FATA SECRETARY FOR LAW AND ORDER PROVIDES GRIM ASSESSMENT OF SITUATION IN THE NWFP AND FATA

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S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 PESHAWAR 000002

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 1/3/2019
TAGS: PTER, MOPS, ASEC, PGOV, PK
SUBJECT: FATA SECRETARY FOR LAW AND ORDER PROVIDES GRIM ASSESSMENT OF
SITUATION IN THE NWFP AND FATA

CLASSIFIED BY: Michael A. Via, Acting Principal Officer,
Peshawar, Department of State.
REASON: 1.4 (a),(b),(d)
Summary
- - - -

1. (C) Ghulam Qadir, Federally Administered Tribal Areas
(FATA) Secretary for Law and Order told Acting Principal Officer
(APO) that nearly all girls' schools in the FATA would be closed
by the January 15, 2009 deadline set by militants; since then,
the militants have relented marginally and allowed girls to
attend school up to grade four. Qadir, believes the GOP has
given up on Swat, Northwest Frontier Province (NWFP) for now.
The current Khyber operation was launched to counter local
militants who had set up operations near Peshawar as well as to
secure truck convoys.

2. (S) Qadir said he believes the GOP does not understand the
gravity of the situation in FATA. The predominantly Shi'a town
of Hangu may be attacked by Sunni militants during Muharam
celebrations. He believes that if the taliban began to control
the NWFP, they could not administer it and Qadir might need to
join their ranks just to survive. Qadir's assessment is less
hopeful than most of post's contacts but accurately reflects a
growing pessimism and frustration among some concerning the
future of the FATA and NWFP. End Summary.

3. (C) Ghulam Qadir, FATA Secretary for Law and Order
provided his assessment of the situation in the Northwest
Frontier Province (NWFP) and Federally Administered Tribal Areas
(FATA) to APO on December 30.

Closure Of Girls Schools?
--------------

4. (C) Qadir, said some girls schools will likely try to
remain technically open after the January 15 deadline set my
militants for their closure. However, the practical effect will
be that almost all government girls' schools and probably all
private girls' schools in the FATA will either close or have no
students attending them. He said this was because of the
widespread fear of the taliban and mentioned his son's schooling
situation as an example. He noted that his son's school in
Peshawar, Edwards College, recently was threatened by the
taliban. He immediately removed his son from the school until
the threat was "dealt with." He reasoned that nearly all

/>parents in the FATA will do the same based on the current threat
and deadline. (Note: Since this meeting, the local militants
have agreed to allow girls to attend school up to grade four.)

Troop Redeployments
--------------

5. (S) Qadir stated that the decision to pull troops out of Swat
was less about needed troops on the border with India as alleged
in the press and more about a decision by the GOP to "give up on
Swat for now." He asserted "we have given the taliban the north
of Swat, so why not give them the city of Mingora too." Qadir,
who has only anecdotal information about other troop pullouts
from FATA and the NWFP, opined that these would likely be "token
as a show of force for the India situation."

Khyber Operation - FATA A Priority?
--------------

6. (C) Qadir stated what other post contacts have told us,
namely the current operation in Khyber was about more than
simply insuring the safety of truck convoys between Peshawar and
Torkham. Local unnamed militants had set up kidnapping for
ransom operations near Peshawar to fund their operations. He
claimed funding operations through kidnapping had become a major
source of revenue for the taliban in FATA, where previously they
had relied more on "outside funding." He reasoned that this was
an indication that the militancy had become a true insurgency
that had wider implications for Pakistan outside the NWFP, but
the GOP in Islamabad did not appreciate the gravity of the
situation. He asserted that "FATA as a federal priority has
dropped of the list since the India situation has come to
light."

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North Waziristan Location Of Hostages?
--------------

7. (C) Qadir said the Polish mission had asked him to help in
the recovery of those taken hostage. He said he didn't make
much progress in his efforts but learned two things of note. He
believed that all signs point to the hostages being held in
North Waziristan. The kidnappers were not interested in a
ransom which leads him to conclude that they are being held as
human shields. He asserts that Baitullah Mehsud may be using
them in this manner to prevent alleged U.S. Predator strikes.

Predator Strikes
--------------

8. (S) Qadir said he wanted to say in an unofficial capacity
that he and many others could accept Predator strikes as they
were surgical and clearly hitting high value targets. He
mentioned that fear among the local populace in areas where the
strikes have been occurring was lessening because "everyone knew
that they only hit the house or location of very bad people."
He wondered why the strikes did not seem to target more of the
taliban which he reasoned was needed. He said "our house is on
fire and we need to take drastic actions."

In Camera Session And ISI
--------------

9. (S) Qadir confided that ISI, (Note: Pakistan's military
intelligence. End note),during the in camera session of the
parliament recently, had briefed lawmakers and senior GOP
officials concerning the virtues of some taliban elements versus
the "real militants." They reasoned small numbers from some of
the militant groups could be useful in future operations in
Kashmir or elsewhere. Qadir said although not everyone present
agreed with the assertion it was this line of reasoning that
contributed to his fear of the future.

The Future
--------------

10. (C) The future, according to Qadir, was likely to include an
attack by Sunni militants on the predominantly Shi'a town of
Hangu during the Muharam celebrations. (Note. After Kurram,
Orakzai Agency, where Hangu serves as the administrative
headquarters, has the second highest concentration of Shi'a in
the region, at almost 10 per cent. End note.)

11. (C) In six to twelve months, Qadir predicted, a lack of
focus from Islamabad could leave the taliban in control of both
FATA and NWFP. If that happened, the taliban would need help
administering the area. He said the prospect was causing him
and others to begin to figure out how to individually survive
the coming taliban. He said "for one I am thinking that the
taliban could capture the NWFP but they don't know how to
administer it so they might need administrators like me and I
might have to join the taliban at some point to just survive."

Comment
- - - -

12. (C) Qadir's concerns for the future are not widely expressed
by other post contacts, at least not in the dark terms he
describes, but accurately reflect a growing pessimism and
frustration concerning the future of the FATA and NWFP. Most
view the current deteriorating security situation as reversible;
for example, Qadir's subordinate, the Khyber Political Agent, is
hopeful of being able to defeat the militants in the short term.
Others point to the relative successes of recent engagements in
Bajaur to support their view that the GOP can turn the tide in
both the short and long term.

13. (C) The new level of pessimism from Qadir, who previously
was generally (some say overly) optimistic about the security

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situation, probably relates to his personal concern about
security at his son's school, previously considered an
institution safe from taliban influence. Nevertheless, it is
disturbing that the FATA Law and Order Secretary, who is
responsible for supervising all the Political Agents, believes
the militants are winning in both FATA and NWFP.
VIA