MALAKAND DIVISION: FIGHTING IN SWAT BUT "NO OPERATION" YET

C O N F I D E N T I A L PESHAWAR 000097


E.O. 12958: DECL: 5/7/2019
TAGS: MOPS PREF PTER PGOV EAID PK
SUBJECT: MALAKAND DIVISION: FIGHTING IN SWAT BUT "NO OPERATION" YET

CLASSIFIED BY: Lynne Tracy, Principal Officer, U.S. Consulate
Peshawar, Department of State.
REASON: 1.4 (d)


Summary
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1. (C) During May 4-6, militants in Swat acting on the
previously announced withdrawal (Ref A) from the Swat peace
accord, attacked security forces throughout Swat and seized
government buildings before apparently being evicted from at
least some of these by security forces. Despite this action,
the expected Pakistani military operation to clear Swat of
militants, while imminent, has apparently not yet begun.
Northwest Frontier Province officials are bracing for a "major
wave" of displaced Swat residents to begin arriving in the Swat
valley o/a May 8. In Buner, lashkars appear to be standing up
again, but Frontier Corps and the regular army are still doing
the heavy lifting in unsecured areas of northern and
northwestern Buner. In Lower Dir, fighting continued. Frontier
Corps contacts told post that Sufi Mohammed's son had been "with
the militants" and killed during an operation. In Upper Dir, a
local jirga asked security forces' forbearance for ongoing
efforts to peacefully expel militants from the area. End
Summary.

SWAT: BOMBARDMENT BUT "NO OPERATION"
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2. (C) Pakistani media report and Consulate contacts confirm
fighting between Pakistani security forces and taliban elements
after the May 5 taliban takeover of government buildings in
Saidu Sharif, the district headquarters, and nearby Mingora,
Swat's largest city. The Pakistani military announced on the
evening of May 6 that security forces had re-taken several
emerald mines seized by the taliban and "all" of the "important"
overrun government buildings in Swat. However, a government
spokesman announced that the imperative to avoid collateral
damage and the high level of militant fortification in many of
the government buildings meant that many government buildings
would not be re-taken for some time; a consulate contact
confirms that many government building and other critical points
remain occupied by militants.


3. (SBU) Aside from this action, units of the Pakistani regular
army and Frontier Corps stationed in Swat appear to have engaged
militants primarily defensively but not taking major offensive
action on the ground. Reports of overall deaths in the Swat
fighting to date vary from 83 to 102 as of the morning of May 7;
all accounts show more militant deaths than the combined total
deaths for security forces and civilians.


4. (C) The district government continues to maintain the nominal
curfew that it began May 5, but enforcement has been sporadic at
best and has primarily included the accidental deaths of several
Swati university students who had inadvertently violated the
curfew in the evening of May 6. According to Consulate contacts
in the district, it has also jammed all cellular telephones in
the Mingora area. While the district government has advised
residents of the area surrounding Mingora to leave in advance of
action by the Pakistani military, the Pakistani military itself
(on May 5) and NWFP Information Minister Mian Iftikhar Hussain
(on the evening of May 6) both have announced to the press that
the anticipated military operation to clear militants from Swat
has not yet begun. According to Special Operations
Command-Forward (SOC-FWD),offensive operations are imminent;
however, forces currently in Swat consist only of the 11th
Corps' 23rd Division and two wings (battalion equivalents) of
FC.

IDPs
--------------


5. (SBU) In a May 7 meeting, NWFP Chief Secretary Javed Iqbal
told Embassy and Consulate representatives that the provincial
government is bracing for a "major wave" of IDPs to begin
arriving in the Peshawar valley o/a May 8. Outflows have been
slowed by the local curfew, road blocks, and the fire fights
between security forces and militants in Mingora and Saidu
Sharif. The provincial government is expanding the number of
registration sites and camps in Mardan and Swabi. Most families
are still choosing to stay outside of the camps. The provincial
government's immediate key concern is food. Local officials
understand that World Food Program (WFP) has supplies on hand to
feed 600,000. Iqbal noted, however, that these WFP resources
are committed to an existing IDP population (Bajaur and Mohmand)
of nearly 500,000. The Swat wave could double that requirement.
IDP numbers from Buner appear to be easing but that could
change since a substantial militant presence remains in the
northern part of the district. (Note: We are reaching out to
WFP to ascertain what is in the WFP pipeline.)

CONTINUED FIGHTING IN BUNER; ARMY CLAIMS CLEARANCE OF PIR BABA
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6. (SBU) Press reports indicate that on May 6-7 the FC and
regular army used artillery and tanks against militants in the
Pir Baba areas of northern Buner. According to a Consulate
contact in Daggar (Buner's headquarters),lashkars do appear to
be re-forming in Buner; militants left a beheaded body of a
lashkar leader in Elai village, west of Daggar. A curfew
continued throughout most of the district. Militants reportedly
remain in control of Kallel Pass and Karakar, routes linking
Swat and Buner.

CONTINUED LAWLESSNESS IN LOWER DIR; SUFI MOHAMMED'S SON DEAD?
-------------- --------------


7. (SBU) Frontier Corps contacts told post that Sufi Mohammad's
oldest son, Kifayat Ullah, was killed by government shelling in
the Maidan area on the evening of May 6. A 30-member peace
jirga expressed its intent to meet with Sufi Mohammad but could
not reach Lower Dir district headquarters Timergara because of
the government-imposed curfew there. Reports continue of
widespread looting in the Timergara and Maidan areas; in
Timergara, the administration of Malakand University ordered the
school closed and for students to vacate the area due to
security concerns.

UPPER DIR: JIRGA ASKS FOR TIME TO EXPEL TALIBAN
-------------- --


8. (SBU) According to press reports, in the militant-occupied
Doog Darra area of Upper Dir, a jirga of Sultankhel and
Paindakhel tribal elders convoked May 6 by the district's top
security officials refused to militarily confront taliban
elements in the area, asking instead that they be given time to
further pursue their ongoing efforts to persuade the militants
to leave peacefully rather than taking military action.
Consulate contacts tell us that Upper Dir has remained calmer
than Lower Dir because the lashkars are more active,
better-equipped, and better-organized.


TRACY