Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09PARIS715
2009-05-28 14:50:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Paris
Cable title:  

PARIS CLUB - MAY 2009 TOUR D'HORIZON AND DISCUSSIONS ON

Tags:  EFIN ECON EAID XM XA XH XB XF FR 
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DE RUEHFR #0715/01 1481450
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 281450Z MAY 09
FM AMEMBASSY PARIS
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 6340
INFO RUEATRS/DEPARTMENT OF TREASURY WASHDC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RUEHAB/AMEMBASSY ABIDJAN 1439
RUEHGB/AMEMBASSY BAGHDAD 0324
RUEHRL/AMEMBASSY BERLIN 7040
RUEHSW/AMEMBASSY BERN 2273
RUEHBS/AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS 7035
RUEHCP/AMEMBASSY COPENHAGEN 1727
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 7180
RUEHMD/AMEMBASSY MADRID 3028
RUEHMO/AMEMBASSY MOSCOW 6396
RUEHNY/AMEMBASSY OSLO 1778
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RUEHRO/AMEMBASSY ROME 9142
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RUEHTC/AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE 3174
RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO 3003
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS 2614
RUEHLU/AMEMBASSY LUANDA 1112
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RUEHRY/AMEMBASSY CONAKRY 0254
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RUEHLC/AMEMBASSY LIBREVILLE 1582
RUEHPU/AMEMBASSY PORT AU PRINCE 1034
RUEHPC/AMEMBASSY LOME 1304
RUEHBU/AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES 1739
RUEHKH/AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM 0498
RUEHWR/AMEMBASSY WARSAW 1000
RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA 2243
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RUEHJB/AMEMBASSY BUJUMBURA 0283
RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 1999
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RUEHTV/AMEMBASSY TEL AVIV 0186
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RUEHKU/AMEMBASSY KUWAIT 0375
RUEHAD/AMEMBASSY ABU DHABI 0408
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RUEHPS/USOFFICE PRISTINA
RUEHIL/AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD 0946
RUEHDJ/AMEMBASSY DJIBOUTI 0103
RUEHBH/AMEMBASSY NASSAU 0213
RUEHDK/AMEMBASSY DAKAR 1678
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RUEHBUL/AMEMBASSY KABUL 0809
RUEHUM/AMEMBASSY ULAANBAATAR 0071
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 19 PARIS 000715 

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

STATE FOR EEB/IFD/OMA
TREASURY FOR DO/IDD AND OUSED/IMF
SECDEF FOR USDP/DSCA
PASS EXIM FOR CLAIMS - MPAREDES
PASS USDA FOR CCC -- ALEUNG/WWILLER/JDOSTER
PASS USAID FOR CLAIMS -- WFULLER
PASS DOD FOR DSCS -- PBERG

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: EFIN ECON EAID XM XA XH XB XF FR
SUBJECT: PARIS CLUB - MAY 2009 TOUR D'HORIZON AND DISCUSSIONS ON
METHODOLOGICAL ISSUES

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 19 PARIS 000715

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

STATE FOR EEB/IFD/OMA
TREASURY FOR DO/IDD AND OUSED/IMF
SECDEF FOR USDP/DSCA
PASS EXIM FOR CLAIMS - MPAREDES
PASS USDA FOR CCC -- ALEUNG/WWILLER/JDOSTER
PASS USAID FOR CLAIMS -- WFULLER
PASS DOD FOR DSCS -- PBERG

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: EFIN ECON EAID XM XA XH XB XF FR
SUBJECT: PARIS CLUB - MAY 2009 TOUR D'HORIZON AND DISCUSSIONS ON
METHODOLOGICAL ISSUES


1. (SBU) Summary: During the May 13 Paris Club meeting, creditors
were willing to extend Afghanistan's debt treatment, but Russia
blocked the move. Paris Club members expressed concerns about
Brazil's proposed loan to Argentina's state-owned airline Aerolineas
Argentinas, but agreed to seek more information before taking
action. The Central African Republic (CAR) appeared on track to
complete the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative in
June. Delegations as well as IMF and World Bank representatives
were highly skeptical that the Republic of Congo's (Brazzaville)
$800 million settlement with litigating creditors ("vulture funds")
can be deemed comparable to HIPC treatment. Creditors reluctantly
agreed to extend Grenada's 2006 treatment to reschedule payments due
in 2009. The IMF and World Bank appear determined to bring Haiti to
"Completion Point" soon by seeking a waiver of the public
procurement law trigger, which requires not only passage of the law
but implementation for six months. The Paris Club entered into
force the second phase of Liberia's 2008 interim treatment.


