Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09PESHAWAR71
2009-04-10 13:57:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Consulate Peshawar
Cable title:  

NWFP: SWAT DEAL GOING OFF THE RAILS?

Tags:  PTER PGOV MOPS PHUM PK 
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O 101357Z APR 09
FM AMCONSUL PESHAWAR
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 7909
INFO AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD IMMEDIATE 
AMCONSUL LAHORE IMMEDIATE 
AMCONSUL KARACHI IMMEDIATE 
AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI IMMEDIATE 
AMEMBASSY KABUL IMMEDIATE 
AMEMBASSY CANBERRA IMMEDIATE 
AMEMBASSY LONDON IMMEDIATE 
USMISSION USNATO IMMEDIATE 
AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE IMMEDIATE 
AMEMBASSY OTTAWA IMMEDIATE 
CIA WASHDC
NSC WASHINGTON DC
SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC
CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
CDR USSOCOM MACDILL AFB FL
AMCONSUL PESHAWAR
C O N F I D E N T I A L PESHAWAR 000071 


E.O. 12958: DECL: 4/10/2019
TAGS: PTER PGOV MOPS PHUM PK
SUBJECT: NWFP: SWAT DEAL GOING OFF THE RAILS?

REF: ISLAMABAD 723

CLASSIFIED BY: Lynne Tracy, Principal Officer, U.S. Consulate
Peshawar, Department of State.
REASON: 1.4 (d)


Summary
-------

C O N F I D E N T I A L PESHAWAR 000071


E.O. 12958: DECL: 4/10/2019
TAGS: PTER PGOV MOPS PHUM PK
SUBJECT: NWFP: SWAT DEAL GOING OFF THE RAILS?

REF: ISLAMABAD 723

CLASSIFIED BY: Lynne Tracy, Principal Officer, U.S. Consulate
Peshawar, Department of State.
REASON: 1.4 (d)


Summary
--------------


1. (C) Tehrik Nifaz-e-Shariat Muhammadi (TNSM) leader Sufi
Mohammad closed down his "peace camp" in Swat on April 9 to
protest President Zardari's delay in signing the Nizam-e-Adl
(Shari'a) Regulation. Sufi also announced, however, that "the
peace deal with the government is intact." Northwest Frontier
Province (NWFP) elected officials continue to defend the
agreement in public, but one key Awami National Party (ANP)
provincial minister privately told the Consulate that the peace
deal is a "failure." Except for Mingora and some isolated areas
in the northern part of the district, militants appear to be
firmly in control of Swat and intent on expanding their
influence in neighboring districts (septel). Whether the signs
of growing militant activity in areas around Swat in the wake of
the peace deal will derail the agreement is unclear, but the
further cementing of the militants' position in Swat creates an
even deeper security hole for the government to dig out of in
the NWFP. End Summary.


Sufi Pulls Up Peace Camp Stakes
--------------


2. (U) TNSM leader Sufi Mohammad announced April 9 that he was
ending his "peace camp" in Swat. The camp was established in
Swat after the February peace deal ostensibly to help ensure
"security" in the Swat valley. Although a peaceful place for
people to gather to voice concerns about the government, the
camp served as a pressure point on the government. The TNSM
leader maintained in his announcement that peace could not be
restored without the Nizam-e-Adl Regulation coming into force,
but was apparently not ready to declare the February peace deal
dead, describing the agreement as "intact." The camp is
reportedly being moved to Batkhela in Malakand District
(approximately 40 km south of Mingora at the top of the Malakand
Pass).


3. (U) Tehrik-i-Taliban (TTP-Swat) spokesman Muslim Khan used
the opportunity of Sufi's announcement to also condemn Zardari
on April 9 for not signing the Nizam-e-Adl Regulation. Khan
also stated that "if clashes between TTP and security forces

resume, [Zardari] will be responsible."

Government's Mixed Signals
--------------


4. (C) NWFP government officials continue to defend the peace
agreement in public, even with the recent furor over a video
clip of young woman being publicly beaten by local militants
(reftel). Some elected provincial leaders have attempted to
separate the peace agreement from the flogging and condemned the
beating. Other politicians have simply maintained that the
video clip was staged to undermine the peace deal. (Note: The
facts behind the video clip have been muddied by the public
firestorm of protest. A Consulate press contact based in Swat
told post on April 8 that the incident took place shortly after
the peace deal was announced. According to our press contact,
the beating was retaliation after the girl's parents refused a
marriage proposal from a local militant.)


5. (C) However, NWFP Law Minister Arshad Abdullah privately told
post on April 9 that the peace deal is a "failure" and that the
militants are in control in Swat. Abdullah was part of the
initial group of NWFP provincial officials who worked out the
agreement. "The militants are in control, and the government
has no resources." The Law Minister complained that ISI had
"pre-cooked" the agreement and the follow on engagement between
the government and the militants with Sufi as mediator.

Swat "Lost" But Some Respite in Mingora
--------------


6. (C) A Swat resident who regularly visits Mingora commented on
April 7 during a roundtable with Ambassador Holbrooke that Swat
was "lost" to the militants but that some calm has returned to
the city. The government, she said, is in "partial control" of
Mingora and that girls of all ages had returned to school there.
People, she continued, were exhausted by the violence that had
preceded the peace agreement and were ready to grasp at any
straw that would provide a small respite of quiet.


7. (C) She expressed deep skepticism about the military's
ability to "protect the people" if the military renewed
operations against local taliban. The military's use of heavy
artillery that seemed to hit civilians more frequently than TTP
targets and a deep mistrust of the military and ISI's motives
and contact with TTP, she said, had severely damaged public
confidence in the government's ability to respond effectively in
Swat.

Comment
--------------


8. (C) Sufi's announcement of winding up the peace camp appears
to be one more ploy to draw attention and pressure for Zardari's
signature on the Nizam-e-Adl Regulation. For now, the TNSM
leader seems likely to remain unwilling to declare the peace
deal dead since the agreement is an important platform that
gives him some voice and influence. The increasing signs of
militant activity in districts adjacent to Swat (Malakand
Division) that were also purportedly a part of the peace deal
are more likely to end the agreement than Sufi's decision to
pull up the peace camp's stakes in Swat.


TRACY