Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09PARIS324
2009-03-05 12:07:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Paris
Cable title:
GUINEA-BISSAU: FRANCE THINKS ELECTIONS ARE THE
how-toVZCZCXRO6165 PP RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHMR RUEHPA RUEHRN RUEHTRO DE RUEHFR #0324/01 0641207 ZNY CCCCC ZZH P 051207Z MAR 09 FM AMEMBASSY PARIS TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5684 INFO RUEHZO/AFRICAN UNION COLLECTIVE RUEHGG/UN SECURITY COUNCIL COLLECTIVE RUEHLI/AMEMBASSY LISBON 1083 RHMFISS/HQ USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS 2533 RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 000324
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/05/2019
TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL SNAR PU FR
SUBJECT: GUINEA-BISSAU: FRANCE THINKS ELECTIONS ARE THE
KEY NEXT STEP
REF: A. DAKAR 263
B. DAKAR 275
C. USUN 209
PARIS 00000324 001.5 OF 002
Classified By: Political Counselor Andrew Young, 1.4 (b/d).
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 000324
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/05/2019
TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL SNAR PU FR
SUBJECT: GUINEA-BISSAU: FRANCE THINKS ELECTIONS ARE THE
KEY NEXT STEP
REF: A. DAKAR 263
B. DAKAR 275
C. USUN 209
PARIS 00000324 001.5 OF 002
Classified By: Political Counselor Andrew Young, 1.4 (b/d).
1. (C) SUMMARY: France believes that it is imperative that
presidential elections be held in Guinea-Bissau within the
60-day time-frame specified in the Guinea-Bissau
constitution, MFA deskoff Ann'laure Hare said on March 4.
The GOF is considering ways France can assist with elections
but the issue has not yet become a subject of EU discussion.
Hare said that President Vieira's death did not appear to be
part of a classic coup attempt but rather the result of his
problems with CHOD General Tagme Na Wai, who was killed just
prior to Vieira's death. France is concerned that the
instability in Guinea-Bissau may make the narco-trafficking
problem in Guinea-Bissau worse than it already is. END
SUMMARY.
Elections
--------------
2. (C) We met with MFA Guinea-Bissau deskoff Ann'laure Hare
on March 4 to discuss the GOF's reaction to recent events in
Guinea-Bissau (reftels). Hare said that the most important
issue was whether Guinea-Bissau would hold elections within
the 60-day period specified in its constitution in this kind
of situation. She believed that the clock had started
ticking with the taking of office of interim President
Raimundo Pereira (former National Assembly President) on
March 3. Holding the elections before 60 days passed was
important because if such elections were not held, the
constitution contained no provisions on how the country would
be governed. If Guinea-Bissau entered into a
constitutionally uncertain vacuum, further instability could
ensue, which would only benefit the already large and
powerful narco-trafficking groups active in Guinea-Bissau.
3. (C) Hare said that intra-GOF discussions were continuing
on how France and the EU could help Guinea-Bissau quickly
organize elections. She said that the discussions were still
internal to the GOF and that the issue had not yet become a
subject for broader EU consideration. She indicated,
however, that the EU was likely to take up the issue sooner
rather than later.
What Happened?
--------------
4. (C) Acknowledging that reliable information about recent
events was difficult to obtain, Hare said that it seemed
apparent that Vieira was killed in response to the earlier
killing of CHOD General Tagme. It was not clear, however,
that Vieira was involved in Tagme's death. Hare said that
using a car bomb such as the one that killed Tagme was not a
typical method used by Africans. There were also indications
that the bomb was relatively sophisticated and possibly not
within the expertise of local elements that might have wanted
to kill Tagme. Hare speculated that Tagme was killed by
international drug-traffickers who had some sort of gripe
against Tagme. Unfortunately for Vieira, Tagme loyalists
apparently assumed that Vieira was behind the bombing and
went after him.
New Political Landscape
--------------
5. (C) Hare said that interim President Raimundo Pereira
did not want to become president and more or less had it
forced on him by operation of the constitution. She reported
that Pereira seemed "terrified" and was hunkered down in an
effort to maximize his own and his family's security. Hare
was not sure when or if Pereira would actively engage as
president, making the timely holding of elections, and the
international community's support for such elections, all the
more important. Hare said that the best-positioned political
leader still standing was PM Carlos Gomes, who continued in
office. Hare speculated that former President Kumba Yala
would also no doubt try to regain political prominence.
