Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09PARIS1471
2009-11-02 17:39:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Paris
Cable title:  

TOGO'S UFC LEADER GILCHRIST OLYMPIO CONTINUES HIS

Tags:  PREL PGOV KCOR EINV TO CH GH FR 
pdf how-to read a cable
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TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7465
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 001471 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/02/2029
TAGS: PREL PGOV KCOR EINV TO CH GH FR
SUBJECT: TOGO'S UFC LEADER GILCHRIST OLYMPIO CONTINUES HIS
QUEST FOR THE PRESIDENCY

REF: LOME 401 (NOTAL)

Classified By: Classified By: Andrew Young, Political Counselor, reason
1.4 (b and d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 001471

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/02/2029
TAGS: PREL PGOV KCOR EINV TO CH GH FR
SUBJECT: TOGO'S UFC LEADER GILCHRIST OLYMPIO CONTINUES HIS
QUEST FOR THE PRESIDENCY

REF: LOME 401 (NOTAL)

Classified By: Classified By: Andrew Young, Political Counselor, reason
1.4 (b and d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Meeting with us on October 26, Togolese
opposition leader Gilchrist Olympio was relaxed and at ease
as he discussed his electoral prospects. He said he had
overcome several procedural obstacles and was ready to
campaign actively for the presidency. He asked that the
U.S., along with other concerned countries, provide election
observers and to pressure the Faure government into holding
clean elections, which he was convinced he could and would
win. Still, despite a generally optimistic outlook, Olympio
at every turn noted the Faure government's ability and
willingness to steal the election, no matter what Faure's
opponents might do, how well they might run, or whatever
pressures the international community might place on the
regime. While Olympio seemed more energetic and alert than
we have seen him in the past, the question remains as to how
much real appeal he has for today's Togolese voters and the
extent to which they identify with him as their desired
leader. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) During a two-plus hour meeting on October 26 with
Pol/AF-watcher and Embassy AF-assistant, Gilchrist Olympio,
the head of Togo's Union Forces of Change (UFC) party,
expressed his determination to run in the February
Presidential election. Sitting in his opulent Paris
apartment, accompanied by his political aide, Isaac Tchiakpe,
Olympio barely acknowledged the existence of other opposition
parties, and claimed that the UFC is the largest party in the
country, "by far."

FAURE WILL ACT TO UNDERMINE HONEST ELECTIONS
--------------

3. (C) Olympio expressed determination to not only run in
the upcoming elections, but to also deploy a nation-wide
party organization capable of monitoring the vote, verifying
the results, and reliably sharing this information from the
field. He also wondered if the U.S. couldn't help fund this
effort, particularly by providing satellite phones and

computer equipment. According to Olympio, President Faure's
government, as it did for the 2005 vote, will not only
attempt to cheat on the results, but will also attempt to
limit the ability of the opposition or outside observers to
monitor the election. Olympio claims that in 2005, the
government shut down cell phone networks, including for text
messages, and also blocked access to the internet. Olympio's
UFC party had established a communications center in Ghana,
but, in Olympio's telling, at the urging of Faure, local
Ghanaian officials also shut down communications near the
Togo border, effectively thwarting the UFC's efforts.

THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY SHOULD PAY ATTENTION; HELP
-------------- --------------

4. (C) Olympio stated that "it is clear the government will
commit fraud, it's just a question of if it will be
successful enough to again steal the election." For this
reason, he hopes the international community will provide a
robust election observer mission, and he hopes the U.S., in
particular, will be involved, adding that he has already been
in touch with the Carter Center. He was dismissive of the
capacity (and political will) of the African Union and ECOWAS
to play a positive role in assuring a fair result.


5. (C) In Olympio's calculation, the UFC candidate should
dominate the vote. When asked how he can be so certain, he
claimed that the UFC is the biggest party "by far" in Togo,
and also citied the example of the most recent legislative
elections where the UFC won an equal share of the popular
vote, "without even campaigning hard," although its voting
strength did not translate into a commensurate share of seats
because of effective GOT gerrymandering. Olympio did not
refer to the internal friction within the opposition noted in
reftel; throughout the meeting he spoke of the "opposition"
and his own candidacy as they were one and the same.


