POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER FRENCH CONTRIBUTIONS IN

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 PARIS 000114

NOFORN
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/23/2019
TAGS: NATO MCAP MOPS PREL MGOV MARR FR AF
SUBJECT: POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER FRENCH CONTRIBUTIONS IN
AFGHANISTAN

REF: A. PARIS POINTS FOR 12/13/2008

B. IIR 6 832 0569 09

C. STATE 125172

D. 08 STATE 131480

E. 08 PARIS 64

F. 07 PARIS 4615

Classified By: Charge Mark A. Pekala for reasons 1.4(b) and (d).


1. (C) As Washington prepares for possible requests to
allies on Afghanistan, this cable lays out French military
and civilian capabilities and identifies potential areas for
additional French efforts. French officials expect
Afghanistan to be a major focus of the 60th anniversary NATO
summit to be held in Strasbourg and Baden-Baden in early
April and are anxious for the summit to be a successful
showcase of alliance unity. Coincidentally, a planned French
restructuring of its defense posture in Cote d'Ivoire,
Senegal and Gabon, as well as the end of the EUFOR mission in
Chad and expected adjustment of KFOR in Kosovo provide a
possible window to reduce forces in these regions and to
increase French resources in Afghanistan. To this end,
French military planners have already quietly begun
identifying a possible 1000-2000 additional troops who could
supplement their current deployments in RC-East. But the
final decision on increasing troops will ultimately be a
political one, taken by the French President himself. The
French Defense Minister has been publicly denying an
increased role in Afghanistan in advance of a January 28
parliamentary vote on foreign deployments, but this has been
negated by other French officials who view the Minister's
statements as a political move to keep the Afghanistan
conflict from affecting the vote. French political leaders
have continually stressed that there is no "purely military"
solution to Afghanistan and said they want to see more
resources directed to the "Afghanization" of our effort and
the gradual turn over of responsibility to the relevant
Afghan authorities. Despite hosting a high-profile pledging
conference last June, French financial contributions remain
modest (USD 165 million over the next three years). In
December, the Afghan Interior Minister approached the French
about a joint police training mission that would make use of
the structure and expertise of the French gendarmerie. The
French are actively studying this proposal. This is an area
where we could push for increased French involvement in the
civilian sector, although the GOF also has relevant expertise
in other aspects of development. End summary.

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DEFENSE RESTRUCTURING TO OUR BENEFIT
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2. (S/NF) Several convergent factors currently present
opportunities for the French to find additional military
capacity for Afghanistan. According to Jacques Audibert,
Director of Strategic Affairs at the MFA, the GOF is
assessing how to make more troops available for service in
Afghanistan and said that expected French drawdowns in
overseas deployments could provide possible additional
capacity. This has been confirmed by sources in the French
Joint Staff (ref B) and by Philippe Errera, Strategic Affairs
advisor to FM Kouchner. Specifically, the GOF is planning a
drawdown of military forces stationed in Cote d'Ivoire,
Senegal and Gabon as part of a restructuring effort prompted
by the 2008 White Paper on Defense and Security. Audibert
confirmed that France is also eyeing the EUFOR mission in
Chad, which is expected to end its mission in March, again
potentially freeing up additional personnel for other
deployments. Finally, Audibert expects the KFOR mission in
Kosovo to diminish by half as it adjusts to a "posture of
dissuasion." In Kosovo alone there are currently 1730
soldiers, so according to Audibert the change could free up
some 800 French soldiers for reassignment. In the coming
months a few additional troops are also expected to be
released from service in Bosnia as well.


3. (S/NF) Within existing deployments to Afghanistan, French
military planners are planning for a possible turnover of
RC-Capital to Turkish forces and France could then redeploy
its forces (some 1800 troops) to RC-East. In this scenario,
the French would stand up a brigade headquarters within
CJTF-82. Such a move would take advantage of the existing
logistics and force protection that they have already

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established for the deployment last year of a maneuver
battalion to Kapisa province. The national support base
would remain Camp Warehouse. In one possibility, French
planners have also envisioned carving off part of RC-Capital
for inclusion into RC-East (the Suwrobi district) and the
additional maneuver battalion would task force into that
area. If additional battalions are deployed, they would like
to go to Laghman province which borders Kapisa, again giving
the French military the continuity it seeks.


4. (S/NF) The deployment of Special Forces troops remains on
the table, but is considered particularly sensitive for the
French government due to those forces' more controversial
operations and the French view of them as a strategic
national asset needed to protect French interests. According
to our sources within the French military, the SOF is ready
and willing to deploy but is awaiting the political decision
to allow it to go forward.

