NEW DPS GOVERNMENT LIKELY TO LOOK A LOT LIKE OLD DPS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 PODGORICA 000032

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PINR MW
SUBJECT: NEW DPS GOVERNMENT LIKELY TO LOOK A LOT LIKE OLD DPS
GOVERNMENT

REF: PODGORICA 23

PODGORICA 00000032 001.2 OF 004



1. (SBU) SUMMARY: With pre-term parliamentary elections set for
March 29 (reftel) and Prime Minister Djukanovic's Democratic
Party of Socialists (DPS) the favorite to return to power, key
cabinet members are already jostling for a spot in the next
government. While there is plenty of speculation that
Djukanovic is grooming newly appointed Deputy Prime Minister
Luksic to replace him, a DPS victory would likely see many of
the same faces continue in power. This message, the first in a
series on the upcoming parliamentary elections, provides
biographic details on the key figures in the DPS. END SUMMARY.




2. (SBU) Following the Parliament's January 26 vote to curtail
its mandate, President Vujanovic announced that new elections
will be held March 29 (reftel). The heavy favorite remains the
Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) - Social Democratic Party
(SDP) coalition. Should this coalition return to power, we
expect a number of key figures from both parties to reenter the
new government; this cable takes a look at some of the top
players in the DPS, the senior coalition partner.



THE ONE TO WATCH?

--------------




3. (SBU) The promotion of Finance Minister Igor Luksic to Deputy
Prime Minister on December 26, 2008 has fueled widespread
speculation that Djukanovic is positioning Luksic to succeed him
as the next Prime Minister. The youthful Luksic, long a
Djukanovic favorite, has been Minister of Finance since 2004 and
a member of the DPS presidency since 2000. Luksic was rumored to
be a leading candidate for the PM slot in 2006, but reportedly
lost out because of concerns regarding his relative inexperience
and local media speculation that he had strong ties to Russia.
(Note: Instead another DPS presidency member, Zeljko Sturanovic,
untouched by the corruption charges that have plagued many DPS
leaders, was made PM in 2006; he stepped down for health reason
is February 2008. End Note.)




4. (U) Luksic was born in 1976 in Bar, Montenegro. He graduated
from the Faculty of Economics in Podgorica in 1998 and earned a
Master's Degree from the same school in 2002. Luksic attended
various international specialization courses, including one at
the Diplomatic Academy in Vienna in 1999. In his short career,
Luksic served as Secretary of the MFA, and in 2003 as public
relations advisor to Djukanovic (who was also PM at the time),
who helped Luksic become Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of
Serbia and Montenegro in 2003. Luksic also served two terms as
an MP in Montenegro's Parliament. He has published several
professional papers and books as well as a book of poetry and
prose. He is married and has no children, and speaks excellent
English, as well as French and Italian.



THE DPS INNER CIRCLE

--------------




5. (SBU) The following individuals are considered to be part of
the DPS inner circle, and will be key decision makers whether
they stay in government or not:



--Milan Rocen, Minister of Foreign Affairs. Rocen was born on
November 23, 1950 in Zabljak, Montenegro. He graduated from the
Faculty of Political Science in Belgrade and was a journalist
for the magazine "Ekonomska Politika" in Belgrade (1976-79). In
the 1980s he worked his way up in the Central Committee of the
League of Communists of Montenegro, first in the Information and
Propaganda Department(1979-82) and then as Political Chief of
Staff to the Central Committee President (1982-88). Rocen was
Montenegro's Deputy Foreign Minister (1988-92) before serving as
Minister Counselor (1992-97) and Charge d'Affaires (1993-94) at
the Yugoslav Embassy in Moscow. From 1997-2003, Rocen was
Djukanovic's Foreign Policy Advisor and then Chief Political
Advisor before returning to Moscow as Ambassador of Serbia and
Montenegro (2003-2006). Rocen and his wife, Stana, have one son,
Filip. He speaks Russian fluently, but little English.


