MONTENEGRIN ELECTION CAMPAIGN: SOME IRREGULARITIES, BUT

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SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL MW
SUBJECT: MONTENEGRIN ELECTION CAMPAIGN: SOME IRREGULARITIES, BUT
GENERALLY FREE AND FAIR (SO FAR)

REF: PODGORICA 47

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1. (SBU) SUMMARY: While noting certain irregularities,
international observers assess that Montenegro's election
process in advance of the March 29 parliamentary elections has
so far been generally free and fair and is more or less on a par
with last year's Presidential elections. As in previous
elections, opposition parties and a number of our own
interlocutors have accused the GoM and ruling coalition of
misusing state resources and pressuring state employees, and
many complain of the ruling coalition's overwhelming financial
advantage. The OSCE/ODIHR mission thus far has not
substantiated the more serious charges, but has identified a
strong pro-Government bias by both state and private TV news.
Nevertheless, opposition parties have been able to put out their
message via TV and print media and many political rallies of
varying sizes. To date the overall campaign has been low-key
and largely uneventful. END SUMMARY.



Some Controversy Over Legislation

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2. (U) Despite initial controversy over the constitutionality of
electoral legislation and suffrage eligibility (reftel),the
election will be run according to the current election law. The
OSCE/ODIHR mission believes there is nothing in existing
legislation that directly contradicts the Constitution or
European norms. The OSCE noted to us March 25, however, that it
is disappointed that Montenegro has not rectified certain minor
shortcomings identified in ODIHR's report on the 2008
Presidential elections and will again call for them to be
addressed after the upcoming elections. The OSCE also notes,
however, that the GoM has not contested the inclusion of
thousands of pro-Serb voters in the voting rolls whose
citizenship has not yet been regularized.



Few Doubts About Election Day Vote

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3. (U) Domestic and international experts have expressed few
concerns about the integrity of the vote on election day, as
Montenegro's election administration and voting safeguards have
earned good marks in past elections. In addition, OSCE/ODIHR
also will field more than 100 short and long-term observers, who
will be joined by approximately 500 local observers from the
Center for Democratic Transition (CDT) NGO, which will also
conduct a parallel vote tabulation (Note: CDT's election
activities are funded by NDI).



Campaign: A Low-Key Affair...

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4. (SBU) Overall, the campaign is being conducted in a peaceful,
low-key manner. All participants but one minor Serb party
signed a code of conduct and are generally abiding by it. We
have seen few reports of parties having problems arranging and
holding meetings and rallies, and advertising is in evidence on
TV, in print, and on billboards (although some opposition
parties complain of having difficulty renting the last).




5. (SBU) In terms of message, opposition parties are criticizing
the GoM for poor performance and corruption. In the face of the
global economic crisis, all parties are focusing on improving
the economy and quality of life, and all profess support for
Montenegro's European aspirations. A few (pro-Serb parties)
have criticized the GoM's recognition of Kosovo and have seized
on the 10th anniversary of the NATO intervention to criticize
NATO and oppose the GOM's NATO aspirations. The leading
pro-Serb party ("Nova") on 3/24 even advocated for the
disappearance of borders between Montenegro, Serbia, and
Republika Srpska.



...With Some Areas of Concern

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6. (SBU) Party representatives and a number of our interlocutors
have raised several g concerns about the campaign. Most, if not
all, of these concerns have been raised in previous elections in
Montenegro:



--Lack of adequate financing: Opposition representatives
complain that the funding each party/coalition will get from the
state budget (17,000 Euros) before election day, which was
reduced by the coalition-led Parliament, is inadequate to cover
campaign costs (and that many local activists have not seen any
of this money). They also charge that the DPS is flush with
cash from rental of buildings to the government.



--Abuse of state resources: The opposition has charged that the
GoM is using state vehicles and transport to campaign rallies.
They also point to a sharp increase in infrastructure projects,
and allege that DPS activists are promising voters jobs in state
enterprises. In another example, SNP officials in Rozaje told
us that municipal officials (belonging to the ruling Democratic
Party of Socialists (DPS)) had turned down their request to hold
a rally at a local school on the grounds that political events
should not be held in educational establishments. They were
furious to learn that the following night the DPS had hosted its
own rally at the same school.



--Pressure on State Employees: We also have heard accusations
from numerous sources that directors of state enterprises and
institutions are intimidating workers into voting for the ruling
coalition. In response to several stories about pressure on
schoolteachers, the Ministry of Education sent a letter to all
school principals in Montenegro warning that such actions were
illegal.



--Illegal Purchase of IDs: Opposition parties have claimed that
the DPS has been purchasing or "renting" voters' identity
documents in order to prevent them from voting, and possibly in
order to photo sub the documents.



--Bias in Broadcast Media: The election law guarantees access
to both free and paid TV time and print space, and state
broadcaster RTCG has granted a predetermined amount of airtime
to each registered party. However, opposition representatives
claim that the TV media is still slanted in its coverage toward
the government and ruling coalition; they also have complained
about the high price of some TV advertising.



ODIHR: Nothing Yet on Allegations...

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7. (SBU) Senior OSCE/ODIHR representatives have told us that the
mission is aggressively investigating allegations of
irregularities. However, to date they have not turned up any
hard evidence. Regarding ID buying, the ODIHR representative
noted that similar claims circulated widely during the 2008
presidential election campaign, but were not substantiated.



...But Definite Slant in TV News Coverage

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8. (SBU) However, OSCE/ODIHR's chief media analyst told the
diplomatic corps on March 17 that an analysis of Montenegro's
six main channels had uncovered a strong bias in TV news
coverage in favor of the GoM (and by extension, the ruling
coalition). Positive coverage of the activities of government
ministers and officials dominated news coverage on all stations,
including private ones, and was "well beyond what is

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reasonable," the analyst said. If anything, private channels
were even more slanted towards the GoM/coalition.



Comment

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9. (SBU) Senior OSCE officials have told us that they see
Montenegro's election process so far as "generally free and
fair" and on a par with last year's Presidential elections.
There is general confidence in the country's electoral
administration, and significant election day fraud seems very
unlikely. Given the governing parties' huge lead in the polls,
many observers have pointed out that the GoM has little
incentive to try to skew the vote - particularly given
international scrutiny in the wake of Montenegro's applications
for the EU and MAP.




10. (SBU) The allegations of ID buying and pressure on state
employees have thus far been largely unsubstantiated, although
we do not discount that the latter is occurring at some state
institutions and companies. More easily verifiable is the
alleged use of state resources for electoral advantage - and
here it is clear that the GoM has ratcheted up activities and
projects in a significant way. Also in evidence is the paucity
of criticism of the government on TV news. That said, outside
of news segments, TV stations have devoted ample time to
political talk shows and debates in which opposition viewpoints
are heard. Print media is also lively, as two of the three
major dailies are critical of the GoM.




11. (SBU) We also note that this campaign has been much more
subdued and less emotional than previous races. In part, this
is due to the fact that emotions surrounding many big issues -
independence, the Constitution, Kosovo recognition - have
diminished. Interlocutors also tell us that politicians and
voters alike are suffering from election fatigue. In addition,
the flat feeling to the campaign is also attributable to the
ruling coalition's overwhelming lead in the polls (over 50
percent according to a survey published March 18),and the
fractured, dispirited state of the opposition parties, several
of whom have recently undergone bitter schisms.
MOORE