2. (SBU) The IMF reported that Moldova is expected to seek Paris
Club treatment together with an 18-month loan program. France and
Italy, the two holdouts that had not participated in Peru's 2007
prepayment arrangement, agreed to accept prepayment now on the same
terms. While some creditors supported the Secretariat's draft paper
on creating a class of senior debt for bilateral loans linked to IMF
programs, there was also considerable skepticism. On May 14-15, the

PARIS 00000715 002 OF 019


Paris Club negotiated with Cote d'Ivoire an interim debt treatment
following the country's entry into the HIPC Initiative process.
Under the new Agreed Minutes, $845 million will be cancelled over
the next three years. End Summary.

--------------

Afghanistan
--------------


3. (SBU) The IMF reported its Executive Board's April 22 approval of
the fifth review and Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF)
program extension to March 2010. Afghanistan had asked the Paris
Club to provide a similar routine extension of its debt relief
treatment to match this period. Russia, which in April had reported
a "small technical problem" vis-a-vis Afghanistan, refused,
initially questioning whether the Afghan authorities had even made a
formal request. When the Secretariat replied that the April 26
formal request had been circulated, Russia complained that
Afghanistan had not provided a report recently on its progress in
obtaining comparable debt relief from non-Paris Club creditors. The
U.S. asked whether provision of such a report would be sufficient;
the Russian delegate said that he did not have a mandate to support
extension. He said Afghanistan's performance on its PRGF program
had been weak and cited the "conditionality principle." Paris Club
Co-Chairman Coeure responded forcefully that the IMF Executive

PARIS 00000715 003 OF 019


Board, not the Paris Club, is the venue for discussing PRGF program
performance, and the IMF Executive Board had deemed Afghanistan's
performance satisfactory and approved the recent review. Coeure
agreed to seek an update from Afghanistan on comparability of
treatment so that the Club can agree in June to extend the interim
treatment. The Fund and Bank reported that Completion Point under
the HIPC Initiative could be reached by the end of 2009.

--------------
Argentina
--------------


4. (SBU) The U.S. had asked the Secretariat to place Argentina on
the agenda to discuss a proposed Brazilian loan to the state-owned
Aerolineas Argentinas or its subsidiary, Austral. During the
discussion, at which the Brazilian delegate was not present, the
Netherlands' representative, who also chairs the OECD Export Credit
Group, reported that the OECD had already dealt with the proposed
loan and that it was important to separate OECD issues from Paris
Club ones. She also indicated that there was some uncertainty about
the situation, including whether the loan had been agreed before the
airline had been nationalized and whether the airline could still be
treated as a private entity. She also argued that there was a
precedent for excluding commercial aircraft from Paris Club
treatment, noting a loan to Indonesia's Garuda.

PARIS 00000715 004 OF 019




5. (SBU) All agreed that the Paris Club had legitimate concerns,
since members had an informal agreement not to lend to Argentina.
Sweden pointed out, however, that the understanding was not binding,
and few of the national agencies represented at Paris Club meetings
could constrain their country's respective export credit agencies.
Germany commented that the Club's "gentlemen's agreement" was not
binding, but expressed interest in implications for the Paris Club's
outreach policy. The U.S. relayed Brazil's statements from the
April 21 OECD discussion that, since Brazil was not a member of the
Paris Club, it was not bound by Paris Club agreements. Furthermore,
Brazil had argued that Argentina was current in payments to Brazil.
The U.S. also noted that creditors that wish to cooperate with the
Paris Club, including participating in methodological discussions,
should support the Paris Club's positions and principles. The
Secretariat intends to ask Brazil for further details on the
proposed loan and report back, so that creditors can consider
further steps.