6. (C) In Olympio's view, if the EU and the U.S. "assure the
vote result is honest," Togo will have a truly democratic
transition for the first time. He demurred from answering
questions about how far Faure would go to assure his own
victory, or how the UFC would respond if it felt again
cheated by the outcome. After the meeting, Olympio's
political aide, Isaac Tchiakpe, told us he would like to
discuss further the "what ifs."

"THAT BOY" IS DESTROYING OUR COUNTRY
--------------

7. (C) President Faure was not mentioned by name during the

PARIS 00001471 002 OF 002


meeting -- Olympio referred to him, as is his habit, only as
"that boy", as in, "that small boy is destroying our
country." In particular, Olympio criticized the current
government for massive corruption and political patronage,
claiming that the Faure is now driving a Rolls Royce, while
his entourage travels in Hummers. Togo's economy is
collapsing, poverty is increasing, and ethnic tensions are
high, Olympio told us.

"I'M GOING TO TOGO AND I MIGHT NOT COME BACK"
--------------

8. (C) Olympio plans to travel to Togo soon, perhaps stopping
first at his home in Ghana. Though the official campaign is
limited to two weeks, Olympio plans to stay in Togo until the
formal election season. In addition to becoming more visible
in his country, Olympio also wants to be involved in the
technical and logistic aspects of the election. He asserted
that the parties are still negotiating whether the president
will be chosen in one or two rounds. Olympio claimed he also
needs to establish security for himself and his party's
leaders and added that he might not be back in Paris "for a
long time" and also hinted that the government could "again"
try to kill him. Olympio spoke favorably of Ambassador
Hawkins and said he hoped to meet with her shortly after he
arrived in Lome.


9. (C) Olympio said that he had overcome three looming
problems via negotiations with the GOT: whether he was
eligible to run because of his dual nationality status (his
Ghanaian citizenship),his residency status, and his lack of
tax debt to the GOT. He said that these points were all
successfully negotiated in his favor, clearing procedural
obstacles to his candidacy.

CHINESE AID AND VOLUNTEERS TO TOGO
--------------

10. (C) When asked about China's involvement in Togo, and if
the Chinese were likely supporting Faure, Olympio said that
China was comfortable with the current government and was
looking to expand its presence in Togo. In particular, China
is eyeing opportunities for exploiting the country's
phosphates deposits, and Olympio admitted that the country
needs help with this because the remaining resource requires
significant investment and technical ability. Alluding to a
"Chinese Peace Corps," Olympio added that Togo is one of the
first African countries to receive Chinese "young
volunteers," apparently 20 at first, with 17 in Lome and
three in Kara.

COMMENT
--------------

11. (C) Olympio was relaxed, seemingly in good spirits, and
a bit more energized than we have seen him in the past,
perhaps due to the prospect of his near-certain participation
in an election that is likely to be conducted in an
atmosphere more favorable than any other Togolese election
since independence. Yet, he displayed a mindset that we have
seen on several occasions in the past -- a certain
resignation that the Faure government, like the Eyadema
government, is willing and able to use the powers of state to
thwart Olympio's ambitions, and that he can only win if
allowed to win. Thus, while he believes he can win, should
win, and deserves to win, he is nonetheless subject to the
will of the Faure government. So, even while making the most
optimistic assessments, he would, in the next sentence,
acknowledge the regime's relatively total control over what
happens in Togo.


12. (C) Moreover, despite his personal quest to become
Togo's leader, itself driven by the past, Olympio is
handicapped by the fact that it is hard to imagine very many
of today's voters in Togo identifying with this urbane,
cosmopolitan elderly gentleman with roots in another era, who
appears to have little in common with those whose votes he
seeks. His status as opposition leader probably gains him
far more votes than does his name and family history, or
whatever personal or policy alternative he may offer to
Togolese voters.

RIVKIN