FATA: BAJAUR CONDITIONS UPDATE

C O N F I D E N T I A L PESHAWAR 000073


E.O. 12958: DECL: 4/20/2019
TAGS: PREF PGOV PTER MOPS EAID PK
SUBJECT: FATA: BAJAUR CONDITIONS UPDATE

CLASSIFIED BY: Lynne Tracy, Principal Officer, U.S. Consulate
Peshawar, Department of State.
REASON: 1.4 (d)


Summary
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1. (C) Bajaur-based officials are reporting significant numbers
of returnees within the past two months (approximately 211,000).
While at odds with numbers reported by UN agencies, fraud
(double dipping on benefits, people from areas other than Bajaur
seeking benefits, etc.) may be contributing to an IDP
registration count that is reportedly going up rather than down.
The most significant damage in Bajaur appears to be
concentrated in the Nawagai-Khar corridor, and operations
continue in the Charmang valley northwest of Nawagai. Aside
from these areas, Pakistani civilian and military officials are
encouraging return and emphasizing the importance of focusing
help to resettle those inside Bajaur.


2. (C) USAID has already provided $1.8 million that includes
tents, non-food items, cash for work, and small infrastructure
repair projects. Special Operations Command Central-Forward
Pakistan (SOCFWD-PAK) has provided $247,000 for food and
supplies for medical camps. We are directing our assistance to
meet additional similar requests from the Bajaur political
administration as well as repairing water and electrical
infrastructure in key areas. Security is not perfect, but with
substantial military operations largely concluded, there are
real improvements over the pre-August 2008 environment in Bajaur
that provide the government with opportunities to make further
progress. End Summary.

Visit to Bajaur
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3. (C) Peshawar Principal Officer, USAID Director of FATA
Programs, and Special Forces Commanding Officer (Peshawar)
visited Bajaur on April 15. Bajaur Political Agent (PA)
Shafirullah and Bajaur Scouts Commanding Officer (Acting)
Colonel Cheema briefed Consulate officials on local conditions
and assistance requirements.

Security
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4. (C) The FC Commander reported that operations are still
taking place in the Charmang valley (northwest of Nawagai to the
Afghan border). Although the Nawagai-Loyesam-Khar road has a
strong FC presence, he noted that the corridor's proximity to
the Charmang valley leaves it vulnerable to militant activity.
Salarzai, Mahmoond, Utmankhel, Barang, and Khar city are
relatively quiet and no substantial operations are planned for
these areas. (Note: Separately, the FATA Secretariat Additional
Chief Secretary told Consulate representatives that militants in
Bajaur are starting to resurface in a few locations intent on
targeting local elders. See paras 11-12.)

Damage
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5. (SBU) The PA categorized the Nawagai-Khar corridor as having
sustained the greatest amount of damage -- nearly 3,000 houses
destroyed. In Mahmoond tehsil, he said, approximately 1,000
houses had been destroyed. The PA estimated 10 family members
per household. Other areas had suffered limited pockets of
damage or none at all.

Returnees
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6. (SBU) According to the PA, approximately 211,000 Bajaur
residents have returned while roughly 100,000 have yet to come
back. Local officials have been registering returnees at two
primary entry points: Munda (Bajaur-Dir) and Nawagai
(Bajaur-Mohmand). In addition to names, returnees are being
asked to provide their national identity card (NIC) numbers.
Anecdotally, USAID contractor staff in Bajaur confirm that
people are returning to the area. UNHCR reports that
approximately 88,000 people are living in camps while another
464,000 are with family and friends and that overall numbers are
going up.

USG Assistance
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7. (C) USAID activities in Bajaur currently total $1.8 million.
Assistance includes relief for returnees: 2,000 tents; 620 house
reconstruction kits; 1,500 non-food item relief kits (plastic
mats, jerry cans, gas stoves, cloth, blankets, and cooking
utensils); and an ongoing cash for work program (debris clean up
and similar activities. SOCFWD-PAK's Civil-Military Support
Element has provided $247,000 -- $220,000 for food (wheat,
edible oil, sugar, and tea) and $27,000 in supplies for medical
camps.

