AMBASSADOR KNIGHT'S DISCUSSIONS WITH FRENCH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 001459

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/W

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/29/2029
TAGS: PREL KDEM PGOV KCOR PINR BN FR
SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR KNIGHT'S DISCUSSIONS WITH FRENCH
OFFICIALS ON BENIN

Classified By: Andrew Young, Political Counselor, reason 1.4 (b and d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: New U.S. Ambassador to Benin, James Knight,
on October 23 received from French officials a mixed
assessment of the current social, political, and economic
situation in the country. France hopes that President Yayi
can display a more results-oriented leadership style but are
concerned that he could become distracted by his 2011
reelection bid. So far, the French believe Benin has been
relatively successful in maintaining state/governance
influence over the country despite the economic reality of
corruption and regional trafficking networks. We believe
France is willing to have an open dialogue with the U.S.
about Benin, and perhaps improve coordination on political
messages and assistance programs. END SUMMARY.

President Boni Yayi Is on a "Permanent Campaign" But Keeps
His Word to France
-------------- --------------

2. (C) Remi Marechaux, one of two staff advisors on Africa
at the French presidency, met with new U.S. Ambassador to
Benin James Knight on October 23. Marechaux said that Benin
was not doing well politically or economically but said that
President Boni Yayi always kept his word to France on many
commitments and promises. Marechaux cited several of Yayi's
shortcomings -- his status as a minority president, his
failure to build political alliances, his impulsive and
erratic style of governing, and his failure to carry out
announced programs. That said, Marechaux said that Yayi was
not personally corrupt and that he had the education and
background to be president. Marechaux noted ruefully that
Yayi seemed to be in perpetual campaign mode, "always
promising but never delivering."


3. (C) With elections looming in 2011, Yayi was already well
into campaign mode for those elections. A united opposition
could present a serious challenge, Marechaux stated.
Marechaux expressed concern that Yayi had begun mentioning
"regional" issues in Benin in connection with municipal
elections, which was one way of indirectly appealing to
ethnic divisions in the country and which was not a positive
sign, Marechaux conceded. Yayi often resorted to
demagoguery, and Marechaux said he hoped Yayi would keep this
tendency in check.


4. (C) Having described Yayi's weaknesses, Marechaux said
that "despite everything, we like him, in large part because
he's reliable." (NOTE: This "reliability" factor seemed to
loom large in Marechaux's evaluation of Yayi. END NOTE.)
Bilateral relations were good, and Benin was a frequent
destination of French leaders and officials. Marechaux said
there was no clear evidence of drug trafficking in Benin but
the country remained vulnerable because of its proximity to
Nigeria and the long tradition in Benin of smuggling of all
sorts. Referring to indications that Equatorial Guinea's
President Obiang was drawing closer to Yayi, Marechaux said
that the reason was clearly "money."

Balancing Good Governance and a Corruption-based Economy
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5. (C) In a later meeting on October 23, Jerome Spinoza, the
West Africa analyst at the MOD's Delegation for Strategic
Affairs, told Ambassador Knight and Poloff that Benin "seems
to be doing O.K." and did not elaborate further in terms of
evaluating its current outlook. Instead, Spinoza described
Benin as important to France because it is "the Latin
Quarter" of Francophone Africa, explaining that the country
has long tradition of education and intellectualism, as well
as well-established state institutions, along the French
model.


6. (C) France, the EU, and Belgium are all looking to
support Benin's maritime security structures in response to
trafficking networks and illegal fishing, and Spinoza
suggested that better coordination with similar U.S. efforts
would be helpful. To date, Benin has been able to maintain a
balance in playing foreign assistance-driven state control
and an economy based on regional corruption networks, but
trouble could be on the horizon if drug traffickers and
various regional "mafia" become stronger -- perhaps inspiring
the rise of a Beninois "strong-man." Spinoza clarified,
however, that a military-led coup is unlikely because Benin
keeps about one-third of its forces outside the country on
peacekeeping missions, and that Benin's military does not
have a "Spartan" mentality.


7. (C) COMMENT: Our impression is that France will work to
maintain influence with Yayi and in Benin more broadly and

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hope that it can remain a stable and functional example of
France's legacy in Africa. However, Spinoza, more so than
Marechaux, expressed concern about the threat posed to the
country's stability by prevalent corruption and regional
trafficking networks. Should these officials have occasion
to travel to Benin we would propose that Embassy Cotonou
senior staff share their impressions of the situation on the
ground. France appears willing to have an open dialogue with
the U.S. about Benin, and perhaps improve coordination on
political messages and assistance programs. END COMMENT.


8. (U) Ambassador James Knight has cleared this message.
RIVKIN