OFFICIAL LIST OF CANDIDATES FOR UNESCO DIRECTOR-GENERAL

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS FR 000730

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL UNESCO
SUBJECT: OFFICIAL LIST OF CANDIDATES FOR UNESCO DIRECTOR-GENERAL

REF: Paris FR 000670


1. (SBU) Summary: The May 31 deadline for nominations to succeed
Koichiro Matsuura (Japan) as UNESCO's next Director-General has
passed. UNESCO's Executive Board will have nine candidates from
which to choose when it meets next September. After many months in
which there were only four candidates (Egypt, Lithuania, Bulgaria,
and an Algerian nominated by Cambodia),recent weeks saw a surge of
applications from Tanzania, Benin, Russia, Ecuador, and Austria.
The delegations of these countries have in many cases explained to
us that they were acting explicitly to block a possible victory by
the current front-runner, Egypt's Culture Minister Farouq Hosny. At
this point, the race is too uncertain to call. Hosny still appears
to be in the lead, but he faces significant, if divided, opposition.
End Summary.


2. (SBU) With the May 31 deadline for nominations past,
knowledgeable UNESCO staff have informed us that nine candidates
have been formally nominated. (Executive Board Chairman Yai will
formally circulate the list on July 8.) This list of candidates is
now final and definitive. Unless the Executive Board at its next
session amends the rules of procedure it agreed at its last meeting
(reftel),another name cannot be added to the list before voting
begins. (Note: Existing rules permit addition of a new name only
in the unlikely event that the Executive Board at its September
session is deadlocked at the end of five ballots. End Note.)
Therefore, barring a last minute change to the rules or an
improbable fifth ballot tie, the successor to UNESCO
Director-General Matsuura will be one of the following individuals:

Farouq Hosni Egypt
Ina Marciulonyte Lithuania
Irina Bukova Bulgaria
Mohammed Bedjaoui Algerian nominated by Cambodia
Sospeter Muhongo Tanzania
Noreini Tidjani-Serpos Benin
Alexander Yakovenko Russia
Ivone Baki Ecuador
Benita Ferrero-Waldner Austria/Colombia


3. (SBU) For those who have followed the campaign so far, the
length of the list is something of a surprise. As the race began,
the Arab states and Eastern Europe each claimed that Matsuura's
successor should come from their region, since each had never
previously had a Director-General. Egypt struck first, announcing
in summer 2007 Culture Minister Hosni's intention to run. Eastern
Europe followed shortly thereafter, nominating the Bulgarian and
Lithuanian UNESCO ambassadors. For many months, the list did not
grow. Egypt forced potential Arab candidates from Morocco and Oman
to withdraw and eventually gained a firm endorsement of Hosni from
the Arab League. Hosni then appeared to gain the endorsement of the
African Union (AU) with significant help from Libyan leader Qadhafi
at the Organization's summit in January. Finally, in early May
2009, Hosni's cause received a powerful boost when Brazil, which had
been expected to name its own candidate, decided to back Hosni and
to urge other Latin American countries to do the same. By mid-May,
Hosni was reported to have picked up support from Chile, Cuba, the
Dominican Republic, and (possibly) Argentina. Further adding to
Hosni's momentum, it became known at the same time that Israel, an
early and outspoken critic of Hosni, had switched its position on
him from "oppose" to "not oppose," following a meeting between
President Mubarak and Prime Minister Netanyahu. Egypt began crowing
that it had the necessary 30 votes on UNESCO's 58-member Executive
Board to ensure a victory on the first ballot.


4. (SBU) Hosni's evident faults (record of anti-Semitic comments
and reputation for poor management of his ministry) and Egypt's
increasingly heavy-handed tactics on his behalf have combined to
trigger a backlash, however. It began several months ago when
Cambodia (with apparent encouragement from Algeria) nominated former
Algerian Foreign Minister Mohammed Bedjaoui. It became much more
serious after the January AU Summit, where Qadhafi was perceived to
have run roughshod over the sub-Saharan African states to obtain
Hosni's endorsement. Many influential ambassadors of sub-Saharan
states have stressed to us here that they do not feel themselves
bound by the January decision. We are told that the decisions by
Tanzania in March and Benin in late May to nominate candidates of
their own were in large measure motivated by a desire to defy
Qadhafi (and Egypt) and ensure that sub-Saharan African states have
leverage in determining the identity of UNESCO's next leader.


5. (SBU) Other states have joined the fray in the last ten days.
Ecuador nominated Andean Parliament President Ivone Baki. Russia
made a surprise entrance with Vice-Foreign Minister Yakovenko, and
Austria nominated its former foreign minister and current EU
External Affairs Commissioner Ferrero-Waldner. Austrian officials
and other Western European delegations have told us that her
candidacy was explicitly intended to block Egypt's. Recognizing
that as a European Ferrero-Waldner suffered a handicap in seeking
the necessary votes from developing countries, Austria convinced
Colombia to join in nominating her in order to make her a joint

UNESCOPARI 06020730 002.2 OF 002


European/Latin American candidate.


6. (SBU) Comment: Egypt's claims of victory are clearly premature,
but there is no reason to believe it will give up. Hosni has more
commitments than any other candidate, and we expect Egypt will
continue to pressure and deal on his behalf right up until voting
begins in September. In particular, we expect that Egypt will seek
to find the right mix of pressure and inducements to convince as
many of the other candidates as possible to withdraw. Benin,
Tanzania, and other like-minded African states will come in for some
heavy arm-twisting at the African Union summit later this month.
And they and Ecuador can expect more of the same treatment at the
Non-aligned summit that Egypt will host in Sharm el-Sheikh in July.
We understand from the Russian delegation that President Medvedev
also plans to meet Mubarak this summer, and they could have some
tense exchanges on this topic. (Egyptians were surprised by the
Russian move and alarmed, as the Russians have immediately set to
work winning over countries like Cuba that are now pledged to
Hosni.)


7. (SBU) Comment Continued: At this point, the race looks wide
open. The addition of Ferrero-Waldner, Baki, and Yakovenko in
recent days has given Hosni something he didn't have previously,
opponents of ministerial or near ministerial stature. As we assume
the Arab states will vote for Hosni on the first ballot and most
Europeans will not, the principal battleground will be in Latin
America, Africa, and Asia. Hosni's opponents will have to do well
in these regions if they are to block him. At the moment,
sub-Saharan Africa with 13 votes on the Executive Board looks quite
hostile to him. In Asia, Pakistan and Malaysia will probably
support him, and China is officially undecided but, according to its
ambassador, will be much influenced by his Arab League and African
Union endorsements. Few others in Asia seem to leaning toward him.
In Latin America, Egypt has made more inroads with the help of
Brazil and its supporters. These are still early days, however, and
we would expect to see many changes of allegiance between now and
the voting by secret ballot in September. If Ferrero-Waldner or any
of the other European candidates begins to erode Hosni's support, we
would expect Egypt to react by trying to turn the race into a
north-south contest. Judging by the frequent questions we receive,
the U.S. will need to reiterate its views on this campaign often,
both here at UNESCO headquarters and in capitals. Egypt has
frequently put it about falsely that it has somehow allayed U.S.
concerns about Hosni, and that the U.S. will not oppose him
actively.

ENGELKEN