MANDIC'S NEW PARTY SPLITS SERB POLITICAL SPECTRUM

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SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

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TAGS: PGOV MW
SUBJECT: MANDIC'S NEW PARTY SPLITS SERB POLITICAL SPECTRUM

REF: 08 PODGORICA 106

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1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Andrija Mandic, the most prominent Serb
political leader in Montenegro, has created a new party, New
Serbian Democracy (known as NOVA),which aspires not only to
unite all Serb organizations but also to attract non-Serb
voters. Instead, amidst accusations that Mandic sold out his
nationalist principles, NOVA has split Mandic's Serbian List
alliance, and Mandic now has little time before the March 29
election to remake his image to appeal to the broader
electorate. The jettisoning of radical Serb elements makes it
easier for Mandic to work with the other major opposition
parties and positions him to play a more constructive opposition
role in the long term. However, in the near term it is not clear
that NOVA will be able to garner the same level of support that
Serbian List did in 2006. END SUMMARY.



All Serbs in One (Civic?) Party

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2. (SBU) Rabble-rousing Serb nationalist Andrija Mandic
surprised many observers in December when he announced that he
would seek to unify all Serb organizations into a single party,
which, he said, would appeal to non-Serbs as well as Serbs. At
the time, Mandic also said he opposed treating Serbs as a
minority - rather, Serbs were a constituent people of Montenegro
- and proposed dropping the word "Serb" from the name of the new
party (he eventually backed down). In a radical shift for such
a fierce opponent of Montenegrin statehood, he also said the new
party would "respect" Montenegrin independence and hinted that
he could cooperate with Movement for Change (PzP) leader Nebojsa
Medojevic, vilified by many Serbs for supporting the new
Constitution (which some Serbs believe demeans their identity).




3. (U) Mandic's new party, New Serbian Democracy (known as
NOVA),held its founding congress on January 24. (Note: Until
the congress, Mandic had headed the Serbian List (SL) alliance,
which consisted of Mandic's previous party, the Socialist
People's Party (SNS),and the smaller Party of Democratic Unity
(SDJ),the People's Socialist Party (NSS),the Serb Radical
Party (SSR),and two NGOs.)



Expanding the Base

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4. (SBU) Mandic told us on the eve of NOVA's congress that his
presidential run - during which, in a preview of his current
initiative, he downplaying Serb identity issues (reftel) - had
shown that his support was limited to the roughly one-third of
the population who identify themselves as Serbs. In order to
compete with the ruling Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS),he
needed to create a new vehicle that could appeal to Montenegrins
and others as well as Serbs. NOVA would accept the fact that
Montenegro was an independent state (despite irregularities in
the referendum) and focus on issues broader than those related
to Serb identity. "We will reject those (in his former party
and bloc) who cannot deal with this," he told us, "and move
forward. We hope to pick up more voters than we lose." On
February 18 he reiterated this point, telling us that quality of
life and economic issues would be the focus of NOVA's election
message.



New Project Splits Serbs

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5. (SBU) Mandic's initiative caused an uproar within the Serbian
List. In December, Dusko Sekulic, leader of the Serb Radical
Party, and Momcilo Vuksanovic, a Serbian List MP who had just
formed the Serb National Council (an umbrella organization for
Serbs created under the auspices of the Law on Minorities)
accused Mandic of creating a "pro-American puppet party, which
is siding with the PzP..." They formed a separate parliamentary
caucus, the "Serbian National Club," and a coalition, the
"Serbian National List," to compete in the election. SDJ leader
Zoran Zizic also told us he would not fold his party into NOVA
unless all other Serbian List members did so. (In the end, from

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the SL, only the NSS joined NOVA.)




6. (SBU) Mandic also encountered difficulties in recruiting
other (non-SL) Serb parties to NOVA. Democratic Serbian
People's Party (DSS) leader Ranko Kadic told us recently that
negotiations broke down when Mandic declined to take a firm
stance on reunification with Serbia (which DSS supports) and
(according to Kadic) refused to categorically rule out
cooperation with the GoM.




7. (SBU) Finally, Mandic also encountered opposition within his
own (former) party, the SNS. His proposal to eliminate the word
"Serb" from the title of the new party was particularly
unpopular, but former SNS Executive Board director Gojko
Raicevic also recently told us that his (Raicevic's)
reservations dated from Mandic's presidential run - which
Raicevic said did not pay enough attention to Serb rights.
Raicevic said the final straw was Mandic's refusal to support
the Serb National Council. "I have stayed true to the (SNS's)
platform," Raicevic told us, "Mandic who has not." Raicevic,
SNS Deputy Head Novak Radulovic (who joined the Serbian National
List),SNS spokesman Dobrilo Dedejic (who formed a new party,
the Serbian People's Party) and several other prominent SNS
leaders all declined to participate in NOVA.



Comment

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8. (SBU) Mandic, who is much more pragmatic and opportunistic
than his reputation and public statements might indicate,
appears to have calculated that NOVA can expand his electorate
in the long run. Many also contend that Mandic is taking his
cues from the split in the Serb Radical Party in Belgrade (while
others believe is simply attempting to impose order on his often
fractious Serb List partners).




9. (SBU) In the short term, however, it is not clear that NOVA
helps Mandic's electoral prospects. The electorate knows Mandic
as a Serb nationalist, and he has little time before March 29 to
rebrand himself as a more inclusive political leader. In
addition, his about-face on Montenegrin independence and the
controversy over the name of the new party are likely to
disorient some supporters. Finally, Mandic's initiative
acrimoniously split the Serbian List, creating several new
organizations which will compete against him in the election.
Mandic has increased the prospects for a future opposition
alliance with the PzP and Socialist People's Party (SNP) by
jettisoning radical elements in his party and bloc. But it
remains to be seen whether NOVA can match the Serbian List's
vote totals (14.4 percent) from the last election (in September
2006).
KONTOS