PODGORICA 00000032 002.2 OF 004




-- Branimir Gvozdenovic, Minister for Economic Development.
Gvozdenovic, a member of the DPS presidency, became Minister in
November 2006 after serving as Deputy Prime Minister for
Economic Policy and Development from 2003 to 2006. He was born
in 1961 in Bar and graduated from the Electro-Technical Faculty
in Podgorica. Utilizing his IT skills, Gvozdenovic then worked
his way up in the government, first as a programmer for the
Information Committee (1986-98),then as Advisor for Development
of Information System in the Secretariat for Development
(1989-90),Senior Adviser for Informatics in the Development
Bureau (1990-1991),Assistant Director of the Republican
Development Bureau (1991-95),and Assistant Secretary of the
Republican Secretariat for Development (1995-99). In 1999,
Gvozdenovic became Director of Montenegro's postal service, and
in 2002 he served as Acting Minister of Maritime Affairs. From
2002-2003 he was Mayor of Bar Municipality and from 2002-2005 he
was President of the Board of Directors of Montenegro's Electric
Power Company. In 2003 he served as Acting Minister of Tourism.
Gvozdenovic is married and has two children. He speaks some
English, but is uncomfortable using it in official meetings.



-- Milutin Simovic, Minister of Agriculture, Forestry, and Water
Management. A member of the DPS presidency and Agriculture
Minister since 1998, Simovic has a strong academic and
professional background in agriculture. He was born on December
29, 1961 in Niksic, and graduated from the Agricultural Faculty
in Novi Sad, Serbia, where he obtained a Master's Degree in

1991. In 1986 he began working at the Agricultural Institute in
Podgorica, where he was promoted to Science Assistant in 1990,
and Senior Researcher in 1991. Simovic is a member of the
Society of Agricultural Engineers and Technicians of Montenegro,
and has published scientific papers and attended several expert
courses in Holland. He is married and has two children. He
does not speak English.



-- Boro Vucinic, Minister of Defense. Vucinic became Minister in
November 2006 despite having no defense or military related
experience. A long-standing DPS member, he served as Minister
for Environment and Urban Planning in the previous cabinet and
also was a member of the DPS presidency until 2007. (Note:
Vucinic was not reelected to the presidency at the DPS's May
2007 congress; this was reportedly at his own request, and he
continues to maintain close ties to the DPS leadership. End
Note.)



-- Vucinic was born in 1954 in Podgorica. He graduated from the
Faculty of Law in Podgorica in 1978 and received an MA from the
same university in 2005. Vucinic started his career at the
Titograd Civil Engineering Organization (a building company) and
then worked for Podgorica municipal bodies including as head of
administration of public revenues and as Deputy Mayor of
Podgorica Municipality. He also served as a councilor in the
Podgorica municipal assembly and as an MP in the Parliament of
Montenegro, where he served on committees dealing with
legislation and the constitutional charter of Serbia and
Montenegro. Vucinic also has led various sports committees; he
was president of the Target Shooting Association of Yugoslavia,
first president of the Montenegrin Olympic committee, and vice
president of Yugoslav Olympic Committee. He is married and has
four children. He has been studying English and now has basic
conversational skills but good comprehension.



-- Miodrag Radunovic, Minister of Health, Labor, and Social
Welfare. Minister since November 2006, Radunovic is also a
member of the DPS presidency. Radunovic was born on October 9,
1959 in Berane, Montenegro. He attended elementary and
secondary school in Berane and graduated from the Medical
Faculty in Nis, Serbia. Radunovic specialized in general
surgery at the Medical Faculty in Belgrade and has attended
surgical training in both Serbia and Montenegro. He worked at
the health care center in Berane (1982-1984) and in the surgical
department of the Berane General Hospital (1984-1997). From
1998-2003 he was Director of the Public Health Institution at
the General Hospital in Berane. From 2004-2006 Radunovic worked
in surgery clinics at the Clinical Center of Podgorica.
Radunovic has participated in international conventions on
surgery and SFRY surgical congresses. He is married and has one
child. He speaks English and German.




PODGORICA 00000032 003.2 OF 004


-- Suad Numanovic, Minister without Portfolio. Numanovic,
Minister since 2003, is arguably the DPS's most prominent Muslim
leader, with strong ties to northern Montenegro. Numanovic was
born in 1960 in Bijelo Polje (northern Montenegro) and graduated
from the Faculty of Medicine there. Numanovic, who specializes
in internal medicine, worked at the hospital in Bijelo Polje and
was Director of the medical center in Bijelo Polje from
2001-2003. He has served as a president of the DPS Bijelo Polje
municipal board, and also served as President of the Government
Commissions for Housing Issues, the Government Personal
Commission, and the Government Commission for Natural Hazards
Damage Assessment. He is married and has four children; he does
not speak English.