6. (SBU) The Secretariat also reported that there was "less and
less" news on President Fernandez de Kirchner's pledge to pay
Argentina's $8 billion owed to Paris Club creditors, noting that any
weakening of creditor solidarity would worsen the situation. The
IMF reported that international reserves remained robust at $46
billion in spite of an expected real GDP contraction of 1.5 percent

PARIS 00000715 005 OF 019


in 2009 and declining fiscal revenues and exports. However,
Argentina did have a large external borrowing requirement -- 15
percent of GDP in 2009 -- and its sovereign risk premium, already at
1,500 basis points, could rise further.

--------------
Central African Republic (CAR)
--------------


7. (SBU) The IMF reported that the CAR continued to make
satisfactory progress on its PRGF program, and the Bank reported
that the country had fulfilled all conditions for Completion Point
under the HIPC Initiative. The IMF Executive Board is scheduled to
approve Completion Point on June 24, with similar action expected at
the World Bank shortly thereafter. The IMF reported it was still
working to obtain financing assurances for the Completion Point debt
relief from at least one more of CAR's remaining external creditors:
Argentina, Taiwan, and China. The Paris Club expects to hold
negotiations with CAR in July or September to provide Completion
Point debt relief.

--------------
Republic of Congo (Brazzaville)
--------------


PARIS 00000715 006 OF 019



8. (SBU) To fulfill a requirement in the December 2008 Agreed
Minutes, Congo had reported to the Club that it had paid $800
million in full settlement of claims with its litigating creditors,
including so-called "vulture funds." The large amount was a
surprise to the Paris Club and to the IMF. Congo had reported that
the total $2.5 billion extinguished under the settlement, a much
larger amount of debt than previously reported, included penalties,
fees and late interest. Such a transaction implied a 65 percent
discount; however, the IMF and Bank representatives, as well as
creditors, were skeptical. After initially refusing on the grounds
of a confidentiality clause in the settlement, the authorities later
agreed to provide additional information to the Secretariat by the
end of May.


9. (SBU) The IMF reported that the global financial crisis had had
little impact on Congo in 2008 but was starting to negatively affect
GDP growth and the fiscal deficit. Congo's performance under the
PRGF program had been broadly satisfactory. The IMF noted, however,
that Congo must implement a new petroleum pricing regime and improve
commercialization of the oil industry before the first program
review could occur. Congo had completed or was close to fulfilling
six of eight conditions required for HIPC Completion Point, which
could be approved before the end of 2009.

--------------

PARIS 00000715 007 OF 019


Cote d'Ivoire
--------------


10. (SBU) Following the IMF and World Bank's March 2009 approval of
Cote d'Ivoire's PRGF program and HIPC Decision Point, Paris Club
creditors negotiated new "Agreed Minutes" with Cote d'Ivoire on May
14 and 15. When fully implemented over three years, the
multilateral debt treatment will cancel $845 million and reduce Cote
d'Ivoire's debt service to Paris Club creditors by 92 percent. The
negotiations with Cote d'Ivoire were unusually contentious because
the country had a large stock of private sector debt that had been
restructured in 1998, as well as a substantial amount of more
recently contracted, so-called "post-cutoff" debt. Despite Cote
d'Ivoire's unusually high capacity to pay, creditors had to
reschedule some of this post-cutoff debt, which the debtor country
would normally have been expected to pay on schedule.


