Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09PODGORICA75
2009-03-30 12:09:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Podgorica
Cable title:
MONTENEGRO'S PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION: LANDSLIDE VICTORY FOR
how-toVZCZCXRO3726 OO RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDBU RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHLN RUEHLZ RUEHNP RUEHROV RUEHSK RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG DE RUEHPOD #0075/01 0891209 ZNR UUUUU ZZH O 301209Z MAR 09 FM AMEMBASSY PODGORICA TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1231 INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE RUEHPOD/AMEMBASSY PODGORICA 1319
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 PODGORICA 000075
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL MW
SUBJECT: MONTENEGRO'S PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION: LANDSLIDE VICTORY FOR
PRO-EUROPEAN RULING COALITION
REF: A. A: PODGORICA 74
B. B: PODGORICA 71
C. C: PODGORICA 65
PODGORICA 00000075 001.2 OF 003
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 PODGORICA 000075
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL MW
SUBJECT: MONTENEGRO'S PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION: LANDSLIDE VICTORY FOR
PRO-EUROPEAN RULING COALITION
REF: A. A: PODGORICA 74
B. B: PODGORICA 71
C. C: PODGORICA 65
PODGORICA 00000075 001.2 OF 003
1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Unofficial results have Montenegro's ruling
coalition winning more than 50 percent of the vote in the March
29 parliamentary election. With the exception of the
center-left Socialist People's Party, which doubled its seats
from the last election, and possibly an additional seat going to
an anti-GoM Albanian party, it was a bad day for the opposition.
The pro-Serb NOVA party and especially the centrist Movement
for Change (PzP) saw their totals shrink, while one small,
pro-Serb opposition coalition is on the cusp of the
parliamentary threshold. While the OSCE/ODIHR mission has not
yet released its assessment, no major irregularities were
reported on election day, and turnout was 65 percent. Overall,
the March 29 result was a vote for stability and the
continuation of Montenegro's Euro-Atlantic course. END SUMMARY.
Ruling Coalition Wins in Landslide
--------------
2. (U) As expected (Ref A),the "European Montenegro" coalition
- the Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) in an expanded
coalition with junior partner the Social Democratic Party (SDP)
and newcomers the Bosniak Party (BP) and the Croatian Civic
Initiative (HGI) - has won an easy victory in the March 29
parliamentary race. While official results have not yet been
announced, parallel vote counts conducted by two NGOs - the
Center for Democratic Transition (CDT) and Center for Monitoring
(CEMI) - both give the coalition just under 51 percent of the
vote. (Note: CDT has the coalition at 50.5 percent, CEMI at
50.7 percent. Both NGOs have proved accurate in past elections;
the CDT effort was funded by NDI.)
3. (U) The results assure the coalition a solid majority of
approximately 46-49 MPs - the final number depends on how many
parties cross the three percent threshold (see below) - in the
81-seat Parliament. The current DPS-SDP coalition, plus one HGI
MP who is part of the alliance, now has a slim, 41-MP majority.
Bad Day For Opposition
--------------
4. (U) The top opposition vote-getter was the Socialist People's
Party (SNP),which received 17 percent of the vote. This will
likely translate into 16 seats, an increase from eight that the
party now holds. Other than the SNP, it was not a good day for
opposition parties. The pro-Serb New Serbian Democracy (NOVA)
got nine percent of the vote; this should equal eight seats, but
is down from 11 seats the party currently holds in a wider
coalition of Serb parties. And predictions of the collapse of
the formerly leading opposition party - the Movement for Change
(PzP) - proved accurate. The PzP, which went through a damaging
schism earlier in the year (Ref C),picked up only six percent
of the vote, which would net the party only five seats in
Parliament (down from 11 currently).
NS-DSS On the Fence
--------------
5. (U) The number of seats the ruling coalition will receive
could change slightly if the People's Party-Democratic Serbian
Party (NS-DSS) coalition squeaks back into Parliament. Both the
CDT and CEMI counts put the pro-Serb coalition at three percent.
Should that figure hold up, the NS-DSS would get two seats (a
loss of one seat from their current three-MP total). If not,
those two seats would go to the ruling coalition.
6. (U) Two parties which pre-election polls predicted could
enter Parliament - the Democratic Center-Liberal Party coalition
and the Party of Pensioners - appear to have fallen short. The
PODGORICA 00000075 002.2 OF 003
vote counts put both at about 2.5 percent. The radical Serbian
National List received only 1.3 percent of the vote.
Albanian Seats: DPS Loses Ground?
--------------
7. (U) The only off note for the ruling coalition in an
otherwise bright day could be in the results of the five seats
elected from ballots cast in specially designated
Albanian-majority polling stations. The ruling coalition
currently controls two of these seats, with a third held by the
pro-GoM Democratic Union of Albanians (DUA). While the results
remain to be confirmed (and the vote is very close),the
parallel counts predict that the DPS likely will get only one
seat this time around. And while the DUA should retain its
mandate, the three other seats will be divided among the
opposition Democratic Alliance in Montenegro-Albanian List
coalition, the Albanian Coalition-Perspektiva alliance, and the
FORCA party.
