MONTENEGRO'S SPRINT TO NATO SUMMIT

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SUBJECT: MONTENEGRO'S SPRINT TO NATO SUMMIT

REF: (A) 08 STATE 83856 (B) PODGORICA 26 (C) PODGORICA 56 (D) 08 PODGORICA 289
(E) PODGORICA 49

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1. (SBU) Summary: Montenegro's government has stepped up its
campaign to promote its NATO-related priorities. A round of
meetings with NAC ambassadors in mid-February indicated to GoM
officials that most member states have a positive view of
Montenegro's progress, but some skeptics remain. The MFA admits
that it has not succeeded in drawing attention to progress in
civilian priorities, particularly the rule of law, despite some
recent successes. The challenge for NATO will be to encourage
the GoM to keep up the momentum for reforms past the April
summit. End Summary.




2. (SBU) Charge met on 26 February with an official from the
senior ranks of the MFA for an informal conversation on the
progress of Montenegro's NATO integration efforts. The
discussion focused on Montenegro's priorities in the civilian
sector, primarily rule of law and public opinion (Ref A). The
official also described the results of a GoM visit to NATO
missions in Brussels 17-18 February, commenting that most
missions seemed to have a positive view of Montenegro's progress
toward NATO. He acknowledged, however, that it had been even
more difficult to focus attention on Montenegro than the
delegation expected.




3. (SBU) In addition to meeting with NATO international staff,
the Montenegrins called on NAC ambassadors representing Italy,
Netherlands, Luxembourg, United Kingdom, Slovenia, Greece,
Bulgaria, Norway, Croatia and France, along with representatives
of Germany and USNATO. MFA officials also met with their
counterparts at the Belgian MFA. Charge's contact mentioned
that Belgium, Holland and France seemed to be least supportive
during this round of meetings.




4. (SBU) The MFA official went on to say that the apparently
positive IPAP and PARP assessments had strengthened Montenegro's
hand. The assessments, he said, identified substantive progress
worthy of substantive recognition by NATO. He emphasized that
Montenegro has made considerably greater progress than other new
aspirants and should be considered strictly on its own merits
rather than as part of a bloc.




5. (SBU) The official pointed out that, in strategic terms, one
of Montenegro's greatest contributions is its continuing role in
building regional stability. Among the Balkan countries, he
noted, Montenegro has the best relations with all of its
neighbors, even with Serbia. Without elaborating, he asserted
that Montenegro's relations with Serbia can improve relatively
quickly. He also reiterated the GoM's readiness to establish
full diplomatic relations with Kosovo soon (Ref B). In his
view, it is incumbent on Montenegro to build good relationships
with all its neighbors, not just for the sake of external
security but to contribute to stability internally, among its
various ethnic groups.




6. (SBU) Regarding Montenegro's rule of law priorities, he noted
public statements by the Ministry of Justice regarding steps to
finalize the new Criminal Procedure Code, as well as a planned
interagency agreement to establish an organized crime task force
(Ref C). He admitted that he and others in the MFA were still
learning about these developments and that the MFA must do more
to highlight for NATO member governments GoM actions to overhaul
its criminal justice system and curb organized crime.




7. (SBU) Regarding public opinion, the official said he believes
support for eventual NATO membership is increasing, perhaps to
as much as 40 percent. He acknowledged that he had no new poll
data to verify his claim, but commented that different polls
have produced varying results - from 25 to over 50 percent
support. He believes that the GoM's publicity campaign is
building support among younger, urban and more educated
citizens, particularly as understanding grows of the
relationship between standards for NATO and EU membership. He
added that the majority of Montenegrins either support NATO or
remain apathetic, in the latter case because they lack knowledge
about the Alliance. A small minority of hard core of
pro-Serbian opponents, he said, will likely remain for the long

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term.




8. (SBU) In discussions with the DATT the same week, the
Ministry of Defense (MoD) agreed on timing for the airlift of
three rotations of Montenegrin infantry to participate in ISAF,
beginning in November 2009. At this point, the MoD envisions
these units will have a fixed-site security mission. (Note: The
Minister's public comments on the potential deployment of
infantry units have received scarce press coverage to date.)
In addition, the MoD is considering assigning two mid-ranking
officers for 12-month tours as liaison to ISAF, coordinating
support for the infantry units. The MoD confirmed that a
three-person medical team is expected to deploy in August after
completing training.




9. (SBU) Comment: As the NATO summit draws closer, the pace of
GoM efforts has increased. The lobbying campaign will culminate
next week, when PM Djukanovic, accompanied by the Ministers of
Foreign Affairs and Defense, is scheduled to meet with the NAC.
With regard to the three rule of law reforms identified as
priorities last fall - enactment of a new Criminal Procedure
Code, establishment of an organized crime task force, and steps
to crack down on conflicts of interest (Refs D and E) -- the GoM
has addressed all three, though not flawlessly, and not yet as
thoroughly as we would like. It is clear that the GoM's desire
for closer links with NATO (and the EU) has stimulated a wide
range of actions, including progress in the USG's eleven
priority areas. The challenge for us, along with our NATO
allies, will be to help Montenegro keep up this momentum. End
Comment.
KONTOS