11. (SBU) The May 15 Agreed Minutes provided standard so-called
"Cologne terms" on pre-cutoff debts, although the U.S. will follow
its HIPC policy and forgive 100 percent of arrears and amounts
coming due - about $262 million over three years. Post-cutoff
debts, short-term debts, and almost all interest payments will be
deferred but not reduced. Negotiations also centered on the
country's capacity to pay in 2009. Based on the IMF and
Secretariat's analyses, the Paris Club had initially proposed that

PARIS 00000715 008 OF 019


Cote d'Ivoire pay 3.85 percent of post-cutoff arrears in 2009, as
well as certain interest installments. The IMF analysis (and PRGF
program) assumed that the country would be able to borrow $600
million on the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU)
markets this year; the authorities argued that this was unlikely,
thus reducing their ability to pay in 2009. Creditors were
generally sympathetic to this argument and agreed to much lower
payments (1.2 percent) in 2009 and March 2010.


12. (SBU) Cote d'Ivoire also committed to seek comparable treatment
from its non-Paris Club creditors and, through a side letter to the
U.S. delegation, to pay on schedule the single U.S. loan contracted
after the June 20, 1999 Cologne G-8 summit. The Paris Club
ultimately agreed to this latter arrangement because of the cutoff
date specified in the U.S. HIPC legislation and the fact that the
U.S. forgives 100 percent of amounts coming due on loans made prior
to the Cologne Summit. However, a number of creditors questioned
whether the U.S. was fulfilling its Cologne Summit commitment. The
Ivoirian authorities also indicated that they would not make
payments to private creditors in 2009 and reaffirmed that they will
seek funding from the World Bank's Debt Reduction Facility to clear
arrears on the country's private sector Brady bonds.

--------------
Djibouti

PARIS 00000715 009 OF 019


--------------


13. (SBU) Some Paris Club creditors continued to report problems in
completing bilateral agreements to implement Djibouti's October 2008
Paris Club debt treatment. Belgium said it signed a bilateral in
February, while Germany and Italy reported that they had made good
progress and were close to signing. In a letter to France, Djibouti
disputed certain commercial debts. Seeking a treatment more
favorable than the terms of the Agreed Minutes, Djibouti indicated
that it would not sign unless Spain agreed.

--------------
Grenada
--------------


14. (SBU) The discussion again focused on comparable treatment, and
in particular whether the Club should grant a one-year extension of
Grenada's May 2006 Agreed Minutes even though Grenada had not sought
comparable treatment on a loan from Kuwait. After months of seeking
details, the Secretariat confirmed that the loan in question had
been made to the central government. Therefore, the Agreed Minutes'
clear exclusion of a Dutch loan to the Port Authority could not be
interpreted as justifying exclusion of the Kuwaiti loan. After
discussing the issue in five meetings, the IMF indicated for the
first time that its notes did reflect such an agreement to exclude

PARIS 00000715 010 OF 019


the Kuwaiti loan. Paris Club creditors expressed frustration with
the lack of detailed records, reluctantly granted the requested
extension, and called for proper records to avoid such problems in
the future.

--------------
Guinea
--------------


15. (SBU) The IMF was monitoring discussions on the political
situation, and in particular the international community's position.
The Fund wanted to protect the gains that Guinea had made, since
the country had nearly completed the HIPC Initiative just before the
coup. The Fund was looking at prospects for restoring economic
assistance and relief, and was discussing reengagement with members.
A joint Fund/Bank mission had visited Conakry in late March, and
had found the situation to be "precarious." The Bank reported that
it had stopped disbursements and was also considering its course of
action and talking to regional entities, including ECOWAS. Guinea
had met six of ten conditions necessary to reach HIPC Completion
Point and was working to meet the others; preparations were underway
for a new progress report on the PRSP.


16. (SBU) Guinea reported $5 million in arrears to Belgium, France
and the European Investment Bank. A second phase of Guinea's

PARIS 00000715 011 OF 019


interim treatment, which would have covered calendar year 2009, was
conditioned on the PRGF program's third review. Since the review
has not even been planned yet, the Secretariat intends to write to
Guinea to convey that the phase had not entered into force and that
the country was therefore required to make payments on the original
schedules. A number of countries, including the U.S., reported
having received letters asking for deferrals of payments to 2011.
Creditors agreed that countries should not reply individually; the
Paris Club's letter will serve as the response to Guinea's requests.


