Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09PODGORICA216
2009-10-29 14:28:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Podgorica
Cable title:  

MONTENEGRO'S PLANS TO ESTABLISH DIPLOMATIC RELATIONS WITH

Tags:  PREL PGOV MW 
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RUEHPOD/AMEMBASSY PODGORICA 1574
UNCLAS PODGORICA 000216

SENSITIVE
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E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV MW
SUBJECT: MONTENEGRO'S PLANS TO ESTABLISH DIPLOMATIC RELATIONS WITH
KOSOVO

SUMMARY: Senior GOM officials have told us that Montenegro
will establish diplomatic relations with Kosovo by the end of
the year. Any GOM move in this direction is unlikely to occur
before a possible visit by Serbian President Tadic in November.
END SUMMARY



Senior GOM officials have told us in recent days of Montenegro's
plans to establish diplomatic relations with Kosovo before the
end of 2009. The GOM said it had consulted with Macedonia
about taking this step simultaneously - just as the two
countries had synchronized their recognitions of Kosovo - and
was taken by surprise when Macedonia and Kosovo announced
diplomatic relations earlier this month.



So far, questions that have recently arisen in Kosovo about
demarcation of the common border in the region of Pec-Rozaje
have not knocked the GOM off stride. The Foreign Minister has
so far tried to play down this issue, twice declaring in public
that the GOM has received no official notification from
Pristina. He has attributed the border claims to local citizens
in Kosovo and has stressed Podgorica's intention not to
"politicize" the issue.



Meanwhile, senior GOM sources have told us that they hope to
send an Ambassador to Belgrade in the coming weeks (Serbia
expelled Montenegro's former Ambassador to Belgrade after
Montenegro's recognition of Kosovo in October 2008). Moreover,
several sources have told us that Serbian President Tadic is be
planning a visit to Montenegro in the latter half of November.
Interestingly, the GOM has assured us that Serbia has not, at
least not yet, sent any warnings to Podgorica regarding
diplomatic relations with Kosovo.



Comment: The GOM is trying to find the optimal time for taking
the sensitive - and still domestically unpopular -- step of
establishing diplomatic relations with Kosovo. On the one
hand, as senior GOM officials have said in public, it would be
natural for Montenegro to exchange ambassadors with a
neighboring country it recognizes. Montenegro might also be
motivated to take this step in the context of possible
high-level interactions with the U.S. and other Western partners
and as NATO Allies appraise Montenegro's MAP application in the
run-up to the December Ministerial.



On the other hand, Podgorica is mindful of its relationship with
Serbia. Given Serbia's strong reaction to recognition in
October 2008, it seems highly doubtful that Podgorica would
establish diplomatic relations with Pristina prior to a possible
Tadic visit. Such a visit - on top of President Vujanovic's
visit to Serbia in May, Tadic's participation in a regional
meeting in Montenegro in June, and Serbian PM Cvetkovic's
one-day trip to Montenegro last week -- would be an important
step in putting the bilateral relationship on a more positive
and solid footing, something eagerly sought by the GOM.
Moreover, the GOM might be watching the timing of oral arguments
in the ICJ-Kosovo case. In light of Montenegro's recognition
of Kosovo almost immediately after the UNGA referred Kosovo to
the ICJ a year ago, Podgorica might wish to avoid timing another
important decision vis-a-vis Kosovo and the ICJ that could be
interpreted as hostile by Serbia.



In the meantime, it would be damaging for the prospects of an
early establishment of diplomatic relations if Kosovo officially
raises border issues with Montenegro. Without prejudging the
border issue, it would be far preferable that any possible
border questions be discussed among two equal partners that
enjoy normal diplomatic relations. Otherwise, border issues
could be used as a pretext by Montenegro to delay the
establishment of diplomatic relations until they are resolved.

MOORE