Local Elections Mirror National Level
--------------
8. (U) Mayoral elections were held concurrently in Herceg Novi
and Tivat and elections for local councils were held in Niskic
and Budva. The incumbent mayors (SNP in Herceg Novi and DPS in
Tivat) won reelection, while the ruling coalition won easy
victories in both of the local council races.
Turnout: Lower than 2006
--------------
9. (U) According to the parallel vote counts, turnout was about
65 percent, down from 71 percent in 2006. Turnout may have been
affected by steady rain (and some snow in the north) that fell
in much of the country throughout election day, and by the lack
of drama in the race.
Election Day: Few Violations Reported
--------------
10. (SBU) Major irregularities were not expected on election day
(Ref B),and none were reported. (Note: Although PzP leader
Nebojsa Medojevic, who occasionally tends toward the dramatic,
claimed he was assaulted by a DPS supporter when casting his
vote; video of the incident does indicate an altercation of some
sort.) U.S. Embassy observers noted only a handful of very
minor infractions. Opposition parties were well represented on
polling commissions, and the State Election Commission
registered more than 1,200 domestic and international observers.
The OSCE/ODIHR election observation mission will announce its
evaluation of the campaign and vote this afternoon.
What's Next for Parliament, Government?
--------------
11. (U) According to the election law, the State Election
Commission must certify the official results of the election
within 15 days of election day. According to the Constitution,
the new Parliament must convene no later than 15 days after the
date of publication of the final results.
12. (U) According to the Constitution, President Vujanovic must
propose a new PM-designate within 30 days of the first seating
PODGORICA 00000075 003.2 OF 003
of the new Parliament. The PM-designate presents his program to
Parliament, and proposes the composition of the new Government.
The Parliament votes simultaneously on the PM's program and
government. (Note: The current GoM continues in an acting
capacity until the new GoM is elected.)
Comment
--------------
13. (SBU) In a low-key election which played out almost exactly
as predicted, Montenegrins voted overwhelmingly for stability
and a continuation of the country's Euro-Atlantic course.
(Note: Although with the caveat that public support for NATO
still lags far behind the consensus for EU membership.) The
ruling coalition rolled the dice - but with the odds stacked
heavily in its favor - that it would win another term before the
global economic crisis hit Montenegro full-force. Its payoff is
a solid majority in Parliament, which will select the next
government (which will in turn likely look very much like the
current one.)
14. (SBU) The SNP was the other big winner in the race,
capitalizing on divisions between opposition rivals NOVA and the
PzP. Overall, the opposition faired poorly: voters continued
to desert the PzP, which has been in free-fall for over a year,
and a schism within the Serb parties cost NOVA some votes.
Approximately ten percent of the vote went to opposition parties
falling short of the three percent parliamentary threshold. The
next Parliament therefore will contain fewer parties, but - with
a multi-ethnic ruling coalition and some of the more radical
Serbs failing to reenter Parliament - will likely be somewhat
more moderate.
MOORE
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL MW
SUBJECT: MONTENEGRO'S PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION: LANDSLIDE VICTORY FOR
PRO-EUROPEAN RULING COALITION
REF: A. A: PODGORICA 74
B. B: PODGORICA 71
C. C: PODGORICA 65
PODGORICA 00000075 001.2 OF 003
1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Unofficial results have Montenegro's ruling
coalition winning more than 50 percent of the vote in the March
29 parliamentary election. With the exception of the
center-left Socialist People's Party, which doubled its seats
from the last election, and possibly an additional seat going to
an anti-GoM Albanian party, it was a bad day for the opposition.
The pro-Serb NOVA party and especially the centrist Movement
for Change (PzP) saw their totals shrink, while one small,
pro-Serb opposition coalition is on the cusp of the
parliamentary threshold. While the OSCE/ODIHR mission has not
yet released its assessment, no major irregularities were
reported on election day, and turnout was 65 percent. Overall,
the March 29 result was a vote for stability and the
continuation of Montenegro's Euro-Atlantic course. END SUMMARY.
Ruling Coalition Wins in Landslide
--------------
2. (U) As expected (Ref A),the "European Montenegro" coalition
- the Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) in an expanded
coalition with junior partner the Social Democratic Party (SDP)
and newcomers the Bosniak Party (BP) and the Croatian Civic
Initiative (HGI) - has won an easy victory in the March 29
parliamentary race. While official results have not yet been
announced, parallel vote counts conducted by two NGOs - the
Center for Democratic Transition (CDT) and Center for Monitoring
(CEMI) - both give the coalition just under 51 percent of the
vote. (Note: CDT has the coalition at 50.5 percent, CEMI at
50.7 percent. Both NGOs have proved accurate in past elections;
the CDT effort was funded by NDI.)
3. (U) The results assure the coalition a solid majority of
approximately 46-49 MPs - the final number depends on how many
parties cross the three percent threshold (see below) - in the
81-seat Parliament. The current DPS-SDP coalition, plus one HGI
MP who is part of the alliance, now has a slim, 41-MP majority.