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POSITIVE POLITICAL WILL
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5. (C/NF) While military planning seems to be proceeding,
senior French officials have been sending contradictory
signals on the possibility of French reinforcements in
Afghanistan. Defense Minister Herve Morin has recently
repeated several times that France does not envision
supplementary deployments to Afghanistan "at this time."
However, these public remarks have been widely viewed as
politically driven due to an upcoming January 28
parliamentary vote on foreign deployments. While the
Afghanistan deployment alone was already debated and approved
last September by a vote of 343 to 210, the vote on the 28th
will encompass all foreign deployments including defense
restructuring plans. Thus, it risks raising controversy
about drawing down troops from regions of historic national
interest (i.e., in Africa) to be sent to fight in Afghanistan
for what is still regarded by many as "an American war."
Post has interpreted Morin's remarks downplaying the
possibility of increased deployments "at this time" as merely
an effort to keep the issue of Afghanistan from overtaking
the foreign deployment debate while still leaving open the
possibility for the French President to announce
reinforcements at a later date. In a January 22 meeting,
Audibert confirmed this view, scoffing that Morin was merely
"doing his job" in the run up to the parliamentary debate.
In the same meeting, Audibert also stated very firmly that "I
have no doubt that President Sarkozy will be fully engaged in
Afghanistan" in the coming months. Strategic Affairs Advisor
to FM Kouchner, Philippe Errera, concurred on January 26,
stating that most of the changes in overseas deployments for
2009 are reductions in forces, based on right-sizing to
current needs. However, an announced increase in Afghanistan
deployments at this time risks creating the political
perception that the reductions are taking place solely to
increase deployments in Afghanistan, a linkage they want to
avoid.

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PUSHING FOR INCREASED CIVILIAN ENGAGEMENT
--------------


6. (C/NF) French officials at all levels frequently
reiterate the mantra that the solution in Afghanistan "cannot
be purely military" and will require significant investment
in governance, anti-corruption, development, regional
cooperation and increased devolution of responsibility to
Afghan officials. This comprehensive approach spurred the
French willingness to host the June 2008 conference on
Afghanistan and the December 2008 meeting of Afghanistan's
neighbors, both hosted by FM Kouchner. However, setting
aside French willingness to serve as a venue for high-level
meetings, French financial commitments remain relatively
modest. At the June conference, Paris pledged USD 165
million in reconstruction assistance over the next three
years, which places it near the middle of the donor
community, on par with the Aga Khan foundation. Additional
requests, such as for USD 100 million in additional funding
for the Afghan National Army (ref C),remain officially under
consideration, but have never been answered. The GOF also
has not yet responded to requests for increased security
assistance for the 2009 Afghan elections (ref D). French

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officials, most recently Political Director Gerard Araud,
have noted that we are "more likely to obtain troops than
money" in light of the current financial crisis. That said,
France remains one of the leading world economies that can,
and should, do more to promote civilian reconstruction and
assistance. It also has a wealth of development experience
from its historic involvement in Africa, including a long
history of taking on in their military deployments
reconstruction elements that could be relevant to
Afghanistan. One issue to overcome in this domain is finding
an appropriate vehicle for deployment of civilian experts
(Embassy note: The French categorically reject standing up a
PRT, on legal and ideological grounds that prohibit military
leadership over civilians. See refs E and F).


7. (C/NF) Afghan Ambassador to France Abdullah Omar recently
confirmed that during a December visit to Paris, Afghan
Interior Minister Atmar pushed for French assistance in
restructuring and training Afghan police forces, along the
lines of the French gendarmerie (which is a separate civilian
security force that is structured along military lines).
Philippe Errera informed post that a team of gendarmerie had
recently traveled to Afghanistan to explore ways to follow up
on police training. Their study, exploring if, and how,
French gendarmes could be involved in Afghanistan police
training, is due to be completed by January 26. It will then
be passed to both the Minister of Defense and the Minister of
Interior (who recently absorbed the French gendarmerie under
her authority) for approval. According to Errera, the study
should consider the appropriate vehicle for any deployment,
as well as where there could be increased value added. For
example, the French are looking at whether to increase their
presence in the EUPOL mission (currently France contributes
eight officers to the mission),to sign a bilateral agreement
with Afghanistan, or to push for an increased NATO role in
support of Afghan police. Errera said that the French lack a
funding and contractor system like that of the U.S., so he
doubted that France would become more involved in the basic
training that the USG does. Instead, France could consider
how to provide supplemental training, such as for officers.


8. (C/NF) Errera made the point that the GOF considers
current funding for Afghanistan to be adequate, as most
countries have fulfilled their donor pledges from the June
conference. However, the GOF is concerned that significant
parts of that funding are not reaching their intended
recipients. For example, he cited the case of a well-known
hospital called the Institut Meres-Enfants which is largely
supported by the Aga Khan Foundation. France increased its
contribution to the hospital last year, but was upset to
learn that the amount dispatched to the Afghan government was
considerably reduced by the time it arrived at the hospital.
French officials have raised this directly with President
Karzai, who reportedly has "promised to look into it." Such
experiences have done little to encourage France to increase
its financial contributions.


9. (C/NF) Comment. The French government is clearly
preparing for some significant requests from the new Obama
administration and appears ready to view such requests
positively. Expected defense restructuring in the coming
months will free up some additional military capacity that
could be deployed to Afghanistan. Given the upcoming NATO
summit in Strasbourg and Baden-Baden, there is also political
will for an Afghanistan success story, although ultimately it
will be President Sarkozy himself who makes the final
decision on any troop increases. France has a long history
of development work in Africa that we believe could be
brought to bear in Afghanistan as well. While the French
continue to shun the possibility of standing up a PRT, we
should be able to push for increased training and development
expertise to shore up French promises to find a
"comprehensive" -- rather than purely military -- solution to
Afghanistan. End comment.
PEKALA