not mean for visa
liberalization to be seen as a conciliation prize, it is
often seen politically as a way to make up for a lack of
movement in the EU membership process. Most likely, only
some of the countries will be granted visa liberalization,
but even here there is a concern that this would lead to
increased "passport shopping" in which citizens of one Balkan
country apply for passports in neighboring countries.

--------------
CROATIA: PROGRESS STALLED
--------------

PRAGUE 00000228 002.2 OF 003




5. (U) The Czech Presidency set a goal of closing ten
accession chapters for Croatia during its EU Presidency.
However, none have been closed thus far, due mostly to
ongoing disputes with Slovenia. The Croatia Enlargement
Conference, postponed to April 24th, has now been postponed
again, due to the current stalemate. With these
postponements, it becomes less likely that Croatia will
finish its roadmap goal of closing all chapters by the end of

2009.


6. (SBU) The main problem with Croatia moving forward with
its chapters remains the border dispute with Slovenia.
Szunyog bemoaned the fact that they have not made any notable
progress since September 2008. Both sides have accepted the
idea to have a group of experts mediate, but the terms of
reference and composition of the group remains unresolved.
Croatia has municipal elections scheduled in May, so it is
unlikely that immediate progress will come on EU enlargement
before then. EU Enlargement Commissioner Ollie Rehn met with
both sides on April 22 and unfortunately it appears these
discussion did not go well. As for other unresolved
Slovenia-Croatia issues (nuclear waste and Ljubliana Bank
nationalization),Szunyog believes these will be relatively
easy to resolve once the border dispute is solved. However,
the Ljubliana Bank nationalization case could become more
complicated, as Belgium has interest in the matter.
Additionally, the Dutch are concerned over the missing
documents needed in the ICTY case of Ante Gotovina. Croatia
has maintained it cannot find these documents or that they do
not exist.

--------------
BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA: VISA FREE TRAVEL NOT COMING SOON,
FMS URGE ACCELERATED REFORM
--------------


7. (SBU) Even though Bosnia has floated the idea of a visa
free region for the Western Balkans, this idea will not
likely be accepted. In regards to technical preparedness,
Bosnia is far behind its neighbors. Szunyog also pointed out
that Bosnia is not as stable politically as some of the other
countries seeking visa liberalization. Note: Czech, Swedish
and French FMs Karel Schwarzenberg, Carl Bildt, and Bernard
Kuchner recently visited Sarajevo where they urged Bosnia to
speed up reform efforts. End Note.

--------------
KOSOVO: HOLDING PATTERN UNTIL AFTER ICJ
--------------


8. (SBU) As Kosovo is not yet recognized by all EU member
states it is impossible to start negotiating visa free
liberalization with them at this time. However, Kosovo
continues to work on passport, border and visa reforms. At
the recent Gymnich, EU foreign ministers brainstormed about
how to enlarge and fully staff their EU civilian missions.
The main challenge of getting enough troops for EULEX remains
merging and coordinating the many different national-based
systems of all member states. Kosovo's current holding
pattern boils down to many member countries waiting for the
ICJ decision before acting and/or commenting further about
Kosovo.

--------------
SERBIA: DUTCH STILL WAITING FOR FULL COMPLIANCE, SHOWING
SMALL SIGNS OF FLEXIBILITY
--------------


9. (SBU) The Dutch continue to block everything regarding
Serbia, demanding full ICTY compliance as a first step.
According to Szunyog, recently Spain asked the Dutch to be
more flexible on Serbia, and the Dutch replied, "If Spain
recognized Kosovo, we'll consider it". There is hope,
however, that the Dutch may be willing to be more flexible to
the idea of visa liberalization or the interim trade
agreement. A new report on Serbia is due out June 4th. It
will most likely be positive, but the extradition of Ratko
Mladic will remain the key problem.

--------------
MONTENEGRO: WAITING FOR A NEW COMMISSION
--------------


PRAGUE 00000228 003.2 OF 003



10. (SBU) With Montenegro's EU application expected to
formally pass to the Commission April 23, things look good
for Montenegro on the surface. In order to push the
application through, an agreement was made that no work would
be done on this until after there is a new Commission in the
second half of 2010. Realistically, Szunyog fears not much
may happen until the Hungarian EU Presidency in the spring of

2011.

--------------
MACEDONIA: GREECE CAN'T VETO VISA LIBERALIZATION
--------------


11. (SBU) Fortunately for Macedonia, visa liberalization is
decided by EU members according to a majority vote, and no
one country has veto rights. In addition, Macedonia is
leading the Western Balkan countries in technical
preparedness, which makes it the most likely to be ready for
visa liberalization by the start of 2010. Unfortunately for
Macedonia, there is no sign of a compromise on the name issue
with Greece, which has been blocking negotiation dates from
being scheduled and accession chapters from opening. The
Czech EU Presidency has encouraged Macedonia to compromise
with Greece soon, while they have the domestic political
capital to do so, and three years to prove to their
constituency that the compromise paid off. There is an EU
progress report due out in October, but if the Greeks are not
satisfied, Szunyog opined, nothing will happen. Szunyog
believes there is only one way for Macedonia to move forward
and beyond the name dispute, and that is to become Northern
Macedonia. He worries otherwise that in five years Macedonia
will not exist, and will be divided between Kosovo and
Bulgaria. He points toward the evidence that total voter
turn out in the recent second round elections was only 42
percent, with ethnic Albanians hardly participating.

--------------
ALBANIA: DOCUMENTATION "REALLY A MESS"
--------------


12. (SBU) Szunyog was not optimistic with regard to Albania's
chances to qualify for visa liberalization this year.
Szunyog commented that Albania was "really a mess," with an
estimated 700,000 to 900,000 completely undocumented people.
These undocumented people, as well as people dually
documented under similar names, complicate elections and
voter lists. Albanian authorities are just beginning to
issue proper IDs and passports to the general public. There
are currently 3.1 million people in the new database, which
includes finger prints, and when completed, will represent a
huge improvement.



13. (SBU) COMMENT: The Western Balkans continue to have a
friend in the Czech Republic, but the Czechs have not been
able to accomplish as much as they had hoped given the
current challenges within the Western Balkan countries and
within the EU. The next three presidencies (Sweden, Spain,
and Belgium) unfortunately, are not expected to push as
enthusiastically as the Czechs on EU enlargement and thus
there could well be an 18 month slow down of progress until
the Hungarian EU Presidency in the spring of 2011.
Thompson-Jones