PACIFIC ISLAND FORUM LEADERS TAKE STRONG ACTION ON FIJI

C O N F I D E N T I A L PORT MORESBY 000013


DEPT FOR EAP/ANP

E.O. 12958: DECL: 1/28/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL PP FJ
SUBJECT: PACIFIC ISLAND FORUM LEADERS TAKE STRONG ACTION ON FIJI

REF: A. PORT MORESBY 11

B. SUVA 31

CLASSIFIED BY: Leslie V. Rowe, Ambassador, U.S. Embassy Port
Moresby, U.S. Department of State.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)


1. (C) Summary: Despite early indications that Forum leaders
would adhere to the conciliatory "Pacific Way" of dealing with
Bainimarama, they instead issued a strong statement (Reftel A)
on January 27 calling on the Interim Government to take action
to hold elections and restore democracy in Fiji. They agreed to
"targeted measures" which will go into effect unless Bainimarama
publicly announces an election date by May 1 and holds elections
by the end of the year. Targeted measures include suspension of
Bainimarama and other Interim Government leaders from all Forum
meetings and ineligibility of Fiji to benefit from Forum
initiatives and assistance other than assistance directed toward
restoring democracy. Leaders hashed out a consensus in a
lengthy meeting followed by a press conference. Australian
Prime Minister Rudd and New Zealand Prime Minister Key
reportedly pushed effectively for the strong measures while
Papua New Guinea Prime Minister Somare led other island nations
in a more conciliatory approach, opposing suspension of Fiji
from the Forum. In the end the hardliners prevailed. End
Summary.


2. (C) Contentious Forum Meeting: Forum leaders from Pacific
Island countries met for almost four hours on January 27 in Port
Moresby to review the lack of progress toward restoring
democracy in Fiji. Early reports indicated that only Australia
and New Zealand would push for suspension of Fiji from the
Forum. A number of smaller countries (Tonga, Kiribati, and
Tuvalu) opposed suspension, fearing negative repercussions to
their trade and educational ties. Papua New Guinea, Solomon
Islands, and Vanuatu also opposed suspension. Vanuatu Prime
Minister Natapei told Ambassador January 26 that the Forum had
to continue to engage with Fiji. It would not make sense to
suspend Fiji from the Forum as Bainimarama could then ignore
pressure and stay in power for years. In his welcoming remarks
at a reception on January 26, PNG Prime Minister Michael Somare
tried to set the stage for the meeting. He said that the Forum
leaders had gathered "to extend a helping hand to a friend in
trouble" and that the Forum should emphasize inclusiveness,
engagement, and solving difficulties "the Pacific Way." In
Somare's presentation at the leaders' meeting, he cautioned
against a confrontational approach, saying "Like the values that
the Prodigal Son's story extols, the Forum should find it in its
heart to forgive Fiji and help it see the ways of participatory
democracy."


3. (C) Hardliners Prevail: Somare referred to "targeted
measures" envisaged under the Biketawa Declaration but said they
should not be punitive. Somare and other leaders thought that
the Forum should not make a decision without meeting with
Bainimarama. Apparently one counter-proposal was to have a
follow-up meeting on February 14 to engage in direct dialogue
with Bainimarama. Only after his response would leaders then
consider giving an ultimatum. One contact characterized
Somare's approach during the meeting as "pleading with the
leaders" to be patient with Fiji. Somare reportedly said the
Forum should give Fiji more time to move toward elections.
Prime Minister Rudd apparently agreed with Somare and quickly
suggested a May 1 deadline before any suspension would go into
effect. Australia and New Zealand took the lead in advocating
for strong measures to deal with Fiji and were backed by Forum
Chairman Toke Talagi as well as the leaders of Samoa and Cook
Islands.


4. (C) Forum Should Look Beyond Fiji: Reportedly, Prime
Minister Rudd played a strong role in the meeting making several
key points which had an impact on the outcome. In his Forum
presentation and remarks at the press conference, Rudd noted
that the Forum had spent the last two years discussing ways to
encourage Bainimarama to return Fiji to democracy. He said that
it was time to take action and move on to more pressing matters.
Rudd warned of the economic train wreck that was imminent and
that Forum leaders needed to focus on how the international
economic crisis would affect their countries. Rudd's points
along with Bainimarama's public statement that he could be in
power an additional 5-10 years and the expulsion of another
editor of the Fiji Times swayed the leaders to vote for the
decision which could result in Fiji's suspension from the Forum
on May 1.


5. (C) Fiji High Commissioner Comments: Ambassador spoke to
Fiji High Commissioner Ratu Isoa Tikoca on January 28.
Bainimarama recalled him last week calling him a "collaborator"
for hand-delivering Prime Minister Somare's letter asking that
he re-consider his decision not to come to the Forum meeting.
The High Commissioner's last official act this week was to
manage the Fiji delegation at the Forum meeting. He said that
Bainimarama was informed of the Forum outcome and was "madly
upset". Tikoca fears the repercussions for Fiji saying that
Bainimarama might now move to incorporate the People's Charter
into the Constitution without having it go through Parliament.
He also said that the outcome might result in Bainimarama
becoming even more unstable in his decision-making. He
characterized the Fiji envoy, Attorney General Aiyaz
Sayed-Khaiyum, as "Bainimarama's closest friend" who has
repeatedly told him that the time is not ripe to conduct
elections. Sayed-Khaiyum reportedly did not give an effective
presentation at the Forum meeting. He later complained publicly
that he was unhappy with the outcome and had not been given
sufficient time to present Fiji's case. (The High Commissioner
is also concerned about returning to Fiji and plans to delay his
return).


6. (C) Comment: PNG is known as "the land of the unexpected,"
and The Forum decision to take a strong stand on dealing with
Bainimarama was certainly not predicted by observers -- nor
favored by its host. The body language as leaders left the
meeting was symbolic. Prime Minister Rudd and his delegation
strode quickly by, followed a few minutes later by Prime
Minister Somare who plodded along looking downcast. Prime
Minister Rudd and Prime Minister Key also reportedly worked well
together in advocating their position. The world economic
situation certainly is of great concern in the Pacific Island
countries. Prime Minister Rudd's comments on the need for the
Forum leaders to change their focus from Fiji to financial
issues seemed to have had an effect. It was also probably not
lost on them that this warning came from Australia, currently
having its own economic difficulties, the biggest bilateral
donor in the Pacific. End Comment.


ROWE