CONGO-B'S PARIS-BASED "GOVERNMENT IN EXILE"

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 001600

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/C

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/30/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV KCOR CF FR
SUBJECT: CONGO-B'S PARIS-BASED "GOVERNMENT IN EXILE"

Classified By: Andrew Young, Political Counselor, reason 1.4 (b and d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Self-styled Prime Minister of the
Government in Exile of the Republic of Congo, Tony Gilbert
Moudilou, insisted that President Sassou Nguesso Nguesso "has
to go." Moudilou asserted that Sassou Nguesso is physically
and mentally ill, and that the President's goal is to pave
the way for his son's succession, further degrading the
country's democracy. Moudilou insists that the government
needs to engage in an open dialog with all major opposition
figures, even as he promotes his own "administration."
Moudilou wants U.S. help and claims to be demanding that
France stop supporting Sassou Nguesso. END SUMMARY.

SASSOU NGUESSO IS THE PROBLEM
--------------

2. (C) After insisting on a meeting with the Embassy,
self-described Prime Minister of the Government in Exile of
the Republic of Congo, Tony Gilbert Moudilou, who was
accompanied by his "Secretary General," Eric Patrick Mampouy,
told Africa Watcher on November 4 that President Sassou
Nguesso is "destroying" the Republic of Congo, both
politically and economically and "has to go." Moudilou
asserted that only five percent of the population voted in
the July 2009 Presidential elections, after the main
opposition parties boycotted. There is no independent
legislative branch because Sassou Nguesso essentially
appointed all the deputies. According to Moudilou, most of
the serious opposition has been forced into exile and cannot
return to the ROC without facing arrest or assassination.
The opposition that remains in the country is granted no
political space, and cannot freely move about the country.
Political rallies are not allowed.


3. (C) Sassou Nguesso has "manufactured" security threats to
his administration in order to create the pretext for his
overwhelming internal security apparatus, and now is planning
to change the constitution to allow him to pursue another
presidential mandate or some other manipulation, Moudilou
asserted. Much of the President's focus is now on assuring
that his son can succeed him. At the same time, Sassou
Nguesso rules by fiat, and hasn't held a routine cabinet
meeting (conseil des ministres) in more than two years.


4. (C) Economically, in Moudilou's assessment, the ROC is
becoming poorer, while the ruling elite are grabbing all the
country's wealth for themselves. The corruption in the
government is not even subtle. He alleged that the GROC has
poor budget execution, cannot meet its World Bank and IMF
conditionality, and therefore is not making progress on debt
reduction. There is no public investment by the government,
as demonstrated by the country's deteriorating
infrastructure. Moudilou claimed that the national
hospital's elevator does not work and its toilets don't
flush.

SASSOU NGUESSO'S POOR PHYSICAL AND MENTAL HEALTH
--------------

5. (C) Sassou Nguesso can longer portray himself as a strong
and dynamic leader, because his health is failing and his
poor decision-making is clear to everyone, according to
Moudilou, who claimed that Sassou Nguesso is afflicted with
prostate cancer and suffers from a deep depression brought on
by the recent deaths of his daughter and of Gabonese
President Omar Bongo. As a result, Sassou Nguesso no longer
likes to travel and is not up to the task of being an
international statesman. According to Moudilou, even Sassou
Nguesso's close advisors and the military leadership are
disillusioned by "their president's" failing leadership.


6. (C) Moudilou believes that Sassou Nguesso understands
that the situation in ROC is not sustainable and that the
government needs to reach out to the opposition. Moudilou
claims that he has been contacted by highly placed advisors
to Sassou Nguesso with requests for private meetings.
Moudilou stated that he refused these offers and is sticking
to his group's request that the government hold an open
roundtable dialog with all the main opposition parties. He
explained that he is reluctant to meet privately with GOROC
officials or emissaries out of concern of an assassination
attempt, or, in keeping his head, that he will be perceived
as being co-opted by Sassou Nguesso.

WANTS U.S. "HELP"
--------------

7. (C) Moudilou stated numerous times that he and his group
need U.S. assistance, but was not forthcoming in identifying
what type of help he was hoping for, though it seems that
direct financial payments are part of his wish list. Paris
Africa Watcher explained that the U.S. typically does not

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fund political parties or exile groups, and that he should
attempt to engage with our embassy in Brazzaville should he
have specific ideas for enhancing the ROC's civil society.
Moudilou noted that the most important thing is for foreign
powers to understand the dire state of his country and not
help "prop-up" Sassou Nguesso. This was the message Moudilou
claimed he is also delivering to France, adding that France
should help Sassou Nguesso leave. In the meantime, Moudilou
will continue to hold his own "conseil des ministres"
meetings in Paris and share the resulting policies of "his
government."

COMMENT
--------------

8. (C) We have no gauge of Moudilou's credibility, nor of
the validity of his fears of persecution that preclude him
from pursuing his opposition credentials in Brazzaville.
However, in a city full of African diaspora and opposition
leaders, Moudilou and Mampouya appear very unwilling to dirty
their hands with the real rough and tumble necessary to make
political headway against a talented and entrenched strongman
like Sassou Nguesso. We will see what they have to say in
the future, particularly if some momentum towards a new
political dialog is realized. Sassou Nguesso has long been
close to France, but this should be a good time for ROC's
opposition leaders to cultivate better relations with the
GOF, particularly if Sassou Nguesso is indeed trying to
manipulate the ROC's constitution and move towards a
hereditary succession. Given Sarkozy's public statements in
favor of a more open and rational Africa policy, such moves
by Sassou Nguesso will at a minimum likely provoke new
Mauritania/Niger-style heartburn at the Elysee. That is,
France's "old ways" particularly with an eye towards security
and stability in Francophone Africa are widely viewed as
still trumping any strong stance against anti-democratic
behavior.
RIVKIN