On the Ground
--------------
6. (C) The French Ambassador in Guinea-Bissau was able to
circulate freely and to contact GOGB officials, Hare
reported, which indicated that some semblance of "normalcy"
now prevailed. However, Hare cautioned that we were still in
a very early stage following this national trauma and that it
PARIS 00000324 002.4 OF 002
was by no means certain that a return to normalcy would
continue. The question of the elections remained, along
with, Hare stressed, the possibility that the
narco-traffickers would try to assert even greater influence
in the impoverished and directionless country.
PEKALA
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/05/2019
TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL SNAR PU FR
SUBJECT: GUINEA-BISSAU: FRANCE THINKS ELECTIONS ARE THE
KEY NEXT STEP
REF: A. DAKAR 263
B. DAKAR 275
C. USUN 209
PARIS 00000324 001.5 OF 002
Classified By: Political Counselor Andrew Young, 1.4 (b/d).
1. (C) SUMMARY: France believes that it is imperative that
presidential elections be held in Guinea-Bissau within the
60-day time-frame specified in the Guinea-Bissau
constitution, MFA deskoff Ann'laure Hare said on March 4.
The GOF is considering ways France can assist with elections
but the issue has not yet become a subject of EU discussion.
Hare said that President Vieira's death did not appear to be
part of a classic coup attempt but rather the result of his
problems with CHOD General Tagme Na Wai, who was killed just
prior to Vieira's death. France is concerned that the
instability in Guinea-Bissau may make the narco-trafficking
problem in Guinea-Bissau worse than it already is. END
SUMMARY.
Elections
--------------
2. (C) We met with MFA Guinea-Bissau deskoff Ann'laure Hare
on March 4 to discuss the GOF's reaction to recent events in
Guinea-Bissau (reftels). Hare said that the most important
issue was whether Guinea-Bissau would hold elections within
the 60-day period specified in its constitution in this kind
of situation. She believed that the clock had started
ticking with the taking of office of interim President
Raimundo Pereira (former National Assembly President) on
March 3. Holding the elections before 60 days passed was
important because if such elections were not held, the
constitution contained no provisions on how the country would
be governed. If Guinea-Bissau entered into a
constitutionally uncertain vacuum, further instability could
ensue, which would only benefit the already large and
powerful narco-trafficking groups active in Guinea-Bissau.
3. (C) Hare said that intra-GOF discussions were continuing
on how France and the EU could help Guinea-Bissau quickly
organize elections. She said that the discussions were still
internal to the GOF and that the issue had not yet become a
subject for broader EU consideration. She indicated,
however, that the EU was likely to take up the issue sooner
rather than later.
What Happened?
--------------
4. (C) Acknowledging that reliable information about recent
events was difficult to obtain, Hare said that it seemed
apparent that Vieira was killed in response to the earlier
killing of CHOD General Tagme. It was not clear, however,
that Vieira was involved in Tagme's death. Hare said that
using a car bomb such as the one that killed Tagme was not a
typical method used by Africans. There were also indications
that the bomb was relatively sophisticated and possibly not
within the expertise of local elements that might have wanted
to kill Tagme. Hare speculated that Tagme was killed by
international drug-traffickers who had some sort of gripe
against Tagme. Unfortunately for Vieira, Tagme loyalists
apparently assumed that Vieira was behind the bombing and
went after him.
New Political Landscape
--------------
5. (C) Hare said that interim President Raimundo Pereira
did not want to become president and more or less had it
forced on him by operation of the constitution. She reported
that Pereira seemed "terrified" and was hunkered down in an
effort to maximize his own and his family's security. Hare
was not sure when or if Pereira would actively engage as
president, making the timely holding of elections, and the
international community's support for such elections, all the
more important. Hare said that the best-positioned political
leader still standing was PM Carlos Gomes, who continued in
office. Hare speculated that former President Kumba Yala
would also no doubt try to regain political prominence.
On the Ground
--------------
6. (C) The French Ambassador in Guinea-Bissau was able to
circulate freely and to contact GOGB officials, Hare
reported, which indicated that some semblance of "normalcy"
now prevailed. However, Hare cautioned that we were still in
a very early stage following this national trauma and that it
PARIS 00000324 002.4 OF 002
was by no means certain that a return to normalcy would
continue. The question of the elections remained, along
with, Hare stressed, the possibility that the
narco-traffickers would try to assert even greater influence
in the impoverished and directionless country.
PEKALA