MOVEMENT FOR CHANGE STUMBLES TOWARD ELECTION DAY

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SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL MW
SUBJECT: MOVEMENT FOR CHANGE STUMBLES TOWARD ELECTION DAY

REF: 08 PODGORICA 234

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1. (SBU) SUMMARY: The Movement for Change (PzP) lost its status
as Montenegro's leading opposition party following leader
Nebojsa Medojevic's third-place showing in the April 2008
presidential race. That defeat, the party's lack of coherent
message, and Medojevic's controlling management style all
contributed to a painful party schism in January, when several
MPs and an unknown number of members departed to form the
Democratic Center party (now running in alliance with the
Liberal Party). The PzP heads into the March 29 parliamentary
election with only six percent support, according to a March 18
poll, and its decline could leave a hole in Montenegro's
political center. END SUMMARY.



Sharp Drop in Polls~

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2. (SBU) Founded in 2006 as a pro-European alternative to the
ruling Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) and Serb
nationalists, the PzP was Montenegro's leading opposition party
after gaining 11 seats in its first election (in September
2006). However, party leader Nebojsa Medojevic's disappointing
third place showing in the April 2008 presidential race
precipitated a sharp drop in the PzP's poll numbers, from over
20 percent support in mid-2007 to less than ten percent today
(according to a March 18 poll by the respected NGO CEDEM, the
PzP is now supported by only six percent of likely voters).



~Leads to Sharp Break in Party

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3. (SBU) An extensive period of soul-searching following the
April presidential election also contributed to a schism within
the party: in January, former PzP Vice President Goran
Batricevic, three other PzP MPs, and an unknown number of party
activists split to form the Democratic Center party (which is
running in alliance with the Liberal Party in the parliamentary
election race).




4. (SBU) In recent conversations, Batricevic and other former
party members pointed to two primary reasons for the schism:



--First, they disagreed with Medojevic over the party's
strategic course. Critics have long accused Medojevic of
putting political expediency ahead of principles, and in fact
several of the party's founders left in 2006 when Medojevic -
seeking not to offend Serb voters - declined to explicitly back
Montenegrin independence. Several PzP members and sympathizers
told us they were unhappy with Medojevic's peripatetic
presidential campaign - in which he tried to be all things to
all voters on Kosovo and other issues, and engaged in hyperbolic
rhetoric about drug dealers running the country. Batricevic
said the last straw was when Medojevic threw in his lot with
Serb nationalists by appearing at an October 2008 protest
against the GoM's recognition of Kosovo.



--Second, they objected to Medojevic's propensity to take
decisions without consulting other party leaders. One former
PzP MP and presidency member told us that Medojevic's management
style, rather than any single incident (although "defeat
sharpens all disagreements"),was the problem. "I simply got
tired of learning of party decisions from the newspaper," the MP
said. Batricevic said he had tried to establish a political
council - a core group within the party's presidency - to rein
in Medojevic, but had been outvoted by Medojevic supporters.




5. (SBU) For their part, Medojevic loyalists claim that
Batricevic and his allies were trying to move the PzP out of the
opposition. MP and party spokesman Koca Pavlovic claimed to us
that the splinter group was funded by daily newspaper
"Vijesti's" financial backers, who were looking to make peace
with the DPS after vociferously opposing the GoM. (According to
Pavlovic, the "Vijesti" group, which included editor Zeljko
Ivanovic, had found themselves shut out of commercial deals.)

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How Bad is the Damage?

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6. (SBU) By most accounts, the schism has seriously hurt the
party. One former PzP MP told us that seven members of the
17-person party presidency had left, and another source close to
the party claimed that PzP functionaries in Podgorica and
Niksic, Montenegro's two largest municipalities, would defect en
masse to the Democratic Center. And an MP from another party
told us in February that a Medojevic loyalist had conceded to
him privately that half the party's members were on the fence
over whether to remain. (Note: Batricevic was much less
confident. "While 90 percent of the party supports me," he told
us, "I don't expect many to leave.")




7. (SBU) Furthermore, our interlocutors both within and close to
the party tell us that remaining PzP members and supporters are
exhausted and dispirited after a year of setbacks and the bitter
rift with Batricevic and his group. For the parliamentary
election campaign, this has affected both fund-raising - a
critical issue for a party which borrowed heavily to promote
Medojevic's presidential run, and whose coffers are now bare -
and also the enthusiasm and willingness of PzP cadres to throw
themselves into promoting their party.



Comment

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8. (SBU) With less than two weeks remaining before election
day, the PzP probably has enough gas in the tank to return to
Parliament, but the sleek, gleaming vehicle that excited
younger, moderate Montenegrins in 2006 and 2007 is now a
battered clunker. In the course of the past year and a half,
the party has managed to alienate potential supporters and
members alike with its lack of a clear strategic vision and
highly centralized decision-making. At the heart of the
controversy over both policy and management is the mercurial and
controlling Medojevic, now running a similar parliamentary
election campaign - focusing on corruption and allegations of
fraud - as in his unsuccessful presidential race.




9. (SBU) With the PzP in decline, the mantle of centrist,
opposition leadership has passed to the Socialist People's Party
(SNP),which is poised to make big gains on March 29 but is
still struggling to reconcile a more centrist, civic wing with
older, Serb, and pro-Yugoslav members. Some former PzP
supporters will gravitate toward the Democratic Center - Liberal
Party coalition, but it is unclear whether this alliance will
make it over the three percent hurdle to enter Parliament (the
March 18 CEDEM survey gives it 2.9 percent support). The bottom
line is Montenegro's moderate opposition will remain fractured
and weak in the next Parliament.
MOORE