Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09PODGORICA74
2009-03-27 10:51:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Podgorica
Cable title:  

RULING COALITION EXPECTED TO COAST TO VICTORY

Tags:  PGOV PREL MW 
pdf how-to read a cable
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RUEHLN RUEHLZ RUEHNP RUEHROV RUEHSK RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHPOD #0074/01 0861051
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 271051Z MAR 09
FM AMEMBASSY PODGORICA
INFO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1228
RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEHVEN/USMISSION USOSCE PRIORITY 0004
RUEHPOD/AMEMBASSY PODGORICA 1316
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 PODGORICA 000074 

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

FOR EUR/SCE AND INR/EUR

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL MW
SUBJECT: RULING COALITION EXPECTED TO COAST TO VICTORY

REF: A: PODGORICA 65; B: PODGORICA 47; C: PODGORICA 71; AND D: PODGORICA 46

PODGORICA 00000074 001.2 OF 003


UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 PODGORICA 000074

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

FOR EUR/SCE AND INR/EUR

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL MW
SUBJECT: RULING COALITION EXPECTED TO COAST TO VICTORY

REF: A: PODGORICA 65; B: PODGORICA 47; C: PODGORICA 71; AND D: PODGORICA 46

PODGORICA 00000074 001.2 OF 003



1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Montenegro's expanded Democratic Party of
Socialists - Social Democratic Party coalition is expecting a
landslide win in the March 29 election, with a solid
parliamentary majority well within reach. The out-financed and
fragmented opposition trails far behind, with only the three
strongest parties, the left-centrist Socialist People's Party
(SNP),the pro-Serb NOVA, and the civic Movement for Change
(PzP) assured a return to Parliament. Several other parties and
coalitions are hovering around the three percent parliamentary
threshold. Barring an eleventh-hour surprise (such as a surge
of votes for a radical Serb bloc),the next Parliament -- and
therefore the next government -- will look similar to the
current one, only less oppositionist, and possibly more
centrist. END SUMMARY.



Coalition Victory Expected

--------------




2. (SBU) With two days remaining before Montenegro's March 29
parliamentary election, the ruling Democratic Party of
Socialists (DPS),in an expanded coalition with long-time junior
partner the Social Democratic Party (SDP) and newcomers the
Bosniak Party (BS) and Croatian Civic Initiative (HGI),is
poised to win a landslide victory. According to a March 9-15
poll by the NGO CEDEM (which has been fairly accurate predicting
the results of previous elections),the so-called "European
Montenegro - Milo Djukanovic" coalition is supported by 51.2
percent of likely voters.



Leading Opposition Parties

--------------




3. (SBU) Trailing far behind is the fragmented opposition, which
failed to unite despite a flurry of highly publicized
initiatives at the beginning of the year. (Note: In total, 16
parties and coalitions are registered for the election). At
this point, only the three strongest opposition parties are
likely to return to Parliament. They are:



--The Socialist People's Party (SNP): The SNP has struggled to
reconcile its conservative, anti-independence, and largely Serb
base with leader Srdjan Milic's desire to create a modern, civic
party. After losing support steadily over several elections,
the SNP has gained back ground rapidly over the past year, in

part due to turmoil within its two main opposition rivals. The
SNP, which retains a strong organization throughout Montenegro,
presents itself as a responsible, pro-European party. According
to the CEDEM poll, 16.8 percent of Montenegrins support SNP.



--New Serbian Democracy (NOVA): Former second-place
presidential candidate Andrija Mandic recently transformed his
Serbian People's Party (SNS) -- the leading force within the
Serbian List alliance -- into NOVA. Mandic hopes that NOVA, by
downplaying Serb identity issues and focusing on improving the
quality of life of all Montenegrins, will expand his electorate.
The immediate effect, however, was to split the Serbian List,
and disgruntled new Serbian National List (SNL) coalition,
composed of the Serbian Radical Party and the Party of the
Serbian People, are now attacking Mandic for selling out Serb
interests. NOVA is still far and away the strongest Serb party,
but the discord could cut into its results. According to the
CEDEM poll (which some claim tends to underestimate support for
Serb parties),NOVA has 12 percent of the vote.