Bad Day For Opposition
--------------
4. (U) The top opposition vote-getter was the Socialist People's
Party (SNP),which received 17 percent of the vote. This will
likely translate into 16 seats, an increase from eight that the
party now holds. Other than the SNP, it was not a good day for
opposition parties. The pro-Serb New Serbian Democracy (NOVA)
got nine percent of the vote; this should equal eight seats, but
is down from 11 seats the party currently holds in a wider
coalition of Serb parties. And predictions of the collapse of
the formerly leading opposition party - the Movement for Change
(PzP) - proved accurate. The PzP, which went through a damaging
schism earlier in the year (Ref C),picked up only six percent
of the vote, which would net the party only five seats in
Parliament (down from 11 currently).
NS-DSS On the Fence
--------------
5. (U) The number of seats the ruling coalition will receive
could change slightly if the People's Party-Democratic Serbian
Party (NS-DSS) coalition squeaks back into Parliament. Both the
CDT and CEMI counts put the pro-Serb coalition at three percent.
Should that figure hold up, the NS-DSS would get two seats (a
loss of one seat from their current three-MP total). If not,
those two seats would go to the ruling coalition.
6. (U) Two parties which pre-election polls predicted could
enter Parliament - the Democratic Center-Liberal Party coalition
and the Party of Pensioners - appear to have fallen short. The
PODGORICA 00000075 002.2 OF 003
vote counts put both at about 2.5 percent. The radical Serbian
National List received only 1.3 percent of the vote.
Albanian Seats: DPS Loses Ground?
--------------
7. (U) The only off note for the ruling coalition in an
otherwise bright day could be in the results of the five seats
elected from ballots cast in specially designated
Albanian-majority polling stations. The ruling coalition
currently controls two of these seats, with a third held by the
pro-GoM Democratic Union of Albanians (DUA). While the results
remain to be confirmed (and the vote is very close),the
parallel counts predict that the DPS likely will get only one
seat this time around. And while the DUA should retain its
mandate, the three other seats will be divided among the
opposition Democratic Alliance in Montenegro-Albanian List
coalition, the Albanian Coalition-Perspektiva alliance, and the
FORCA party.
Local Elections Mirror National Level
--------------
8. (U) Mayoral elections were held concurrently in Herceg Novi
and Tivat and elections for local councils were held in Niskic
and Budva. The incumbent mayors (SNP in Herceg Novi and DPS in
Tivat) won reelection, while the ruling coalition won easy
victories in both of the local council races.
Turnout: Lower than 2006
--------------
9. (U) According to the parallel vote counts, turnout was about
65 percent, down from 71 percent in 2006. Turnout may have been
affected by steady rain (and some snow in the north) that fell
in much of the country throughout election day, and by the lack
of drama in the race.
Election Day: Few Violations Reported
--------------
10. (SBU) Major irregularities were not expected on election day
(Ref B),and none were reported. (Note: Although PzP leader
Nebojsa Medojevic, who occasionally tends toward the dramatic,
claimed he was assaulted by a DPS supporter when casting his
vote; video of the incident does indicate an altercation of some
sort.) U.S. Embassy observers noted only a handful of very
minor infractions. Opposition parties were well represented on
polling commissions, and the State Election Commission
registered more than 1,200 domestic and international observers.
The OSCE/ODIHR election observation mission will announce its
evaluation of the campaign and vote this afternoon.
What's Next for Parliament, Government?
--------------
11. (U) According to the election law, the State Election
Commission must certify the official results of the election
within 15 days of election day. According to the Constitution,
the new Parliament must convene no later than 15 days after the
date of publication of the final results.
12. (U) According to the Constitution, President Vujanovic must
propose a new PM-designate within 30 days of the first seating
PODGORICA 00000075 003.2 OF 003
of the new Parliament. The PM-designate presents his program to
Parliament, and proposes the composition of the new Government.
The Parliament votes simultaneously on the PM's program and
government. (Note: The current GoM continues in an acting
capacity until the new GoM is elected.)
Comment
--------------
13. (SBU) In a low-key election which played out almost exactly
as predicted, Montenegrins voted overwhelmingly for stability
and a continuation of the country's Euro-Atlantic course.
(Note: Although with the caveat that public support for NATO
still lags far behind the consensus for EU membership.) The
ruling coalition rolled the dice - but with the odds stacked
heavily in its favor - that it would win another term before the
global economic crisis hit Montenegro full-force. Its payoff is
a solid majority in Parliament, which will select the next
government (which will in turn likely look very much like the
current one.)
14. (SBU) The SNP was the other big winner in the race,
capitalizing on divisions between opposition rivals NOVA and the
PzP. Overall, the opposition faired poorly: voters continued
to desert the PzP, which has been in free-fall for over a year,
and a schism within the Serb parties cost NOVA some votes.
Approximately ten percent of the vote went to opposition parties
falling short of the three percent parliamentary threshold. The
next Parliament therefore will contain fewer parties, but - with
a multi-ethnic ruling coalition and some of the more radical
Serbs failing to reenter Parliament - will likely be somewhat
more moderate.
MOORE