PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION WRAP-UP

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 PODGORICA 000084

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL MW
SUBJECT: PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION WRAP-UP

REF: A: PODGORICA 75; B: PODGORICA 71

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1. (SBU) SUMMARY: On April 2, Montenegro's State Election
Commission (SEC) rejected appeals to hold repeat votes at
several polling stations. While parties may still take their
cases to the Constitutional Court, the SEC decision likely
finalizes the results of the election. The vote, which the OSCE
assessed as meeting "almost all" international standards,
affirmed Montenegro's multi-ethnic character and Euro-Atlantic
course. However, the continued and now almost total domination
of the ruling coalition over all branches of government could
weaken democratic checks and balances. END SUMMARY.



SEC Rejects Appeals~

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2. (U) On April 2, the State Election Commission turned down
appeals for repeat votes at the handful of polling stations
which had experienced what the SEC termed "minor irregularities"
on election day. Parties/coalitions still have three days to
appeal to the Constitutional Court, but the SEC decision likely
finalizes the election results.



~Likely Dooming NS-DSS Chances

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3. (SBU) The only significant consequence of the SEC decision is
that the pro-Serb People's Party - Democratic Serbian Party
(NS-DSS) coalition, which parallel vote counts put squarely at
the three percent parliamentary threshold, will fall about 450
votes short of entering Parliament. The NS-DSS, which had
pinned its hopes on repeat votes at two polling stations in
heavily Serb Herceg Novi municipality, vowed to appeal to the
Constitutional Court.



"Final" Tallies

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4. (U) Barring the unlikely event of a Court decision in favor
of the NS-DSS, the composition of the new 81-member Parliament
will be as follows:



--"European Montenegro" coalition: 48 seats

--Socialist People's Party (SNP): 16

--New Serbian Democracy (NOVA): 8

--Movement for Change (PzP): 5

--Democratic Union of Albanians (DUA): 1

--FORCA: 1

--Democratic Alliance/Albanian Alternative: 1

--Albanian Coalition "Perspective": 1




5. (U) The last four parties/coalitions are Albanian parties.
While five MPs are elected from specially designated
Albanian-majority polling stations, the ruling coalition won the
fifth Albanian seat, resulting in the loss of one Albanian seat
from the current Parliament.



OSCE: Election Day Kudos, Some Campaign Concerns

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6. (U) The OSCE/ODIHR mission, together with the OSCE PA and
PACE, assessed the election as having "met almost all

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international commitments and standards." In particular, the
observers gave Montenegro's election administration and vote
itself high marks. However, the OSCE/ODIHR, noting that the
campaign had witnessed the blurring of state and party
structures, allegations of electoral fraud, and TV news bias,
also said that the campaign "again underscored the need for
further democratic development." The OSCE/ODIHR's final report
is expected out in mid-May.



The Positive...

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7. (SBU) As touched on in Ref A, the election produced several
positive developments. These included:



--Affirmation of Independence: The campaign was noteworthy for
the absence of emotional challenges to Montenegrin statehood.
Less than three years after the highly contentious independence
referendum, this question appears to have been settled.



--Democratic Progress: The calm nature of the campaign and the
solid marks for election day proceedings represent another step
forward in Montenegro's democratic maturation, despite some
concerns about the conduct of the campaign.



--A Vote for Stability: Montenegrins gave the GoM a vote of
confidence as Montenegro enters troubled economic waters, with
the global financial storm expected to pound the country more
severely in the coming months.



--Continued Euro-Atlantic Integration: The GoM has a solid
parliamentary majority to support accelerated integration with
the EU and NATO. Additionally, all parliamentary parties
strongly support EU membership. Although support for NATO lags
significantly behind, many of the loudest anti-NATO voices in
the current Parliament were not reelected.



--Multi-Ethnicity Over Nationalism: Multi-ethnic, civic parties
and coalitions did well, while parties and coalitions based
around nationalists principles lagged (with the exception of the
small Albanian parties). The multi-ethnic ruling coalition and
the SNP - while still primarily Serb, now an avowedly civic
party - made strong gains. The decline of the PzP was due to
internal schisms, not to the party's civic orientation.



--Decline of Serb Radicals: Related to above point, the overall
number of representatives of pro-Serb parties fell from 15 to
eight, and the Serb Radical Party and its allies fell out of
Parliament altogether. In addition, the new Parliament's only
Serb party, NOVA, has promised to pursue a more moderate line.
The issue of Kosovo independence did not feature prominently in
the pre-election campaign.



--More Constructive Opposition: The trend towards moderation,
along with the poor showing of the virulently anti-Djukanovic
PzP, bodes well for possible cooperation between the ruling
coalition and opposition on some key issues, particularly
European integration. The ruling coalition still needs the
opposition since certain decisions and legislation require a
two-thirds majority (54 out of 81 MPs) vote.



... And Not So Positive

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8. (SBU) However, on the negative side of the election ledger:




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--Weak Opposition, Weaker Democracy?: The coalition victory
means that the Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS),the senior
coalition partner, will have been in power continuously for
almost a quarter of a century by the time the next parliamentary
elections are held in 2013. While the DPS kept the country out
of the Yugoslav conflicts, forged a multi-ethnic, independent
state, and is aggressively integrating Montenegro into the
Euro-Atlantic community, the dominance of one political party
for so long raises concerns about the transparency and openness
of government.



-- The DPS-led Parliament is unlikely to check the
DPS-controlled Government, and the fragmented and weak
opposition will be hard-pressed to break the current chummy
relationship between government officials and leading
businesses. In the short term at least, pressure to strengthen
the rule of law, an Achilles heel for Montenegro, will need to
come from within the coalition and from a hitherto placid
population, as well as from the international community.
MOORE