--------------
Haiti
--------------


17. (SBU) The IMF reported on the outcome of the April 14 donors'
conference, and noted that a mission was in Haiti to assess
performance on Completion Point triggers. The country "seemed to
be" on track and could reach Completion Point around mid-2009. The
Bank's detailed readout included the June 30 Executive Board date
and echoed the Fund's information on performance but neglected to
mention the status of the requirement that Haiti adopt and implement
a public procurement law for six months prior to Completion Point.
When the U.S. asked about it, the Bank representative indicated that
he had no information; the following day he reported that Bank staff

PARIS 00000715 012 OF 019


was indeed planning to seek a waiver of that performance
requirement.

--------------
Liberia
--------------


18. (SBU) Following the IMF Executive Board's May 7 approval of the
second review of Liberia's PRGF program, the Paris Club agreed to
enter into force the second stage of the country's interim
treatment. The Fund reported that the global slump was affecting
Liberia through lower demand and commodity prices. The authorities
had little space for counter-cyclical fiscal or monetary policy
because of the country's high levels of debt and dollarization,
respectively. Nevertheless, Liberia's performance under the PRGF
program was satisfactory.


19. (SBU) Liberia had made excellent progress in reducing its debt
stock. Liberia completed its World Bank and USG-supported
commercial debt buyback operation with 97.5 percent participation.
Liberia has also signed debt restructuring agreements with all
creditors except for four non-Paris Club bilateral creditors.
Although external debt had fallen below $2 billion, Liberia remained
in debt distress. Once Liberia completes the HIPC Initiative, its
debt levels will fall well below HIPC thresholds as long as it

PARIS 00000715 013 OF 019


maintains robust growth and controls new borrowing. The Fund
reported Liberia had made significant progress toward fulfilling the
HIPC performance requirements, with public sector reform the single
difficult issue remaining. The authorities hoped to reach
Completion Point by the end of 2009.

--------------
Moldova
--------------


20. (SBU) The IMF reported that Moldova had requested an 18-month
Stand-By Arrangement (SBA),given the country's unsustainable
financial situation. The new loan program's timing was uncertain,
however, since there could be delays in putting the new government
into place. The IMF planned to send another mission to Chisinau in
late May or early June to continue discussions and expected Moldova
to seek Paris Club debt relief to help finance the SBA. Although
the financing gap would be large, debt rescheduling, rather than
debt cancellation, was more likely. Moldova's four largest Paris
Club creditors include Russia, the U.S., Germany and Japan. Russia,
the largest creditor, asked about comparability of treatment,
perhaps a signal of plans to raise difficulties.

--------------
Peru

PARIS 00000715 014 OF 019


--------------


21. (SBU) Peru had invited France and Italy, the two creditors that
had not participated in the 2007 prepayment operation, to
participate now on the same terms, despite the August 2007 deadline.
Both indicated that they would. (Note: In May 2007, the Paris
Club concluded an agreement that allowed Peru to prepay at face
value up to $2.5 billion in previously rescheduled non-concessional
debt falling due between 2007-2015.) The IMF reported that Peru's
recent record of exceptional performance -- thirteen years of
uninterrupted growth, peaking at 10 percent in 2008 -- had begun to
slow in the last quarter of 2008. Financial indicators were stable,
since banks held no asset-backed securities, had limited reliance on
external funding, and faced little rollover risk.

--------------
Seychelles
--------------


22. (SBU) During the Paris Club's April negotiations with
Seychelles, the country had agreed to make a $1 million goodwill
payment immediately. The Secretariat presented a working paper with
three options on how the payments could be allocated. The U.S. is
not a creditor.