Government Priorities
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8. (U) Except for those from the Nawagai-Khar corridor and the
Charmang valley, the PA is encouraging Bajaur residents to
return and emphasized the importance of providing return relief
inside Bajaur where it can be monitored. The PA has on hand
2,000 tents (provided by USAID) that he is reserving for those
from the Nawagai-Khar area where the largest number of homes
were destroyed. The PA asked for additional tents, dry rations,
and non-food items such as cooking utensils and blankets.
Consulate officials agreed to direct resources to meet these
requests.


9. (U) For the Nawagai-Khar corridor, the PA also placed a
premium on repairing water supply and electricity generation.
The government has determined that there will be a setback of
250 meters for rebuilding along the road corridor to help
maintain security.


10. (C) Frontier Corps General Tariq told PO on April 14 that he
is watching his force levels in Bajaur to maintain sufficient
numbers to "hold" the area. He is worried, however, that his
forces will be ordered off to deal with instability in Swat and
surrounding districts, particularly Dir which touches Bajaur and
is an access route. The FC Commander is already providing one
FC wing (approximately 650 soldiers) to help secure the road
through Dir.

Future Policy Toward IDPs
--------------


11. (SBU) At an April 16 civil-military coordination meeting in
Peshawar attended by Pakistani and U.S representatives, FATA
Secretariat Additional Chief Secretary Habibullah Khan said that
the government will remain flexible on whether to continue to
maintain IDP camps outside Bajaur until operations in the
Charmang valley are completed.


12. (SBU) The primary assistance focus though, the ACS
continued, should be on help for Bajaur returnees and improving
conditions in the agency. These are the individuals who are
stabilizing their communities. At some point, assistance to the
camps, he said, will need to end to cut off those who are taking
advantage of the system. "We must be managers not
philanthropists." (Note: Northwest Frontier Province Governor
Ghani told PO separately on April 13 that he planned to "wind up
the camps" within the next couple of months.)


13. (C) Separately, DCM and others met with Rashid Khalikov,
Director of OCHA, who is visiting Pakistan to assess UN
operations and look for ways to improve their performance.
Khalikov reminded us of the UN's insistence that returns be
voluntary, in dignity, and with security, that IDPs should be
well-informed, and that they should be able to go back to
conditions commensurate with what they'd left behind. While
there is no evidence that returns to Bajaur have been anything
but voluntary, humanitarian workers in Pakistan have been highly
critical of reports from Frontier Corps that the situation in
Bajaur is generally secure. We will have to work through these
inherent tensions as we deal with the reality on the ground that
people are returning.

Future Operations
--------------


14. (C) Frontier Corps briefed the April 16 civil-military
gathering that the northwestern corner of Mohmand is still a
trouble spot and that operations there would continue. The ACS
told the group that operations were likely in lower Kurram
(predominantly Sunni) and Orakzai agencies (timeline NFI). The
Pakistani side did not expect large IDP numbers moving across
the border into Afghanistan. The FATA Secretariat is
coordinating with USAID on possible needs.

Comment
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15. (C) Initially, there were an overwhelming number of genuine
IDPs, and conditions in some areas such the Nawagai-Khar
corridor still make return difficult. IDP assistance, however,
is vulnerable to double dipping and other types of fraud that
may be contributing to inflated IDP registration numbers despite
evidence that people are returning to Bajaur. Security is not
perfect nor should we expect it to be. IDPs' concerns about
security appear to be in large measure about future substantial
military operations that might again result in aerial
bombardment or destruction of homes, crops, and livestock.
Compared to pre-August 2008, militant presence and activity has
taken a real hit in Bajaur. Frontier Corps and other forces are
needed to help hold territory but the return of Bajaur residents
to stabilize communities is also critical. Pakistani civilian
and military officials responsible for the tribal areas are
united on the need to focus assistance inside Bajaur.


TRACY