Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09PESHAWAR39
2009-02-25 14:55:00
SECRET
Consulate Peshawar
Cable title:  

FATA: NO DEAL IN BAJAUR

Tags:  MOPS PTER PGOV PK 
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O 251455Z FEB 09
FM AMCONSUL PESHAWAR
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 7854
INFO AMCONSUL PESHAWAR 
AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD IMMEDIATE 
AMCONSUL LAHORE IMMEDIATE 
AMCONSUL KARACHI IMMEDIATE 
AMEMBASSY KABUL IMMEDIATE 
AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI IMMEDIATE 
AMEMBASSY CANBERRA IMMEDIATE 
USMISSION USNATO IMMEDIATE 
AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE IMMEDIATE 
AMEMBASSY LONDON IMMEDIATE 
AMEMBASSY OTTAWA IMMEDIATE 
CIA WASHDC
NSC WASHINGTON DC
SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC
CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
CDR USSOCOM MACDILL AFB FL
S E C R E T PESHAWAR 000039 


E.O. 12958: DECL: 2/25/2019
TAGS: MOPS PTER PGOV PK
SUBJECT: FATA: NO DEAL IN BAJAUR

CLASSIFIED BY: Lynne Tracy, Principal Officer, U.S. Consulate
Peshawar, Department of State.
REASON: 1.4 (d)

Summary
-------

S E C R E T PESHAWAR 000039


E.O. 12958: DECL: 2/25/2019
TAGS: MOPS PTER PGOV PK
SUBJECT: FATA: NO DEAL IN BAJAUR

CLASSIFIED BY: Lynne Tracy, Principal Officer, U.S. Consulate
Peshawar, Department of State.
REASON: 1.4 (d)

Summary
--------------


1. (S) Local press reports that a "four day" ceasefire has been
declared in Bajaur appear to be inaccurate. Frontier Corps
Commander General Tariq Khan categorically told Consulate on
February 25 that there is no deal or ceasefire with militants
led by Tehrik-i Taliban (TTP) deputy Faqir Mohammad. General
Tariq and FATA Secretariat Additional Chief Secretary (ACS)
Habibullah Khan describe Bajaur's militants as on the defensive
and looking for some space, possibly to evacuate key figures out
of the agency. "Unconditional surrender" remains the
government's key demand. General Tariq intends to continue his
advance toward the border after a two-day operational pause to
reconsolidate forces. The background behind the conflicting
information cited in the press reports is unclear. We have no
reason to doubt the FC Commander or the FATA ACS, but note that
General Headquarters (GHQ) and ISI remain critical "other"
voices in contact with militant groups. End Summary.

No Deal or Ceasefire
--------------


2. (C) During a February 25 meeting with Consulate's senior
Special Forces representative, the FC Commander categorically
denied that a ceasefire or deal had been struck with Bajaur
militants. The government demand is unconditional surrender, he
said. FATA ACS conveyed the same points to Principal Officer in
a February 24 meeting. The ACS described Faqir Mohammad's
announcement of a ceasefire as "unilateral" and due to the
pressure that he is under from Frontier Corps.

Militants Out of Resources
--------------


3. (C) General Tariq commented that the militants are "out of
resources" because a number of fighters (NFI) have surrendered.
According to the FATA ACS, Faqir Mohammad has been making
overtures to the government since the military hit a key cave
system in mid/late January. The FATA ACS attributed the timing
of the TTP's announcement to operations over the past week or
more aimed at the militants stronghold, Mahmoond tehsil, that
have put the militants very much on the defensive. Faqir
Mohammad, the FATA ACS said, has been offering all sorts of
promises not to attack the government.

"Unconditional Surrender"
--------------


4. (C) The FC Commander and the FATA ACS emphasized that the
government's key demand is "unconditional surrender." The FATA
ACS also noted the government's position of "no amnesty" for
those who participated in targeted killings. Faqir Mohammad has
been unwilling, however, to surrender himself because "he fears
that he will be handed over to the United States." General
Tariq commented that those who surrender will go into the "legal
process" and be tried. (Note: Both the FC Commander and the
FATA ACS have previously expressed concern about the
government's ability win convictions and long prison sentences
in the settled areas and have noted that even the draconian
Frontier Crimes Regulation has its limits.)

Continuing the Advance
--------------


5. (C) General Tariq said that Frontier Corps forces will
continue advancing toward the border after a two-day operational
pause to reconsolidate. The FC Commander emphasized that this
pause should not be misconstrued as a ceasefire or as an
extension of government actions in Swat. He acknowledged,
however, that some militants may try to evacuate the area during
the operational pause.

Comment
--------------


6. (S) The background behind the conflicting information cited
in the press reports is unclear. We have no reason to doubt the
FC Commander or the FATA ACS, but note that General Headquarters
(GHQ) and ISI remain critical "other" voices in contact with
militant groups. One observer recalled GHQ's decision last year
to ease the blockade pressure off the Mehsud area just as
Baitullah Mehsud appeared to be on the ropes -- the 14th
Division commander who received the order was General Tariq Khan
who has since expressed his unhappiness with that decision.


TRACY