PARIS 00000715 015 OF 019


--------------
Zimbabwe
--------------


23. (SBU) The Secretariat produced a working paper laying out
possible steps to normalization of relations with creditors, either
through HIPC or non-HIPC channels. As in previous discussions on
this subject, creditors recalled that Zimbabwe was not included as a
potential HIPC-eligible country during the 2006 ring-fencing process
and that the lack of end-2004 data prevented an assessment of
whether Zimbabwe would have met HIPC's numerical income and debt
benchmarks. The IMF pointed out that preparing a HIPC debt
sustainability analysis, even for informational purposes, could be
seen as a signal of the international community's willingness to
move to change its rules and include Zimbabwe in the HIPC
Initiative. All agreed that such issues should be discussed at the
IMF and World Bank; any Paris Club involvement would come at a much
later stage.


24. (SBU) During the IMF Executive Board's May 4 discussion,
directors had welcomed the emergency recovery program, but noted
many downside risks. The Board had lifted some restrictions on
technical assistance. The Bank also stressed the need for technical
assistance and praised the government's realistic budget and strict
discipline in matching monthly income and expenditures. The Bank

PARIS 00000715 016 OF 019


reported that donors believed a multi-donor trust fund was the best
vehicle for moving forward, and said it would seek Board approval
for such a fund in May.

-------------- --
Methodological Issue:
Seniority of Crisis-Related Bilateral Financing
-------------- --


25. (SBU) There was a lengthy but inconclusive discussion of the
Secretariat's revised proposal to grant senior status to bilateral
loans made in conjunction with IMF upper credit tranche programs.
Some countries, most notably Japan, were generally supportive.
Japan suggested as broad a scope as possible (i.e. extending the
provision to World Bank-led operations) to accommodate Asian
countries like Indonesia that are averse to seeking Fund programs.
There was no support for this idea. Many others, including
Co-Chairman Coeure, criticized the suggestion, noting the tension
between this idea and the G-20's recent reaffirmation of the IMF's
central role. Delegations also discussed, inter alia, how the
proposal impacted the IFI's preferred creditor status, whether the
proposal should apply retroactively to loans made in the last few
months, what criteria should be used, and what effect the idea would
have on current creditors, and on bond spreads.


PARIS 00000715 017 OF 019



26. (SBU) Germany was the most skeptical about the idea; the U.S.
suggested that many of the subsidiary questions could be addressed
through carefully considering the purpose of the loans -- whether
they were meant to complement the IMF when it was bound by lending
limits, or whether it was more broadly intended to respond to the
crisis. The U.S. delegation, along with several others, made very
clear that it did not yet have a position on the proposal. In any
case, the Secretariat will revise the paper again. Germany stressed
the need to alert senior officials engaged in G-8 and G-20
channels.

--------------
Methodological Issue:
Treatment of Loan Guarantees
--------------


27. (SBU) The Secretariat had surveyed members on whether they
provide Paris Club treatment on loan guarantees that have not been
triggered by defaults. Although not all responses had been
received, it was clear that different creditors used different
methods. While some creditors report all guarantees and subject
them to restructuring, others report non-triggered guarantees only
when specifically requested in the data call. Creditors generally
agreed that the approach should be uniform. The Secretariat will
prepare a working paper. There could be significant implications of

PARIS 00000715 018 OF 019


forcing performing loans into default.

--------------
Methodological Issue:
June 2009 Meeting with
Private and Outreach Creditors
--------------


28. (SBU) The Paris Club's annual meeting with private and outreach
creditors will take place on June 25. The agenda, as agreed with
the Institute for International Finance (IIF),will focus on
implementation of the IIF's Principles for Stable Capital Flows and
Fair Debt Restructuring in Emerging Markets (including specifically
Ecuador and likely Argentina),sovereign debt reconciliation,
so-called "vulture funds" and litigation related to sovereign debt,
and the Paris Club's recent activities (including Seychelles, Cote
d'Ivoire and the Republic of Congo).


29. (SBU) The meeting will be followed by a broader conference on
the crisis and its implications for emerging and developing
countries, which Economy Minister Lagarde will open and close. The
Secretariat explained that this meeting aims to show that the Paris
Club is actively engaged in addressing the global financial crisis.


30. (U) For additional information on any country in particular,

PARIS 00000715 019 OF 019


please contact David Freudenwald or Nicholle Manz in EEB/IFD/OMA.

PEKALA