--Movement for Change (PzP): Once aspiring to be Montenegro's
leading opposition party, the centrist, multi-ethnic PzP has
plummeted in the polls following leader Nebojsa Medojevic's
disappointing third place showing the April 2008 presidential
race. In January (reftel A),several of the party's MPs and a
sizeable number of activists, disenchanted with Medojevic's
mercurial leadership and propensity to play to all sides on
major issues, split to form the Democratic Center (now allied

PODGORICA 00000074 002.2 OF 003


with the Liberal Party). The CEDEM poll, vigorously disputed by
PzP supporters, gives the party only 6.3 percent support (an IRI
poll, in the field in February before opposition parties had
decided against a pre-election coalition and before the campaign
had officially started, put PzP at 9.7 percent support among all
voters.)



Best of the Rest?

--------------




4. (SBU) The polls show only two other parties/coalitions on the
cusp of the parliamentary threshold:



--The Democratic Center - Liberal Party (DC-LP) alliance: The
former PzP-ites in the DC bill their new party as a
pro-Montenegrin, "third-way" alternative to the ruling coalition
and nationalist parties (in contrast to the PzP, which failed to
take a stance on independence and which recently has been chummy
with Mandic.) The Liberal Party is known for its skepticism of
NATO membership, but will anyway fold their party into the DC
(which is more open to the possibility of NATO) after the
election. CEDEM puts support for the DC-LP, which appears to
have some significant financial backing, at 2.9 percent (the IRI
poll has the combined total of the two parties at 3.3 percent).



--The Party of Pensioners and Disabled: According to CEDEM, the
Party, a new organization based on military veterans and
retirees concerned about the effects of the global economic
crisis, is supported by 3.5 percent of the population.
Skeptics, however, predict that the party's lack of
infrastructure and funding makes it likely to fade at the
finish.




5. (SBU) Among the remaining candidates, the pro-Serb People's
Party - Democratic Serbian Party (NS-DSS) coalition has polled
badly, but its constituent parties have three MPs in the current
Parliament and retain some infrastructure. The radical Serbian
National List, comprised of disgruntled former members of the
Serbian List, has made some noise during the campaign (often by
attacking NOVA) but has 1.6 percent support, according to the
CEDEM poll. With the exception of a new "Bosniaks and Muslims
Together" coalition (polling at 1.9 percent),other non-Albanian
parties/coalitions - including the radical Fatherland Serbian
Party and the Montenegrin Communist Party - barely register.



Albanian Parties

--------------




6. (SBU) Five of the 81 seats in Parliament are elected by votes
cast in approximately 70 majority-Albanian polling stations. In
the September 2006 election, the DPS won two of these seats,
while three small Albanian parties -- the pro-GoM Democratic
Union of Albanians (DUA) and the opposition Democratic Alliance
of Montenegro (DSCG) and Albanian Alternative (AA) -- garnered
an MP apiece. Observers predict that the ruling coalition will
retain its two seats (and could even gain a third, although that
is uncertain). The DUA should regain its one seat, but faces a
battle from three Albanian opposition parties.



Election Silence Begins

--------------




7. (U) The election silence begins at midnight on the evening of
March 27, and lasts until 9pm on March 29, when voting booths
close. According to the law, political parties are banned from
espousing political stances to the public during this period.



PODGORICA 00000074 003.2 OF 003



Comment

--------------




8. (SBU) The ruling coalition is the overwhelming favorite in
this low-key election, with the main drama centered around
whether it can gain an absolute majority of votes. Even if it
fails to achieve this, the coalition is still likely to get a
solid majority, since a number of votes will be "wasted" on
parties failing to clear the parliamentary threshold which will
in turn give winning parties proportionally more seats. A
secondary drama is unfolding for pride of place as leading
opposition party. Currently, the SNP appears likely to gain
seats, and PzP is likely to lose some. Barring an unlikely last
minute surprise, such as a surge of votes for the Serbian
National List -- polls sometimes underestimate Serb voters --
the return to Parliament of a now less-nationalistic NOVA (along
with the moderate SNP and PzP, and perhaps DC-LP) bodes well for
the centrist nature of the next Parliament. Otherwise, the new
Parliament is likely to look a lot like the current Parliament,
only with fewer opposition MPs.
MOORE