-- Svetozar Marovic, DPS Vice President. A DPS insider and
Djukanovic confidant, Marovic has concentrated on party business
(and his own personal business interests) since September 2006,
when he resigned from his seat in Parliament. He had served as
the first and last President of the State Union of Serbia and
Montenegro from March 2003 until Montenegro's independence
referendum in May 2006. Since leaving the government, Marovic
has become a major player in Montenegro's rapidly developing
economy, including in the real estate sector in Budva. Recently
he has been taking a more public role in the DPS, and some
pundits speculate that he may be looking to return to the
government after the elections.



-- Marovic was born in Kotor in 1955, but grew up in Budva and
considers Budva his hometown. He graduated from the Faculty of
Law in Podgorica and has practiced law in Budva. He began his
political career early, serving in numerous local and state
level government positions, including as President of the
Alliance of Socialist Youth Budva and as President of the
Socialist Youth Alliance of Montenegro. Marovic considers
himself a philosopher and has written several books widely
published in Serbia and Montenegro. He and his wife Djana have
two children, Milos and Milena. Marovic speaks English,
Italian, and Russian.



THE TECHNOCRATS

--------------




6. (SBU) The following individuals are DPS members, not in the
DPS leadership, who have proven themselves to be indispensable
to the work of the current government. It is likely that they
will find a place in the next government:



-- Gordana Djurovic, Deputy Prime Minister for European
Integration. Appointed in November 2006, Djurovic is one of the
hardest working members of the government. She heads the task
force which oversees the implementation of the GoM's Action Plan
to combat organized crime and corruption and has spearheaded the
GoM's efforts to join the WTO, as well as the EU. Djurovic was
previously Minister for International Economic Relations and
European Integration of Montenegro from 2003 to 2006. She was
born in Novi Knezevac (Vojvodina, Serbia) in 1964, where she
attended primary school. She graduated from the Secondary School
of Economics in Herceg Novi, Montenegro, in 1982, and in 1986
from the Faculty of Economics in Belgrade. Djurovic received
her Master's Degree in 1991 from the Faculty of Economics in
Podgorica in comparative analysis of modern economic systems,
and earned a PhD from the same faculty in the field of economic
development planning in transition countries.



-- Djurovic was associate vice-dean for scientific research at
the Faculty of Economics in Podgorica (1998-2000),and Head of
the Department of Economic Policy of the same faculty. She is
currently a professor at the Faculty, teaching undergraduate
courses in economic development, international economic
relations, and regional economy. Djurovic also is head of
postgraduate studies in European economic integration and
teaches the economics of the EU and enlargement policy. She is
a member of the DPS, but tells us that she prefers to avoid
"politics." She is married and has two sons. Djurovic speaks
excellent English.




PODGORICA 00000032 004.2 OF 004


-- Predrag Nenezic, Minister of Tourism and Environmental
Protection. Nenezic was appointed Minister in November 2006, as
after having been Minister of Tourism since 2001. He was born in
1970 in Cetinje and was raised in Kotor. He attended primary
and secondary schools in Frankfurt, Germany, where his father
represented a Montenegrin Bank. After returning to Montenegro,
Predrag Nenezic worked as a tour guide and graduated from the
Faculty of Economics in Podgorica in 1994. In 1995, he joined
the Agency for Economic Restructuring and was promoted to
Manager of the Privatization Department of the Government
Development Fund. In 1999, he was appointed Advisor to the Prime
Minister for International Economic Affairs.



-- Since 2002, Nenezic has chaired the Tender Commission for
Privatization of Hotel and Tourism Assets. He also has served on
the Board of Montenegro Airlines and as Chairman of the Board of
the Public Coastal Area Management Company. He has twice been
elected to the Parliament. Nenezic currently is pursuing post
graduate studies in management and international relations. He
is unmarried, and is fluent in English and German.



COMMENT

--------------




7. (SBU) The DPS insiders in the current cabinet are likely to
return in a future government, though possibly with different
titles. The most important position - Prime Minister - may be
up for grabs. Several DPS insiders claim that Djukanovic plans
to step out of the political spotlight - again - following the
election. However others in the party say this is unlikely, or
that if Djukanovic does step down, he is more likely to do so
mid-term. Should Djukanovic step down, many of our contacts
believe Luksic is the most likely successor. A wildcard could
be Marovic, a heavy-hitter with a serious political resume. End
comment.
MOORE