MFA STRATEGIC AFFAIRS DIRECTOR ON AFGHANISTAN,

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 001412

NOFORN
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/21/2019
TAGS: PREL PARM MARR MOPS KCFE NATO EUN AF KG JA
IR, IT, FR
SUBJECT: MFA STRATEGIC AFFAIRS DIRECTOR ON AFGHANISTAN,
DISARMAMENT, EUROPEAN SECURITY, AND MORE

REF: A. BISHKEK 986

B. NATO 453

C. PARIS 1393

Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Kathy Allegrone, Reasons 1.
4 (b),(d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: On the heels of an early October trip to
Washington, recently-appointed MFA Strategic Affairs Director
(A/S-equivalent) Patrick Maisonnave updated post October 16
on GOF thinking on Afghanistan, where France cannot
contribute more militarily, but may have room for more
civilian support; Nuclear disarmament, where U.S. policy
continues to be a source of French concern; European
security, where the French say new thinking about CFE and
Corfu may be merited; NATO reform, which for France is driven
by resource limitations, but is also about strategy; and EU
sanctions against Iran, which Maisonnave sees as highly
unlikely. END SUMMARY.

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Afghanistan: French Contribution
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2. (C) Maisonnave began the discussion by expressing the GOF
belief that a Karzai deal with Abdullah may present one
positive way out of the current legitimacy crisis, adding
that Foreign Minister Kouchner would go to Afghanistan on
October 17-18 to meet with Karzai and Abdullah to discuss the
situation. As for French efforts in Afghanistan, Maisonnave
referred to an interview with President Sarkozy that had
appeared that morning in centrist daily Le Figaro in which
Sarkozy said France "will not sent one more soldier."
Maisonnave clarified that the French military was both
willing and able to contribute more to the international
effort in Afghanistan, but that strong public opposition to
the war in France made it politically impossible for Sarkozy
to approve further deployments. Maisonnave also said that,
while France agreed with the McChrystal report, the French
did not feel especially "targeted" by potential requests for
new deployments since French forces were already serving in a
dangerous area. He added that President Sarkozy was
referring in the interview specifically to combat troops, and
that further civilian support may be possible for France.

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Afghanistan: EGF, Manas, and AWACS
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3. (C) According to Maisonnave, the French contingent of the
European Gendarmerie Force (EGF) will arrive in full force in
Mazar-i-Sharif by December 1. The GOF still hopes training
facilities in Kabul will be ready in time to move its
gendarmes there by summer 2010. Maisonnave was entirely
unaware that the French military had left Manas air base, and
in fact noted it down, saying he would look into it further.
Prior to Bishkek reporting (ref A) that the French and
Spanish had pulled out, our various interlocutors had
indicated all was well with the negotiations for Manas, most
recently during a discussion with Deputy Diplomatic Counselor
at the Elysee Damien Loras on October 14. On the French vote
against common funding for the AWACS at the NATO Senior
Resource Board (ref B),Maisonnave reiterated that France
does not oppose the AWACS deployment, but said that France
was working with the British on funding issues with a view
towards moving forward.

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Nuclear Disarmament
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4. (C) Having attended the recent P3 consultations on the
2010 Non-Proliferation Treaty Review Conference (NPT RevCon)
and Fissile Materials Cutoff Treaty (FMCT) in Washington on
October 9, Maisonnave cautioned that it seems we do not share
the same objectives with the same degree of intensity. The
United States is focused almost exclusively on disarmament
and is not ready to fight for key nonproliferation goals at
the RevCon while, for its part, France is not ready to pay
any price for a satisfactory consensus. Pulling out a cabled
report, Maisonnave said France was taken by surprise that the
United States not only dropped opposition to Japan's yearly
First Committee resolution "Renewed Determination towards the
Total Elimination of Nuclear Weapons," submitted October 15,
but has now signed on as a co-sponsor. He said France would
vote against the resolution again this year and had
understood the United States would do so as well. Maisonnave
recognized the absolute right of the United States to change
its position, but the shift from opposition to
co-sponsorship, without a heads up to France or other

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partners, was disappointing. Maisonnave said France was
looking at this as a possible "road sign" in the run-up to
the RevCon of a growing divergence in our positions. He
stressed France's desire for continuing P3 unity and
coordination, to the extent possible, given the other
obstacles to success in this area.

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European Security
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5. (C) Asked about France's thinking on European security,
Maisonnave said during the October 1 bilateral "2-plus-2"
meeting of foreign and defense ministers in Moscow, FM
Kouchner proposed a bilateral working group on the issue.
Saying he himself would go to Moscow in early November to
follow up, Maisonnave was even more cautious on the issue
than other recent GOF interlocutors (ref C). However, he
repeated that it might be time to reflect on European
security, adding specifically on the Treaty on Conventional
Forces in Europe (CFE) that "some say the Istanbul
Commitments were wrong, and some say that CFE is good, but
needs work." Maisonnave said the goal was to help the Corfu
process on European security, and that in order to do this,
it might be worth considering new negotiations on CFE.

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NATO Reform
--------------


6. (S/NF) Maisonnave said during his recent trip to
Washington he noticed that the Department of Defense seemed
strongly committed to NATO reform, while the Department of
State seemed more cautious, wanting to take into account
varying positions of other Allies. In France, Maisonnave
said, the situation was the opposite. The MFA, along with
the Elysee, was very much in favor of NATO reform while the
Ministry of Defense was more "conservative." He said the
MFA's desire for reform was resource-driven, especially since
France had determined that its re-integration into NATO's
military command would require as many as 1,200 French staff.
In terms of strategic focus, Maisonnave, who until his
recent appointment as Strategic Affairs Director was head of
the EU Common Foreign and Security Policy office at the MFA,
cautioned that "some new EU members" had been complaining
that NATO should not be in Afghanistan, but firmly in Europe.
He added that any withdrawal of tactical nuclear weapons
from Europe would exacerbate this attitude.

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EU Sanctions against Iran
--------------


7. (C) Maisonnave said EU sanctions against Iran are
extremely unlikely. He said it might be possible to overcome
isolated opposition, but that a block of seven or eight
member states had formed, including among others Italy,
Austria, Spain, Portugal, and probably Sweden, with Italy
taking the hardest line.
RIVKIN